Donald Trump isn’t
the only one taking a victory lap around the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release
settlement. Whether that settlement evolves into lasting, so far elusive peace
remains to be seen. One can only hope that Trump will retain his interest long
enough to give real peace a chance. Turkish president Tayyip Erdoǧan is also
basking in the limelight of his country’s emergence, or re-emergence, as a
major player in the Middle East. Erdoǧan jumped at the opportunity to include
Turkish soldiers in the peace-keeping force in Gaza
Key players at the Gaza conference
Ever since the end
of the Ottoman Empire in 1922 and the creation of the Turkish republic the
country’s leaders have tried to make the distinction between the modern, dynamic
Turkey and the moribund, lethargic Arab countries to the south. Indeed, the
antipathy was mutual. The Arabs resented the long years of Ottoman domination
while the Turks found it hard to forgive the Arabs for their alleged ‘stab in
the back’ when some of them supported the English in World War I. The Egyptians,
always sensitive to any hint of renewed Turkish control, often tried to
persuade me to move my investment management headquarters from Istanbul to
Cairo.
Now, with the new political, military and economic reality in the region, people seem to be willing to let bygones be bygones. Over the last few decades, the Gulf states have invested billions of dollars into the Turkish economy. And Turkish companies have expanded heavily in Egypt to capitalize on lower wages and easier access to the large African markets. Turkey has played – and will continue to play – a key role in Syria as that country tries to rebuild after the devastation of Assad’s rule. The Arabs also see the powerful Turkish military as something of a counterweight to Israel’s regional military dominance. Sometimes it’s nice to see a large, potential ally with plenty of tanks, drones and fighter planes of its own.
The very popular Turkish drone
Turkey’s new-found
place among Arab nations was displayed at the recent ‘Gaza peace’ summit in
Egypt. When several Arab leaders and Erdoǧan heard that Trump had also invited
Israeli prime minister Netanyahu they threatened to pull out of the meeting.
According to the not-always-reliable Turkish press, Erdoǧan’s plane was about
to land when he ordered it back into a holding pattern until he was assured
that Netanyahu was uninvited and remained in Israel.
Greece is not among those nations welcoming Turkey’s return to regional prominence. Many in Greece still see Turkey as a threat to its interests in the Aegean and Mediterranean – especially a potential threat to some of the islands close to the Turkish coast or to whatever hydrocarbon resources lie deep beneath the seas. Some also feel that the rapid growth of the Turkish defence industry has left Greece with its small defence industry very exposed politically and militarily. The Turks are quite good at playing the realpolitik game of economic and military power, and many in Europe are now calling for Turkey to become a key partner in the emerging European defence architecture. Greek leaders tend to get very nervous when other members of the European Union start aggressively courting Turkey.
Greek leaders may be exaggerating any potential threat, but their nervous response to Turkey’s growing domestic defence industry raises an interesting point. Why has Greece made no similar effort to develop its own significant defence industry? Turkey has become one of the world leaders in drone technology and manufacturing. Its defence exports are soaring. With all due respect to Turkish drone developers, led by MIT-graduate Selcuk Bayraktar, drones have become almost a commodity.
Greece has plenty of extremely talented engineers who could help develop a domestic drone industry. What is stopping the government from utilizing this resource? The size of the country is irrelevant. The Czech Republic, roughly the same size as Greece, is a significant exporter of arms, ammunition, military vehicles and other defence items. The Czechs do have the advantage of building on a strong defence tradition. When I visited one Czech arms manufacturer the CEO proudly pointed to a wall displaying all the company’s products. ‘We have been supplying weapons to just about every army in Europe for a very long time,’ he said wryly.
A small part of the Czech defence industry
Building a strong domestic
defence industry may offend those who thought the need for such an industry was
a thing of the past. Alas not, as recent history shows. Furthermore, the sustainable
economic benefits of a strong defence industry far surpass whatever the
thousands of passengers from massive cruise ships spend on beer, souvlaki and
Chinese-made trinkets on the jammed streets of Mykonos and other islands.
Instead of simply whinging about the growing Turkish defence industry, Greece could start to build a similar industry and reduce its reliance on fickle tourism.