tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58424793736995488132024-03-18T01:35:11.113+00:00Levantine MusingsThoughts on political, economic, social developments in Eastern Mediterranean countries from someone who has spent the last 25 years living and working in the area.David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.comBlogger239125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-7215243446765999312024-03-10T11:57:00.000+00:002024-03-10T11:57:50.362+00:00March -- The Worst Of Months And The Best Of MonthsFor many people, March is the absolute worst month of the year. The endless dreary winter with its dark chill seems to drag on and on. Spring is on the distant, ever-receding horizon as foolhardy crocuses and daffodils are beaten back into submission by yet another heavy downpour of cold rain and wind. <div><br /></div><div> But if you’re a young lad growing up in northern New England near Canada the month of March is not all bad. For one thing the skiing can be glorious with corn snow acting like thousands of tiny ball bearings on the bottom of your skies. You fly down the hill. Teachers in classrooms may be warning about the horrors of dangling participles, but your eyes are fixed on the near-by mountain as you wonder just how quickly you can get on the hill once he stops blathering.<div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI3A8TXVSRWVsDDGCbDtchyz36e0CBEqkVQmJcRcKgXothyphenhyphenKdCuhnfV3JpLQlUGpMWFCkq_ftabjzUfcyunByXSr_4JUkoIRyoHyZmy2iWGBCAmJyyh_sZLyRDIJMi50fLBjLvEMZm7WsK7-IPCXXayIale8C5djJt-eZYOPUO7X_MvvH7YEzWHgUHJeK2/s600/ascutneyprofile.jpg" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="325" data-original-width="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI3A8TXVSRWVsDDGCbDtchyz36e0CBEqkVQmJcRcKgXothyphenhyphenKdCuhnfV3JpLQlUGpMWFCkq_ftabjzUfcyunByXSr_4JUkoIRyoHyZmy2iWGBCAmJyyh_sZLyRDIJMi50fLBjLvEMZm7WsK7-IPCXXayIale8C5djJt-eZYOPUO7X_MvvH7YEzWHgUHJeK2/s320/ascutneyprofile.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Our local mountain<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>
Late February and early March – with cold nights and warmer days -- is also the time when the sugar maple trees release the sap that is turned into maple syrup. Groups of us would help the farmers by trudging through the snow to trees with metal buckets hanging from spouts hammered into the trees. We would dump the sap into large containers that were then taken to the sugar house where the sap was slowly reduced into syrup. It takes about 30 gallons of sap to make one gallon of syrup. Now, most of that manual labour has been replaced with plastic tubing that runs directly from the trees into the collection vats. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd_9P_Pn46En5eaTlLR6b1VsDIkfK-8g0FCeoINgI0npA4MhTjLhW6FzeBe_G_zeHaMHihmJVC9uovphjqDzIg8YxdSrvKpm4MVFe3ndhsU4g4TnrXCM7CAxRxIdSLyMNIO4X4zF5F7PS1xTdnevtce6fZg5EeBjEIGiDgEuT1MgF6SqhmO6MFpqx_EGXJ/s186/maple%20sugar.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="148" data-original-width="186" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd_9P_Pn46En5eaTlLR6b1VsDIkfK-8g0FCeoINgI0npA4MhTjLhW6FzeBe_G_zeHaMHihmJVC9uovphjqDzIg8YxdSrvKpm4MVFe3ndhsU4g4TnrXCM7CAxRxIdSLyMNIO4X4zF5F7PS1xTdnevtce6fZg5EeBjEIGiDgEuT1MgF6SqhmO6MFpqx_EGXJ/w185-h147/maple%20sugar.jpg" width="185" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Maple sap buckets and sugaring house</td></tr></tbody></table><br /> One day I had the bright idea of trying this at home. I duly tapped a huge sugar maple in our yard and collected about half a bucket of sap over a couple of days. Carefully timing my experiment with the absence of my mother I emptied the sap into a large pot on the stove and turned the heat up high. Slowly, very slowly the sap began to reduce. But the vapour with its cloying, sweet odour swept through much of the house and clung to walls like glue. At the end, I was very proud of my tiny glass of syrup. My mother, however, did not share my joy as fully as I had hoped, and I spent the next several days cleaning grime off the walls. And my next several allowances went toward a new pot.<div><br /></div><div><div> Most of the roads around our house were – and still are – unpaved. Again, a paradise for reckless young boys. Most of the winter the roads were frozen solid and covered with ice and a few inches of snow. Perfect for long sleds with heavy metal runners. At the top of the hill above our house, right by the old cemetery with its tilting headstones carved with barely legible names dating back to the early 19th century, we would choose teams and four or five of us would pile onto each sled. These sleds were almost impossible to steer, and as we sped down the icy track we prayed that this was not the time the farmer next door decided to take his tractor up the hill. </div><div><br /></div><div> By mid-March the roads had begun to thaw, and the hard dirt turned to deep, oozing mud that went up to the axles of cars. That was good news and bad news. Bad news that the sledding was done for the year. Good news that the roads would soon be impassable. That meant the school bus couldn’t make it down the narrow valleys or up the steep hills. No school bus, no school. The unofficial, indeterminate Mud Season holiday had begun. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0SNSOtZ2n1l5griq4cDhuCiMifSHA7oVCYbeBKdNaWtYma3QR58dpe76X-4ogCFbWg6Ws2UimQ9oyyf42YER86jtM4kLYBNPLrapWTYw9EJfp4NgHtkm_DmfQeT7pHldYRNij0QoUqa0Lo_B0mXJ2wi5np-hrPq2_9FgILRgSH_Zxqni6sgYSDk10MxWj/s1300/mud.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="866" data-original-width="1300" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0SNSOtZ2n1l5griq4cDhuCiMifSHA7oVCYbeBKdNaWtYma3QR58dpe76X-4ogCFbWg6Ws2UimQ9oyyf42YER86jtM4kLYBNPLrapWTYw9EJfp4NgHtkm_DmfQeT7pHldYRNij0QoUqa0Lo_B0mXJ2wi5np-hrPq2_9FgILRgSH_Zxqni6sgYSDk10MxWj/s320/mud.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tough for a school bus to manage</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /> Rather than sit home cooped up with hyper-active, under-exercised children my mother and some friends came up with a great plan. They packed us and our skies into a couple of cars and headed off for a Canadian ski area about 100 miles north of Montreal. We had no idea how long we would stay. No one could tell when the mud would dry out.
In the early 1950s the Canadian border was notional at best, and we soon found ourselves in a place with different road signs, some even in French. We weren’t entirely sure how to get to Mt. Tremblant. But there weren’t that many roads to start with and surely one of them would lead where we wanted to go – or so we thought. </div><div><br /></div><div>There was another complicating factor. We were not going to the chic side of the mountain with proper hotels and restaurants. No, no. We were headed around the mountain to a small lodge that had a bunkhouse nearby.
Long after sunset and after many false starts and vain attempts to communicate in the Canadian version of French we discovered the road to our side of the mountain. Actually, road is a euphemism. It was little more than an old, narrow, pot-holed slippery logging track that wound around the mountain under a canopy of snow-laden spruce trees and perilously close to a rushing stream filled with huge chunks of ice. </div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, we saw the welcoming lights of the lodge where my mother and sister were staying. The boys, however, were treated to the bunkhouse that resembled something out of a German POW camp. Two-tier bunks with metal springs and thin mattresses lined the walls, a single weak bulb hanging from a long cord provided the sole light, and whatever heat there was came from a seldom-lit coal burning stove. I now saw the purpose of my sleeping bag. At $1/night my mother pronounced it fine as she and my smirking sister headed off for the warmth of the lodge. Bunkhouse inmates got their food in the nearby Bear Den where meals cost 25 cents. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjigvMONd4XyV6NYE43HCeuRxpqoMtgTvMbZzIvhUf_Uikfog2rouK5YTaxWCSikPIVeLF7x0nxec_wMvFiBALtNbSNZSCcNmZBhBfJ8QCPcZvZd4Zvr1Kkc7SBdeMBfvR6-MFGBiPCZWAAMWyPFZa8Cs9TYDAc3cXo5ns2lno3u0ZEXaWkV-fOWqCIKiL/s450/tremblant1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjigvMONd4XyV6NYE43HCeuRxpqoMtgTvMbZzIvhUf_Uikfog2rouK5YTaxWCSikPIVeLF7x0nxec_wMvFiBALtNbSNZSCcNmZBhBfJ8QCPcZvZd4Zvr1Kkc7SBdeMBfvR6-MFGBiPCZWAAMWyPFZa8Cs9TYDAc3cXo5ns2lno3u0ZEXaWkV-fOWqCIKiL/s320/tremblant1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Morning on the top of Mt. Tremblant</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div> The next few days proved that the hardships of the bunkhouse were meaningless compared with the thrill of exploring this mountain. Canadian winters are not for the faint-hearted and sometimes made ours seem like a weekend in Miami. The air had a freezing January dry crispness to it and the snow was light and fluffy. Perfect. While my sister and her friends investigated the Austrian ski instructors my brother and I explored every trail on the mountain. Once we even made down to the chic side of the mountain and its village with Tyrolean look-alike buildings. No bunkhouses there. We scoffed at the relative poshness and considered them wimps for needing things like heat and hot running water. </div><div><br /></div><div> Eventually, all good things come to an end. About a week later we learned that the roads at home had dried out and school would soon start again. And I could turn my mind to more important things – like were the Boston Red Sox ever going to climb out of last place in the upcoming baseball season that began in April.</div></div></div></div>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-47016164526575899802023-12-30T12:17:00.000+00:002023-12-30T12:17:06.506+00:00Turkish Companies Are Expanding Rapidly -- Outside Turkey<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
good news is that many of Turkey’s leading companies are making major
investments and creating thousands of jobs. The bad news is that a great many
of these investments are outside Turkey. At a time when Turkey desperately
needs major industrial investment and increased employment these companies have
found greener pastures elsewhere.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">They represent a wide cross section
of Turkey’s large industrial base – textiles, glass, white goods, automotive,
pipe manufacturing, and many others. This export of investments and jobs is explained
in part by the simple fact that many of these companies are no longer just good
local operators. They have outgrown the confines of Turkey as their skilled
managers have grabbed growth opportunities spanning the globe. Turkish
construction companies have long been active outside Turkey but now they have
been joined by mainstream, large job-creating industries.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The additional bad news for Turkey
is that a number of global companies have taken a look at investment
opportunities in Turkey and have decided to go elsewhere. This list includes
Tesla, Volkswagen, and LG. There can be many reasons ranging from size of the
market, labour quality and costs, distribution, etc. for deciding </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">not</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> to
invest somewhere. I don’t know the specific reasons for these companies
deciding to pass on Turkey, but in my experience of cross-border investments
two of the major factors are rule of law and freedom from arbitrary regulations
limiting movement of capital. In both cases Turkey comes up short. Exporters,
for example, are required to sell their hard-earned foreign exchange revenues
to the cash-strapped Central Bank.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">According to a report in the German news
service </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Deutsche Welle, </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Egypt has been one of the major beneficiaries of
the expansion of Turkish companies. One factor is, of course, the lower wage
costs in Egypt. In Turkey the average monthly labour costs – for industries in
the regulated part of the economy – are about $500 per worker. Monthly labour
costs in Egypt are just $150. In addition, fuel costs are much lower in Egypt. This
might explain in large part why Turkish companies like Arçelik, Şișecam, Temsa
and Yıldız Holding have moved production there.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaDAylofcB982RSLcJqIZPoMc03pZaYHy_4BpsXAIYJ6ZQBpXBo8A7aAlLo55L9TzAjp2eBhUtcLPYHquvdvCojh8Xemc0NnZJAiBTuR45upz4kepsy1OIorXq3L8ltcTQV9E8D0RYFr-cKOSeGV2qYruKDmQFmZBvt-cdGo4djWe88dLJN-tMpgSadgHh/s326/beko.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="154" data-original-width="326" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaDAylofcB982RSLcJqIZPoMc03pZaYHy_4BpsXAIYJ6ZQBpXBo8A7aAlLo55L9TzAjp2eBhUtcLPYHquvdvCojh8Xemc0NnZJAiBTuR45upz4kepsy1OIorXq3L8ltcTQV9E8D0RYFr-cKOSeGV2qYruKDmQFmZBvt-cdGo4djWe88dLJN-tMpgSadgHh/s320/beko.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Beko has become a leading European brand</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Temsa makes buses and vans in Egypt
and exports them to the rest of the world. Yeșim Textil operates factories in
Cairo, Alexandria and Ismailia and supplies goods to world-famous sports
brands. The giant white goods company Arçelik, known in Europe for its brands
like Grundig and Beko recently invested $100 million in a new Egyptian factory.
Many other companies like Iskefe Holding, LC Waikiki and the Eroǧlu Group have
also announced additional investments in Egypt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">At last count about 70,000 people in
Egypt already work for Turkish companies. About one-third of all textiles and
clothes in Egypt are now produced in Turkish-owned factories. By the end of
2023 investments by Turkish companies in Egypt could total $3 billion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">This wave of outward investment by
Turkish companies is by no means limited to low-wage countries like Egypt. Borusan,
the country’s major pipe producer, recently purchased a pipe company in the
United States for $160 million and now has four plants in the US that generate
annual revenues of about $1 billion. Arçelik alone has 30 production facilities
in nine countries.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSsIi1ZFMKnu_1Oh6yhiIN4le8F6utJEhHGBqEFAbQ12EDnAKYgpYhipTZ8dDUWnc4Hk_vz04FakXsfPO1vZpOop_0vZCLOG2DmGJ_gXuk8XzxZlQJ4j7Rx5CaxUcZC_0b3tZqBcYzLZwq7jeGTnM1ch5z1gy4gHm55vmyT4bZfXwSMaa4IxqXvV5w-4rE/s450/borusan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="171" data-original-width="450" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSsIi1ZFMKnu_1Oh6yhiIN4le8F6utJEhHGBqEFAbQ12EDnAKYgpYhipTZ8dDUWnc4Hk_vz04FakXsfPO1vZpOop_0vZCLOG2DmGJ_gXuk8XzxZlQJ4j7Rx5CaxUcZC_0b3tZqBcYzLZwq7jeGTnM1ch5z1gy4gHm55vmyT4bZfXwSMaa4IxqXvV5w-4rE/s320/borusan.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Borusan pipe plant in Texas</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">The
huge, very successful Koç Group –</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">parent
company of Arçelik and many others – has been in a partnership with Ford for
decades. In 2001 the Ford/Otosan JV invested more than $2 billion in Turkey to
build a greenfield plant to manufacture light commercial vehicles for the
European market. Interestingly, in 2022 Ford Otosan acquired Ford’s plant in
Romania for €700 million. The Romanian plant has now become the global
manufacturing hub for Ford’s to light commercial models. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTDBt44Vy47RVKnbqWgtai6cee_Jezp15yiQfHKuAsdFl3ISpOX2jPjmNZ6fajQCfyCZKaQz0rPq_9lp1mNKQtGip2IN-LHA4Sr9CEwwOOHQ4sIzfaHOb2sOTPv1k5QiOqgq8XYz736f5zCU4d4Ju0333U_gwKq7ctYyakYV0z42kdb16bA_A0cn0nwU1g/s780/otosan.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="780" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTDBt44Vy47RVKnbqWgtai6cee_Jezp15yiQfHKuAsdFl3ISpOX2jPjmNZ6fajQCfyCZKaQz0rPq_9lp1mNKQtGip2IN-LHA4Sr9CEwwOOHQ4sIzfaHOb2sOTPv1k5QiOqgq8XYz736f5zCU4d4Ju0333U_gwKq7ctYyakYV0z42kdb16bA_A0cn0nwU1g/s320/otosan.webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ford/Otosan added a Romanian manufacturing plant</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Şișecam has long outgrown Turkey and
is now one of the top five glass manufacturers in the world. It is planning to
invest more than $5 billion to develop two soda ash mines in the United States
– not exactly a low-wage country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">While Turkey can take pride that
many of its companies have graduated to the major leagues of global industry,
the country is hard pressed to find similar high value-added, job creating
inward investment to equal the outward flows. Turkey’s </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">official</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
unemployment rate is just over 10%. However, few things are as misleading as
official unemployment figures. Leading economists adjust this number sharply
upward for huge marginal employment – several people at a petrol station doing
nothing and getting paid less, significant seasonal employment, and the large
unregistered segment in the so-called </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">grey economy</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> where wages are low
and infrequent and benefits non-existent.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Turkey’s new financial management
team has made an impressive start in turning around the disastrous economic
policies that led to spiralling inflation and a disappearing currency. But in
order to attract significant inward investment and stop Turkey from becoming
the Rust Belt of Southeastern Europe much more has to be done in areas like the
rule of law to convince global companies that Turkey is a safe place to invest.</span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-80074173742848465452023-05-29T12:14:00.010+01:002023-05-29T13:24:41.333+01:00Erdoǧan Proves - Again - That The Medium Really Is The Message<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span> </span>Once again Turkish
President Tayyip Erdoǧan has proved the accuracy of Canadian communications
theorist Marshall McLuhan’s statement that ‘<i>the medium is the message</i>.’ <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> <span> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">In
the recent Turkish presidential election, the </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">medium</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> was Erdoǧan himself
who succeeded in obscuring the real message that he is the one responsible for
driving the country near economic collapse and creating wide social/political
divisions. The winning margin was not huge, less than 5%, but demonstrated clearly
that his dominating presence on the campaign trail, generous use of economic
handouts, and domination of the media made all the difference. He succeeded in
identifying himself with just enough of the struggling sectors of society and
painting the opposition as gray men in gray suits who want to solve Turkey’s
economic problems on the backs of the poor. </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">‘I’m one of you. My
social/cultural values are the same as yours. I’m not some distant westernized
elitist who treats you like merely like wooden, unfeeling pieces on a chess
board.’</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNGdX_ZyhosRarrRmBZyEDXzw2j98fetTRMJI8oeTbNAU_22pYEpuw4Ew1cGqjrNKvBCciduJHD9LTqdRAgJBpCg51Hxn3oidkP3z9fudz1kywkGTDbV5E7lqUICkYZlKgfOOPp1HX60DXIdCXJcFocsk8B5dv06TXR95yF53SU-3gshoMsrhX-DGbzg/s276/champion.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="276" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNGdX_ZyhosRarrRmBZyEDXzw2j98fetTRMJI8oeTbNAU_22pYEpuw4Ew1cGqjrNKvBCciduJHD9LTqdRAgJBpCg51Hxn3oidkP3z9fudz1kywkGTDbV5E7lqUICkYZlKgfOOPp1HX60DXIdCXJcFocsk8B5dv06TXR95yF53SU-3gshoMsrhX-DGbzg/s1600/champion.jpg" width="276" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Winner and still champion</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><br /><span> </span>Erdoǧan
was clever in acknowledging the economic problems of the average citizen but
then strained all credulity by adding he alone could solve them. It’s a bit
like an arsonist saying he is the best person to put out a fire. He backed up
these statements by supplying things like free natural gas, discounted
electricity bills, and increased free internet usage for students. </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">‘Forget
the actual situation. Look at me. I’m helping you. The other bunch just wants
to take away everything you enjoy in the name of economic orthodoxy.’ </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">The
fact that such steps make a bad situation worse is conveniently ignored.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">The
government’s abject failure on the deadly earthquake – from amnesties for
substandard construction to slow emergency response – was obscured by promises
of rapid re-construction. Whether such rapid re-construction actually happens
is another question.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Will
Erdoǧan’s personal popularity withstand a further drop in the economy? There is
already speculation that he will try to recall the former deputy prime minister
Mehmet Şimșek to help run the economy. Şimșek used to work as a financial
analyst in London and at least understands the rudiments of conventional
economic management. For his sake I hope he
turns down the offer to return. It would be a no-win situation. If, by some
miracle, the economy improves Erdoǧan would take all the credit. If Şimșek is forced to continue Erdoǧan’s unorthodox policies and the economy crashes he
would take all the blame and quickly be forced out.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Much
of the western media is moaning about the ‘</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">end of democracy’</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> in Turkey
and the return to dictatorship. It’s not that simple. By most accounts the
result of the election really does reflect the will of 52% of the people. We
might not like the result, but it does no good to blame the voters or the
alleged failure of democracy in Turkey. Erdoǧan may have bent most democratic
norms almost out of shape with his patronage and bombast, but the superficial
norms of democratic elections were maintained. Rigging the outcome began years
before the actual election as the institutions of the state were moulded –
legally -- in Erdoǧan’s favor. He recognized that the simple truth that the
person who controls the process controls the outcome. The only surprising thing
for me is that his victory margin was not larger.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Therein
lies hope for the future. The fact that nearly 48% of the voters saw through
Erdoǧan’s charade is encouraging. Tayyip Erdoǧan deserves a victory lap because
this victory was his and his alone. The </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">message</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> was nowhere near as
popular as the </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">medium. </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">I doubt that anyone else in his party could have
pulled this off. Just look at the municipal elections when Erdoǧan was not on
the ballot. Almost all his surrogates in major cities lost. Even in this
election the opposition won majorities in all the major cities except Bursa.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">It
will be interesting to watch the political manoeuvring within the ruling AKP
party as well as the opposition coalition. There is already speculation on
post-Erdoǧan leadership of the AKP. Will Erdoǧan try to insert one of his
sons-on-law or will the very ambitious minister of the interior Suleyman Soylu
make a run for the top spot? I doubt very much that any of these replacements
can equal the sheer political magnetism of Tayyip Erdoǧan.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1aHb2unQVWadgoC6gX0YLV6cZ_Nvfk1vFRBVdUbvrGTHinHkabE7K-LxZwwnPjQP4SotEjU8k1x_I_FxxeY21iPokg7rwAWsdAJ0u0POJDIejItccftkCoiKnp9cKcsDD1hF-55EcBIYztWzMU_FdqgDSkHWU8LhSx2mxyTt-18gAeA77e4RjK30J-g/s259/possible.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1aHb2unQVWadgoC6gX0YLV6cZ_Nvfk1vFRBVdUbvrGTHinHkabE7K-LxZwwnPjQP4SotEjU8k1x_I_FxxeY21iPokg7rwAWsdAJ0u0POJDIejItccftkCoiKnp9cKcsDD1hF-55EcBIYztWzMU_FdqgDSkHWU8LhSx2mxyTt-18gAeA77e4RjK30J-g/s1600/possible.jpg" width="259" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Is Ekrem Imamoǧlu a credible challenger?</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">What
about the opposition? Will the coalition hold together or will the charismatic
mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoǧlu, make a run for leadership? He clearly
outshone the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu during the campaign, but
he was a good soldier and worked hard for Kılıçdaroǧlu. Turkish politics is a very
rough sport and I hesitate to make any predictions. Nothing creates enemies
faster than an early claim to leadership. There is very little that Erdoǧan
would not do if he sees Imamoǧlu as a serious threat to his own plans.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">There
will be many candidates claiming to be the only ones able to repair Turkey’s
economy and torn social fabric. For outsiders it will be fascinating spectator
sport. For frustrated, disheartened people inside Turkey it will be far more
serious.</span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-88508567767349278592023-05-17T09:19:00.012+01:002023-05-18T08:57:57.580+01:00Turks Got Their Strong Leader. But Where Will He Lead Them?<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span> </span>A good friend from
Istanbul succinctly summed up his feelings about the recent election results. <i>‘Welcome
to Venezuela without the oil.’</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Turkish
President Tayyip Erdoǧan is on track to defeat his opponent Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu
fairly easily in the second round of the Turkish elections If he does indeed win
there will be much gnashing of teeth in the large urban areas of Istanbul and
in the Western media. </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">How could this happen? How could this nightmare come
again and again?</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">There must have been massive fraud.</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Unfortunately, not. He didn’t need
to resort to much fraud for several reasons. When you control all the security
services, the judiciary and almost all the media you make sure yours is the
only narrative that gets heard by people every day and night. The message that all of Turkey’s
well-documented problems can be blamed on others, particularly foreigners, is pounded home again and again. Instead of being the problem you become the only solution.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8_ZuWUwvkcM0zEUKNJR51O8RYQeem5O7xZJW_dzUofsTrgd7R6ZjkMJBevfoq4DPZF0G40eshmAZNHHQFZOtJIddaX_QGlCK43_sS328kHa4RlqzAk_doPhJe3BP9vyPhpGgFSdVI9C67s_cgVykAWUh5aa_sxCDNSgVkY1VBxy2Ytrnf5KCh2rnYTQ/s275/again.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8_ZuWUwvkcM0zEUKNJR51O8RYQeem5O7xZJW_dzUofsTrgd7R6ZjkMJBevfoq4DPZF0G40eshmAZNHHQFZOtJIddaX_QGlCK43_sS328kHa4RlqzAk_doPhJe3BP9vyPhpGgFSdVI9C67s_cgVykAWUh5aa_sxCDNSgVkY1VBxy2Ytrnf5KCh2rnYTQ/s1600/again.jpg" width="275" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">What will he do with his latest victory?</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Turks abroad, especially in Germany
with its 1.5 million Turkish voters, were fed a daily diet rich in resentment
and alienation where many Turkish workers were portrayed as second-class
citizens. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The sub-text was simple. Only
AKP can restore your sense of pride and welfare in this place where most people
regard you merely as something they scrape off their shoes. The reality that the
vast majority of Turks and other immigrants in Germany are usually treated well
is glossed over.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Underneath these messages lies
another reality. Over the years AKP has built a formidable political
organization capable of turning out the vote. AKP </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">apparatchiks</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> are very
good at the nuts and bolts of successful politics. Voters can shrug off the
deafening rants filled with lies and distortions if the local AKP official can
help them slog through the bureaucratic quagmire that plagues everyone’s life.
None of this work is glamorous but it is the glue that binds voters to leaders.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">While
it’s obvious that overall economic conditions have deteriorated, much of the
blame has been shifted to vague, impersonal – often described malignant </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">foreign</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">
– forces beyond any reasonable person’s control. Abstract issues like independent
judiciary and human rights that resonate so loudly in European and American
media count for very little against the quality of local services.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirqo8KGa816eGRr5E2-BffeImjtx1Ub-Tn-ha8YSmYni69PB64Sonb0heOVDvicCwWlb3us0A7ioXpdzYRbzxXbyNR4gLcCZjAeXOs9_0dOAjQfX2Lk2kfqMzGlFZEKPOSClY8fQ4Gi-AT9HUsQDBsIzOzCEn0xywxrQVDLbzDxq4X13SbDaaN1DT37A/s225/kilicdaroglu.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirqo8KGa816eGRr5E2-BffeImjtx1Ub-Tn-ha8YSmYni69PB64Sonb0heOVDvicCwWlb3us0A7ioXpdzYRbzxXbyNR4gLcCZjAeXOs9_0dOAjQfX2Lk2kfqMzGlFZEKPOSClY8fQ4Gi-AT9HUsQDBsIzOzCEn0xywxrQVDLbzDxq4X13SbDaaN1DT37A/s1600/kilicdaroglu.jpg" width="225" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Nice guy, but still in second place</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">It also helped that Erdoǧan is a much
more seasoned, charismatic campaigner than any of his opponents to date. He is very
skilful at doling out patronage while blaring a simplistic, distorted
message to voters. Essentially, he is telling them that he is their only hope
against the forces of atheism, foreign intrigue, pernicious liberal influences and
others who would deny Turkey its justified place at the High Table of powerful
nations. The reality that his policies have driven the country into bankruptcy is
conveniently swept under the rhetorical onslaught of populism and nationalism.
The fact that he has turned an old saying, </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">a Turk has no friends but a Turk</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
into a reality is presented as a matter of pride, a badge of honour. </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Us vs.
Them!! Turkey vs. the World!!</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> Against this </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">tsunami</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> of conspiracy
theories, pride, and lavish handouts the country can’t afford it would take
someone much more charismatic than the mild-mannered Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu to survive.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> <span> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">One knowledgeable
friend said the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoǧlu, would have been a much
stronger candidate. But then, she added, ‘Erdoǧan would have cut him off at the
knees once he became a real threat.’</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">So what happens now? Given the
victory of populism and intense nationalism the country will undoubtedly slide
further from the West whose liberal ideals are not welcome in Erdoǧan’s Turkey.
But it is not clear where it will slide to. The country has no natural allies (Azerbaijan, maybe) and its relationship with Putin’s Russia is purely transactional. The Arabs?
How much are they really willing to help Turkey besides buying up valuable
assets? </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The security services will be
strengthened and any sign of dissent will be ruthlessly stamped out. Unfortunates
like Selahattin Demirtaş (leader of the Kurdish HDP party) and Osman Kavala (a philanthropist thrown in jail on some vague charge related to the Gezi Park protests in 2013) will probably remain behind bars. The
country’s economy will continue to sink with yawning budget deficits and a rapidly
depreciating currency. The Central Bank is beyond broke. I would not be at all
surprised to see some sort of currency controls, however disguised, to slow the
depreciation of the Turkish Lira. Such controls will be sold to the people as an
act of economic nationalism. ‘</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Let’s free Turkey from the evils of foreign
influence.’ </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> <span> </span></o:p></span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Erdoǧan
may occasionally sound bellicose on the international front, but in reality
there’s not much he can do. Foreign military adventures cost a great deal of
money, which he doesn’t have. Media barons will breathe a sigh of relief at
their continued financial well-being and continue to fill the airways and
papers with pro-Erdoǧan propaganda. Why bother with anything resembling real
news when that pays so well?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">I am reminded of what British Prime
Minister William Pitt the younger said when he learned of Napoleon’s crushing
victory against the Russians and Austrians at Austerlitz in 1805. ‘Roll up that
map of Europe. It will not be needed these 10 years.’ The same sense of sadness
and weary resignation permeates people who had hoped for a change in Turkey. It
will take time, but sooner or later a strong alternative to Erdoǧan will emerge.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-57208348337971903792023-04-18T11:16:00.000+01:002023-04-18T11:20:01.785+01:00Who Will Be The Lucky (?) Person To Win The Turkish Election?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">One can get a
headache focusing on all the conflicting Turkish election polls. According to
various polls President Tayyip Erdoǧan or his main challenger Kemal
Kılıçdaroǧlu is a) going to win easily, b) lose in a tight race in the first
round, c) win handily in the second round. Take your pick.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Meanwhile
headlines scream about election alliances being formed and broken. Little-known</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">politicians who will soon sink into their
well-deserved obscurity claim their support is crucial for anyone who wants to
win. This is their moment in the sun, and they are milking it for all it’s
worth. These fringe party candidates can only hope that even though they will
be lucky to get 3% of the total votes that will be enough to deny either
Erdoǧan or Kılıçdaroǧlu victory in the first round where the winner has to get
50%+1. Then their small votes become extremely valuable and can be sold at a
high price in a run-off vote.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">In reality, I
doubt anyone has a clue about the outcome. While it’s clear that Erdoǧan is
facing severe headwinds – economy, earthquake response, voter fatigue with his
bombast, etc. – it is not at all clear that the alliance of six parties backing
Kılıçdaroǧlu can generate enough excitement to beat him. There’s no doubt that
a large part of the voters would be happy to see the end of Erdoǧan’s 20-year
rule that has seen the once-promising economy crumble and concepts like the
rule of law casually thrown out the window. But is that enough to get them to
vote </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">for</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> Kılıçdaroǧlu? No doubt he is a nice, honourable person. But,
sadly, such people have a hard time in the full contact sport of Turkish
politics. Can Kurdish voters push him across the finish line? Will the Kurdish
support push the nationalists back toward Erdoǧan?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs-LyLAZPFPArWUDtXjiVgA1GDqf5MlQjsHUMvYRAbqcLgtTuQf77Xjl26ouYcaYf9y2ZZAFJ_lEnqTIUC3UFFIe-Wbxcmep04Ni0qLzRw9YX-CjUZo6ou8TIghFuNYveU1NJlKSwhNQIPckXt3B4alcXgDBCejpB6MbXOt5QsCuvRX5Z0kcNDnhKtkw/s275/voters.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs-LyLAZPFPArWUDtXjiVgA1GDqf5MlQjsHUMvYRAbqcLgtTuQf77Xjl26ouYcaYf9y2ZZAFJ_lEnqTIUC3UFFIe-Wbxcmep04Ni0qLzRw9YX-CjUZo6ou8TIghFuNYveU1NJlKSwhNQIPckXt3B4alcXgDBCejpB6MbXOt5QsCuvRX5Z0kcNDnhKtkw/s1600/voters.jpg" width="275" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Who knows which way their votes will go?</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">What about fears
that Erdoǧan will try to rig the elections if he thinks he is losing? More
easily said than done. The usual ‘retail’ method of vote rigging by stuffing
the ballot boxes is difficult because of all the observers at each polling
place. Also, it’s difficult to stuff enough votes at that level to make much of
a difference. If Erdoǧan does anything it will likely be at the ‘wholesale’
level of forming alliances with some very strange partners. He is already doing
this with Hezbollah look-alikes and other stray cats and dogs. He certainly
has enough money to buy additional support. There are many, many businesses –
mainly construction – who made billions during his reign and are nervous about
their future contracts should Erdoǧan lose. They would gladly contribute
whatever is required to keep the good times rolling.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrtxQOX-P1yh-qWfMM8t8eSDCoi_m7__ir19UFI0oriZadgpvWXbJbfUGHrdr7mKjUDyKE4Ori4bxSkrtZEnF7lv8n0NOEGfHuks0sr9pfFPsdKrdMv6mClyVASvBzAtsfNTxSdeX8YATvLkqFFXRwukyT0xPrLF7mS6n7G04Fy1RwnJmCxvrgC5ib-A/s305/winner.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="165" data-original-width="305" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrtxQOX-P1yh-qWfMM8t8eSDCoi_m7__ir19UFI0oriZadgpvWXbJbfUGHrdr7mKjUDyKE4Ori4bxSkrtZEnF7lv8n0NOEGfHuks0sr9pfFPsdKrdMv6mClyVASvBzAtsfNTxSdeX8YATvLkqFFXRwukyT0xPrLF7mS6n7G04Fy1RwnJmCxvrgC5ib-A/s1600/winner.jpg" width="305" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">One of these two will face severe post-election challenges</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">A scenario that is
discussed only in hushed, fearful voices is the possibility of staged violence
disrupting the elections. While the chances are slim that mobs inspired by
whatever candidate appears to be losing could ruin the election some observers
think those chances are not zero. It is unfortunately fairly easy to organize a
rent-a-mob in Turkey, and some people will be anxiously holding their breath on
election day and its immediate aftermath.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">One big problem
Erdoǧan faces is the changing nature of the Turkish electorate. He used to rely
heavily on votes from rural areas and smaller Anatolian cities to help him
overcome the so-called urban elite he claimed was closer to Paris than to the
‘authentic’ Turkish homeland of Anatolia. Now rural Anatolia has largely
disappeared after waves of migration to Turkey’s largest urban areas like
Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Adana, Mersin, Eskișehir, Bursa, and many others. As
we saw in the latest municipal elections most of these huge urban
agglomerations are now firmly in the control of Erdoǧan’s main opposition, the
Republican People’s Party. Erdoǧan may have retained the loyalty of the first
generation of Anatolians who moved to the cities, but their children and grandchildren
have become used to big city life and are less impressed by Erdoǧan’s rants and
raves than their elders.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Then there is the
question of what Erdoǧan will do if he, by some chance, actually loses. Will he
and his desperate supporters go quietly into the night? Will he go Full Donald
Trump and say the election was stolen from him? Will the winner -- aware of
troubles a resentful, angry Erdoǧan could cause – make some sort of deal with
him?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">If Erdoǧan wins
the post-election political scenarios are clear. Anyone, within his own party
or without, who showed the slightest reluctance to re-elect him will be cast
into the political and financial wilderness.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Less clear is the
post-election outlook for the country regardless of who wins. Unfortunately, it
will be extremely difficult to restore the economic balances easily. How do you
bring interest rates, the currency and inflation to acceptable levels without
further disruption? How do you restore issues like the real rule of law, transparency,
and, perhaps most important, hope for the thousands of young people who now
believe their best opportunities lie outside Turkey. One doesn’t know whether
to congratulate the winner or commiserate with the challenges he will face.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-27893638675557856652023-03-20T14:50:00.007+00:002023-03-20T18:54:50.553+00:00Is The Erdoǧan Era in Turkey Drawing To A Close? Maybe. Maybe Not.<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Maybe,
just maybe, after more than 20 years in power Tayyip Erdoǧan’s iron grip on the
Turkish presidency could be slipping. While the opposition parties may yet find
their usual way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, current signs
indicate a major change in Turkey after the presidential and parliamentary
election on May 14. The stakes are very high for both sides.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Even
if the opposition wins, however, it might discover that the election was the
easy part. Then what? Given the enormous domestic and international challenges
facing Turkey regardless of who wins the victor will enjoy a very short ‘victory
lap’ before dealing with decades of economic, administrative and judicial
mismanagement.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Beset by a weak economy, high
inflation, and Central Bank with only enough money for a couple of glasses of
tea, Erdoǧan was already facing a restive, angry electorate before his problems
were compounded by the disastrous earthquake in southeastern Turkey that claimed
about 50,000 lives and destroyed hundreds of buildings. Stories of shoddy,
sub-standard construction, amnesties for contractors and abysmal emergency response
from the central government have fuelled growing anger and fury among key sections
of the population.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> <span> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">The
opposition parties have for once learned something from their multiple defeats
over the years. Rather than enter the elections as individual parties – none of
which would ever get enough votes to topple Erdoǧan -- they have opted to form
a coalition, albeit an awkward one, of six parties and unite behind a single
candidate. The candidate they have chosen is long-time head of the CHP –
Republican People’s Party – Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu whose mild appearance and manner
belie his surname – Son of Swordsman.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ZWY5ZZGi8T8a57AGKXuDKAiZTUUdhYxK6-ZtsbdDOIgyC8MsKTBHWUgHhCATU1L8qC-K1d1ADMrqcx_1SmApUM7j7AYVSijM_evu5VsmPEjsrXzj9nR8ZUHfijTG-gl75kTFOOfxQ4ARm4A5w3ftg8wc7DOD9naFyE0vj_bpelIq5ugil0NhimX9dA/s225/kilicdaroglu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ZWY5ZZGi8T8a57AGKXuDKAiZTUUdhYxK6-ZtsbdDOIgyC8MsKTBHWUgHhCATU1L8qC-K1d1ADMrqcx_1SmApUM7j7AYVSijM_evu5VsmPEjsrXzj9nR8ZUHfijTG-gl75kTFOOfxQ4ARm4A5w3ftg8wc7DOD9naFyE0vj_bpelIq5ugil0NhimX9dA/s1600/kilicdaroglu.jpg" width="225" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Can Kılıçdaroǧlu pull off the biggest win of his career?</td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <span> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Some
say the 73-year-old Kılıçdaroǧlu lacks the charisma and forceful character that draw many
to Erdoǧan. Others opine that many in the country are sick and tired of Erdoǧan’s
bombast and hope for quiet competence over aggressive incompetence. Whether
that long-desired competence would be forthcoming with new leadership remains
to be seen.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> <span> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">However,
and it is a huge ‘however’, one should be very careful about writing Erdoǧan’s political
obituary. The political waste land is filled with people who underestimated
him. He is a formidable campaigner and his party, AKP, has proven to be a
well-oiled election machine. He has an intensely loyal voter base including
thousands who are desperate to hang onto the positions and favours they have
gained over more than two decades. The vast majority of the media is in Erdoǧan’s
control, and they face financial disaster if he loses and their lucrative
subsidies disappear. The security services and courts are also firmly in his
hands. He will also throw vast amounts of money at key blocks of voters to keep
them on his side.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmnzs9NRNRLXAnAmuL9TKoe4zJq2RF16svOeokEpksPHe6PDOpHBCtj_vhilNCO2i0ekU-ewg4HqTtQU0T2QsaZl2Q0kQNaBsgVi_SW6t5XDP_WvbwP9bJ7_MsEIlHAIHgyPPB_MUiuDFKpv1xZtk07XVV_FVJfvczcEnRT-xBrFi9L9IsU7wDNvE7RA/s300/earthquake.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmnzs9NRNRLXAnAmuL9TKoe4zJq2RF16svOeokEpksPHe6PDOpHBCtj_vhilNCO2i0ekU-ewg4HqTtQU0T2QsaZl2Q0kQNaBsgVi_SW6t5XDP_WvbwP9bJ7_MsEIlHAIHgyPPB_MUiuDFKpv1xZtk07XVV_FVJfvczcEnRT-xBrFi9L9IsU7wDNvE7RA/s1600/earthquake.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">One should never underestimate Erdoǧan's political skills</td></tr></tbody></table></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">In short,
he has all the tools to try and bend the results in his direction. This doesn’t
necessarily mean simply stuffing ballot boxes. For example, Kılıçdaroǧlu is an
Alevi – a distinct type of Islam considered by some orthodox Sunni Moslems to
be similar to the despised Shiites. Erdoǧan or his acolytes could fan those
differences in an attempt to keep the hard-line Sunnis from voting for
Kılıçdaroǧlu. There could also be a manufactured international event to keep
the secular nationalists on his side. But with less than two months to go until
the election Erdoǧan’s room for maneuver is beginning to shrink.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Kurds,
the largest minority group in Turkey with about 15% of the population, make up
the absolutely critical block of voters – literally the king makers. If they
stay unified – always a question – they have the ability to swing the election
to their favoured candidate. Conventional wisdom is that they will support
anyone who opposes Erdoǧan and who promises to make their life a little easier.
However, the opposition coalition is not united on this issue. For example, one
of the coalition parties contains hard-core nationalists who tend to view the
Kurds as a threat to the unity of Turkey. You can be sure that Erdoǧan will do
everything in his power to fracture the opposition coalition and he is not
above using the Kurds to do just that.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir5XRO_yhFe0IhH_3efgDISlirw68DqVOMZSftwneX_3oxk85O0dxjWKJngbmKpHLJTlcXy1VIQZLtZ3qzSGcI5djbQI9sv_nn0foXENxbypkwtSZRr94toxyN-_y6j7RjNvJok5tNksFf9sS--GiUekQmqrHHpO7KkolIRtz8yYWSoPjvxCs5qjIBTw/s279/demirtas.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="180" data-original-width="279" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir5XRO_yhFe0IhH_3efgDISlirw68DqVOMZSftwneX_3oxk85O0dxjWKJngbmKpHLJTlcXy1VIQZLtZ3qzSGcI5djbQI9sv_nn0foXENxbypkwtSZRr94toxyN-_y6j7RjNvJok5tNksFf9sS--GiUekQmqrHHpO7KkolIRtz8yYWSoPjvxCs5qjIBTw/s1600/demirtas.jpg" width="279" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start;">Selahattin Demirtaş, imprisoned leader of the Kurdish political party</span></td></tr></tbody></table></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Let’s
assume for a moment that the opposition wins and Kılıçdaroǧlu becomes
president. A first, millions will be thrilled that Erdoǧan is gone. When that
wears off things very quickly get interesting and unpredictable. The opposition
coalition has promised to change the governing system from a strong president
and weak parliament and return to the previous system where parliament was
supreme and the president had little power. The ability of the new government
to implement major changes will depend on the make-up of the new parliament and
which party has the most seats. I anticipate ‘vigorous’ bargaining among the
parties and a constant series of changing voting blocks depending on the
legislation being considered.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Spare
some pity for the person put in charge of the economy. His in-box will be
overflowing. What will he do with interest rates? How will the currency react?
How, exactly, will he tame inflation without hitting living standards even
more? Where will he get the money for all this economic restructuring? Will he
turn to the IMF? And on, and on, and on.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">What
about international relations? My guess is that there
won’t be much change. Probably a little less confrontational, especially with
the West. After all, that’s where most of the economic assistance could come
from. But the underlying delicate balancing act with Russia will most likely
continue. Who knows what Putin will do if his buddy Erdoǧan loses. He could
demand immediate payment for the previously delayed gas payments. Russia is
rumoured to have deposited more than $20 billion in Turkish state banks. That
could be quickly withdrawn. Sweden would probably, somewhat grudgingly, be
allowed to join NATO – especially if the Americans go ahead with upgrades to
the F-16 fighter jets. The volume and tone of the exchanges with Greece could
change. Turkey would still harbour a grudge about issues involving maritime
territorial rights or exploration rights for natural gas, but the temperature
of those complaints could be dialled down.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">I
have followed Turkish elections for more than 30 years, and this is by far the
most interesting, as well as the most important, one. The pieces of the puzzle
are constantly moving and only a fool would try to predict the outcome at this
point.</span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-78778703390661242002023-02-24T17:52:00.009+00:002023-02-25T09:11:07.625+00:00Will The Disastrous Turkish Earthquake Also Cause A Political Upheaval?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
addition to the thousands of personal tragedies following the recent disastrous
earthquake in southeastern Turkey the catastrophe has also stripped away the carefully
constructed mirage of competence and progress that President Tayyip Erdoǧan has
tried to create. Laid bare in one horrible morning were the consequences of replacing
the painstaking, difficult task of building solid economic and social
foundations with glittering, weak façades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpxCfDxTonG3FQuYGENaRy73o5Q_NrpBNK67yKId5EKmwzGCIOP_qd_c539WmOgPYG6XdbnD6iTVzmjhs7i8reZiVvqHzsMK7dV7iSsX3for9usakfo56PqwMxLmj7DW7mdSfxeKTUqkyhmoF96W-oGdQb91qKp1D956lBCP4VfQ7nmRLZ9MwpPBp7hw/s259/sorrow.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpxCfDxTonG3FQuYGENaRy73o5Q_NrpBNK67yKId5EKmwzGCIOP_qd_c539WmOgPYG6XdbnD6iTVzmjhs7i8reZiVvqHzsMK7dV7iSsX3for9usakfo56PqwMxLmj7DW7mdSfxeKTUqkyhmoF96W-oGdQb91qKp1D956lBCP4VfQ7nmRLZ9MwpPBp7hw/w400-h300/sorrow.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Grieving father holds the hand of his deceased daughter</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">As
we discovered in a recent trip to Istanbul, the façade is apparent the minute the
plane lands. The airport is huge and filled with modern conveniences, roads
leading into the city are wide (and usually jammed with cars), decaying
warehouses along the old port have been replaced with super modern shopping
areas and hotels with astronomic prices, a modern, clean metro system speeds you
around the sprawling city and under the Bosphorus. Alas, the financial
foundations of all these developments are as weak as the building foundations
in the earthquake zone. Most of these projects were financed with foreign
currency loans guaranteed by the Turkish government. With inflation at more
than 60% and the currency steadily losing value repayment of these loans is
becoming more and more difficult.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">A
cursory look at the country’s finances reveals a completely misleading picture.
Central Bank reserves, for example, have been propped up by short-term borrowings
(Swaps). Russia has deposited a large amount of foreign currency – the exact
amount is unknown – into Turkish state banks. Russia has also told Turkey it
can delay payment for the natural gas received from Russia. Turkey does not
recognize EU or US sanctions and happily trades with Russia and Iran. All this
helps in the short run. But peel away the gloss and a different picture
emerges.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Even
without the horrors of the earthquake the country was in dire financial shape. Without
all the short-term financing the Central Bank is left with </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">minus,</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> I
repeat, </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">minus </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">$45 Billion. As if this were not bad enough the Central
Bank is spending – wasting, really – up to $40 million </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">a month</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"> in a
fruitless effort to defend the Turkish Lira. The government will do everything
it can to keep the Lira from spiralling out of control downward– again – before
the presidential elections scheduled for this spring. On top of this already
shaky foundation estimates of the economic cost of the earthquake range up to
$100 billion. No one is quite sure where this money will come from. Even
Erdoǧan’s new best friends in the Gulf might hesitate at giving this much.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">But
the real questions – questions that will dominate the political landscape –
surround the squalid construction that cost so many lives. As survivors crawled
from the rubble, they blamed all the destruction on sub-standard construction.
‘Earthquakes don’t kill people. Badly built buildings do,’ was the constant
refrain. Reports quickly emerged of contractors using substandard cement, substandard
steel reinforcing rods, and, worst of all, building on or near well known fault
lines. This picture was dramatically reinforced with pictures of properly
constructed buildings that suffered little or no damage next to others that had
completely collapsed.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">People
are understandably furious and raising questions Erdoǧan wishes would stay
buried in the rubble. He has relied on construction to fuel economic growth during
his long stay in control. In return for winning projects contractors supported
the ruling party and took over the vast majority of broadcast and print media
in Turkey. Turkey has many zoning and construction regulations concerning
building in the country’s many and well-known earthquake zones. To say these
were ‘overlooked’ is putting it mildly. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buLMbZhp5rI&ab_channel=AssociatedPress">What is worse, and could come back to haunt Erdoǧan in the election campaign, is that this incestuous relationship with contractors was reinforced in 2018 when the government passed a comprehensive amnesty for these same contractors.</a> (<i>Click on this link to see a video of collapsing buildings</i>. <i>Since this video was taken the death toll has reached almost 45,000.</i>)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">While
it is clear that the earthquake and revelations about the government’s lax
treatment of building codes will hurt Erdoǧan during the elections no one
should assume that the opposition has an easy road to victory. After more than
20 years in power Erdoǧan controls every facet of Turkish government. The
judiciary, security services, mass media, education, health, etc. are in his
complete control. In the early years of his rule there were many qualified,
hard working bureaucrats in key ministries. Over the years they have all been
driven out and have been replaced with non-entities whose only qualification is
complete loyalty to Erdoǧan. Their personal power might extend to ordering a
cup of tea. Beyond that they won’t lift a finger before clearing it with
Erdoǧan. Whatever independent thought they may have is wisely left at home.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">Despite
this level of control the fact that the opposition has a real chance is a huge
credit to the Turkish people and demonstrates vividly the difference between
Turkey and other countries in the Middle East. Can you imagine Syria allowing
independent legal teams into the earthquake zone looking for evidence of negligent
construction? Not too likely. Turkey is extremely fortunate in having a large,
well educated, well-travelled middle class that shows every sign of rejecting
Erdoǧan’s dogmatic rule. The Turkish economy is open to the rest of the world
and many of its companies span the globe. In addition to the angry middle class,
many in the lower economic strata are also fed up with high inflation that
makes it extremely difficult to make ends meet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">It
is much too early to predict the outcome of the presidential election that will
probably take place in May or June. Despite the current anger about the
earthquake Erdoǧan holds immense power and can shower favoured segments of the
population with money. With votes for Erdoǧan and the opposition fairly close
it seems the Kurds will be the kingmakers. The Kurdish population is about 12 –
15 million (out of a total 85 million) and if they vote in a bloc they can tip
the outcome in any direction they want. While they have no reason to like
Erdoǧan there is no guarantee they will vote for the opposition. There will be
a lot of hard bargaining.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 36pt;">As
one young Turkish friend put it, ‘This is the most important election in the
history of the Republic.’ I think he is right. But spare some pity for whoever
wins. He will face a mammoth reconstruction job that will tax the skill and
energy of everyone in Turkey.</span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-64385057722923801052023-01-06T15:03:00.009+00:002023-01-07T09:59:19.771+00:00To Really Understand America Look Beneath The Bad (Very Bad) Amateur Theatrics in Washington<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Social media as
well as the regular press and broadcasters are outdoing themselves in
proclaiming the unbridgeable chasm in American social, cultural and political
life. According to the blaring headlines the country is about to break out in
yet another civil war – Red vs. Blue, Urban vs. Rural or any other opponents
one can think of. How much of this hysteria is based on some semblance of
reality and how much is merely overblown self-important rhetoric from observers
who need to spend more time outside Washington, D.C.?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yes, political
representation on the national level is evenly balanced between the Republicans
and Democrats. That balance in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. And
each party has its fair share of loons who forgot to take their medication.
They yell and scream in front of any media outlet they can find in a vain
effort to seem relevant. And the Republican agit-prop nonsense going on now as
they try to elect a sane Speaker of the House only strengthens this image of
total ungovernable confusion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">And the media, for
its part, is just as guilty. It loves the noise and pseudo-excitement. Instead
of bothering to investigate and report on serious trends in American life they
focus on the low hanging fruit of the ridiculous antics of some of our elected
representatives. Just look at the front pages of national newspapers or banners
screaming across many websites. Their whole focus is on superficial politics –
who is gaining in the polls, which congressperson was found in unnatural acts
with a goat, who is proposing that his or her opponent should take a one-way
trip to Mars? And who – hold your breath – was caught in a lie? Who needs the
sports pages or comics when we have this entertainment on a daily basis?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Listen to this
cacophony long enough and one can be forgiven for thinking the country is on
the brink of disaster. A lot of this noise is due to what I call the ‘Trump
Effect.’ Narrowly elected by the revulsion against ‘politics as usual’ Trump
soon revealed the truth of the saying by journalist H.L. Mencken more than 100
years ago. </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">‘On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will
reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a
downright moron.’</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> Now it appears that the worst of the Trump effect may be
passing. His faithful, the same ones who have followed every loud-mouthed huckster
throughout American history, may cling to him but as we saw in the midterm
elections normal Republicans are looking and voting elsewhere. There will be
deeply conservative candidates in the future but most of them will not manifest
the same deep personality disorders that plague Trump.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">If those
Washington-obsessed observers would take the trouble to look beneath the surface
they might find something interesting, counter-intuitive – the country tends to
work. What the observers miss is that the American federal system
means that the individual states, counties and municipalities actually control
most of the things ordinary people care about – schools, public safety,
transportation, public works, planning permissions, zoning. Unlike most of
Europe, almost all the expenses related to those issues are raised through state
and local taxes - not from the federal government. Folks in Washington can yell
and scream and dominate the headlines, but if you want a road repaired or school
improved you talk to local administrators. It really doesn’t matter if you’re
in deep red Wyoming or electric blue Massachusetts. The local issues are pretty
much the same. The solutions may vary from state-to-state but that’s the
strength of the federal system. One size does not have to fit all.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkOaDoH847wxU47opaPla2HQSKYK7iKuHHUfOEa_Ge_PUkVWxae9SewMWXQQGutQrfJKd6HkugOUh2Z9jE5aKRchscl9gxspcduAIfyMfDKa-GojgnDDqGoa97Th6Ins1gykPemzfL2F-auqibJvRq4HSHHe8bsZA1KdVNAlhI_1h1DCznWOXN7wadTA/s249/download.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="155" data-original-width="249" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkOaDoH847wxU47opaPla2HQSKYK7iKuHHUfOEa_Ge_PUkVWxae9SewMWXQQGutQrfJKd6HkugOUh2Z9jE5aKRchscl9gxspcduAIfyMfDKa-GojgnDDqGoa97Th6Ins1gykPemzfL2F-auqibJvRq4HSHHe8bsZA1KdVNAlhI_1h1DCznWOXN7wadTA/w249-h136/download.jpg" width="249" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Town meetings work much better than Washington</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">If the UK is serious about g</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">iving the regions
more power the first thing it could do is give those regions more power to
raise local taxes. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The much-discussed
devolution in the UK is toothless without local taxing power. I once asked the
mayor of Atlanta, Georgia how much of the city’s budget comes from municipal
and/or state funds. ‘More than 90%,’ he answered. We were seated next to a council
member from a large English community. He sighed in envy at his Atlanta
counterpart and said those figures were reversed in his town where more than
95% of funding came from the central government.</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqv1s6aOv0B9t6KW-x5j6I3pC4J6ffNJ3iWiHu8wYRrqiGoBE6-mQJ5m3xqG5dbgbH9hdUIvaZNfpmTBShb-ZXJAiqSJy_YeApZ9M-s2LmENOn6GGX2UJ2qdyCXQJlmE4YpAYOkfYuh45SQ7_doh2oXUVq-GCgZTPif2RzNC5ypVXcoLzT-83hOVkvcg/s300/images.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqv1s6aOv0B9t6KW-x5j6I3pC4J6ffNJ3iWiHu8wYRrqiGoBE6-mQJ5m3xqG5dbgbH9hdUIvaZNfpmTBShb-ZXJAiqSJy_YeApZ9M-s2LmENOn6GGX2UJ2qdyCXQJlmE4YpAYOkfYuh45SQ7_doh2oXUVq-GCgZTPif2RzNC5ypVXcoLzT-83hOVkvcg/s1600/images.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">State Houses like this have as much clout as Congress</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Years ago, I
covered local towns in Connecticut as a very junior reporter. I learned first-hand
just how much people in those communities cared about town meetings where taxes
were determined, school board meetings where difficult budget decisions were
made or – most heated of all – zoning board meetings where issues like green
space, industrial or commercial space were discussed often until the wee hours
of the morning. No one cared that much about what happened in Washington, D.C.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">So the next time
some blaring headline hollers about America coming apart at the seams just take
a deep breath and find a story about local citizens coming together on a local
project. Those stories don’t often make the front page, but they’re much more
important and affect many more people than what passes for so-called news these
days.</span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-67072660121332131842022-08-28T09:25:00.004+01:002022-08-28T14:25:31.836+01:00Tourism Officials Must Learn That Less Is More<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">How much tourism is too much? There seem to be at least two different approaches. One is to invite tourists to your
country to enjoy and respect what is on offer without changing your own traditions/values
or risk damaging the environment <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>just to
attract the mobs. The other approach is to attract the masses at any cost,
regardless of the damage to those traditions and the very environment that
makes your location attractive and unique in the first place.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Some popular destinations like Amsterdam
and Venice are finally taking steps to limit the ravages of mass tourism.
Amsterdam officials have gone so far as to ask tourists not to come there.
Venice is levying heavy fines for bad tourist behaviour like littering,
disrespecting monuments or – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1k8LOLllVA&ab_channel=VESAChannel">like two idiotic Australian tourists – taking power surfboards down the Grand Canal</a>. Venice has fought a long battle to save
its precious canals and ancient, fragile building foundations from the damage
caused by enormous cruise ships that blot out the sun and dump thousands of
tourists onto its narrow, twisting streets. Some of the beautiful, equally
fragile Norwegian fiords have also been plagued with these cruise ships that
can barely fit into narrow harbours. Fortunately the country is beginning to
learn the value of just saying ‘No’ and is taking steps to limit that damage.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsQThlWzXWFBrZYUtZmSuS17_gkBPmAuEt4UQIgsAjIPjhVPTQ5RhrgEKtS08k4JNhDIEIZmZtto_B9MQY-jSW-MKX3Wu_xQiDqyPu9mppLtpKfhuSwG8H81EKaI7EkShH9L_ZowvlhYpB-abFQ5d4IOAt5Ws5cn3ikdzGTR9gofEGHA40EF8uHJWdPw/s1300/spanish%20steps.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="955" data-original-width="1300" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsQThlWzXWFBrZYUtZmSuS17_gkBPmAuEt4UQIgsAjIPjhVPTQ5RhrgEKtS08k4JNhDIEIZmZtto_B9MQY-jSW-MKX3Wu_xQiDqyPu9mppLtpKfhuSwG8H81EKaI7EkShH9L_ZowvlhYpB-abFQ5d4IOAt5Ws5cn3ikdzGTR9gofEGHA40EF8uHJWdPw/s320/spanish%20steps.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tourism? Or Vandals sacking Rome -- again?</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Other countries like Greece seem to have
taken the attitude that there is no such thing as too many tourists munching
over-priced <i>souvlakis</i> and cheese pies while slurping beers as they
wander around some of the most precious monuments in the world. What should be
moments of reflection in front of some of these monuments has turned into a
cacophony of flip-flops slapping on the ancient marble, loud yells to have
friends join them for yet another selfie in front of a statue, moans about the
heat (didn’t anyone tell them about Athens in July), or comments about the lack
of a loo in the Parthenon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Athenian hotels now try to outdo
themselves with roof-top bars blaring music (?) until dawn and making life
unbearable not just for guests unfortunate enough to have rooms in the hotel
but also for the hapless residents of the neighborhood who actually have to get
up at a decent hour and go to work. But somehow those tax-paying residents
don’t seem to count for much in the eyes of city officials. Perhaps the city
will start offering them grants to leave the city in the summer and head to
some remote part of the country. God forbid they should start telling tourists
how to behave!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yes, Greece has had a very difficult economy
for the last several years and many people believe that mass tourism is the
best solution for their difficulties. But these people fail to realize that
this sort of tourism is rapidly destroying the very thing that makes places
like Greece, with its beautiful sea, idyllic islands, and much-overlooked
mountains so special. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Take Mykonos -- essentially a rocky,
barren island with very little water. When I first went there many years ago it
was known as being sort of bohemian, attracting a lot of artists with modest
talents and less money. Now it has been transformed into <i>the</i> party
island of Greece, jammed with wannabe Eurotrash and over-priced bars that don’t
open until midnight and produce ear-shattering noise that doesn’t stop until
dawn. Inevitably the drug culture is never far behind. The harbour is filled
with monster cruise ships waiting to disgorge unsuspecting passengers onto the
overburdened island to wander around the narrow streets and buy authentic
Made-in-China Greek trinkets and souvenirs. Smart passengers stay on board and
order another gin-and-tonic in the comfort of an air conditioned bar. Maybe
it’s not a bad idea to create an isolated spot like Mykonos – rather like the
plague islands outside ancient Venice – and avoid infecting the rest of this
beautiful country.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe9AcYiYXdHxWxjnT70TW_3N6X3JZqMONs8D8A6z68jhxKFRmXtL7ya4yBtxwVtZs-AmEKd_LDUYYKHcPopB5gDjAaaNqODjjh_ssH_Hsq-8b4oVQewNxy0y5rgY6hZSoabO4hxKZBozkpPJxCU1wbN_TxTbf7pbPzh15v6ZnePDGa8M5hENI-B0tzeQ/s300/cruise%20ship.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe9AcYiYXdHxWxjnT70TW_3N6X3JZqMONs8D8A6z68jhxKFRmXtL7ya4yBtxwVtZs-AmEKd_LDUYYKHcPopB5gDjAaaNqODjjh_ssH_Hsq-8b4oVQewNxy0y5rgY6hZSoabO4hxKZBozkpPJxCU1wbN_TxTbf7pbPzh15v6ZnePDGa8M5hENI-B0tzeQ/s1600/cruise%20ship.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Not sure this what Odysseus had in mind</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">All these thoughts came to mind when my wife and I took a break from
Greece and spent a delightful week in the Alsace region of France. The natural
beauty – with hundreds (maybe thousands) of vineyards stretching from the lush
green valley up to</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">the foothills of the Vosges mountains
– is stunning. These vines produce several delicious wines such as <i>Riesling </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and <i>Gewürztraminer. </i>Picturesque
villages with rich history dot the area. Yes, the area is filled with tourists
in August but because of the infrastructure and general attitude toward tourism
in general it was not unbearable</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdTEYlt1Jz56G7cY67_3tBh3Ds9U-sRuOfLTvp4pDP8TLPac55y43McB5TE8ojMwRq4MOsJfMVjHjqKRLyZLBO45fHQL-XHFZpXLH-nzbo_SxzIaLZxt_-Ka0FEn77eEUsjv5z8FI13KZHvuFKZwrXDZhmW4UMBkSdqtCeLUw56XFd9hoVV1k251mpaQ/s227/alsace.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="122" data-original-width="227" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdTEYlt1Jz56G7cY67_3tBh3Ds9U-sRuOfLTvp4pDP8TLPac55y43McB5TE8ojMwRq4MOsJfMVjHjqKRLyZLBO45fHQL-XHFZpXLH-nzbo_SxzIaLZxt_-Ka0FEn77eEUsjv5z8FI13KZHvuFKZwrXDZhmW4UMBkSdqtCeLUw56XFd9hoVV1k251mpaQ/s1600/alsace.jpg" width="227" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Beautiful Alsace</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The superb public transport system means
you don’t really need a car. My wife likes nothing better than scouring local
bus schedules and she quickly found frequent, inexpensive buses from Colmar to
the beautiful surrounding villages. The city of Colmar also offers a free small
bus service within the city limits. Restaurants and bars were full, but unlike
Greece, they were not allowed to infringe on the local lifestyle. They closed
at reasonable times (midnight or at the latest 1:30 am) and the noise was
moderate. The overall attitude seemed to be ‘Come and enjoy what we have but
don’t expect us to destroy our lifestyle or environment just to cater to bad
behaviour. Take us as we are or don’t come.’</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">One wishes that Greek tourism officials
would learn the lesson that less is often more. Do they really appreciate the
beautiful and fragile ecosystem of their own country? Or do they think that chasing
the last Euro from mass tourism is worth the destruction? Can they can develop
the courage and, yes, the self-respect to discourage the worst of mass tourism that
only drives away those people who really want to enjoy the culture and natural beauty
of Greece? Overall tourist numbers may decline but the quality of the tourist
experience – as well as the spending – will sharply increase without damaging the
social or environmental fabric of the country.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-33898339780395228992022-01-06T09:12:00.000+00:002022-01-06T09:12:19.699+00:00The Real Betrayal of Turkey<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Among the many ways that Tayyip Erdoğan has damaged
Turkey – economic collapse, corruption, perversion of the judicial system,
international isolation<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>– perhaps the worst
is the destruction of Turkey’s once promising reputation as an up-and-coming,
serious country.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Now the mere mention of Turkey’s name is greeted like
a loud belch in church – with withering silence and not-so-quiet questions
about ‘who let <i>him</i> in the door.’ Turks leading successful lives abroad
used to be proud of the rapid strides their homeland had made. Now they wince
in embarrassment when someone recounts Erdoğan’s latest folly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In short, he has obscured the real Turkey – a country
endowed with millions of hard working and smart people, beautiful landscapes, fascinating
multi-cultural, rich history stretching back to the dawn of civilization, a
dynamic cultural environment, and an economy – with rational management – that can
become the strongest between Germany and India. Worst of all, perhaps, are
the damaged dreams of the young generation.<br /><o:p></o:p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivBD5qyvSiD21Dpp7eTpzLs4GAxzTtnM0qjUDyt-FQ8CBAxma8CoGay8S8iMRUECHYsjT5Tc80qLEocnC_n6OxX3916xu0aH9TI8u8Zvd-oSXgXahkkPKUZhPrIgx9mJM3bmNVRS1V8uEZACCv0o_kjh8Kt5NRzkrYHRZxGYK9XANKQP23hW06w6qoNA=s300" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivBD5qyvSiD21Dpp7eTpzLs4GAxzTtnM0qjUDyt-FQ8CBAxma8CoGay8S8iMRUECHYsjT5Tc80qLEocnC_n6OxX3916xu0aH9TI8u8Zvd-oSXgXahkkPKUZhPrIgx9mJM3bmNVRS1V8uEZACCv0o_kjh8Kt5NRzkrYHRZxGYK9XANKQP23hW06w6qoNA" width="300" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The young generation feels betrayed</td></tr></tbody></table></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Now, unfortunately, all this potential is obscured
under the dark cloud of Erdoğan’s bizarre vision of a country beset on all
sides with foreign and domestic enemies whose only perceived goal is to throw
Turkey off its pre-ordained, glorious upward path paved with ever deeper layers
of his beloved concrete. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> That is the perverted </span>vision that dominates news about Turkey. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Seldom has a country’s leader travelled the world as
much as he has and learned so little. He has the same huge chip on his shoulder
that he did growing up in one of Istanbul’s toughest neighbourhoods. Instead of
profiting from the thousands of extremely well educated, well-travelled, multi-lingual
business people, academics, scientists, cultural leaders and others Erdoğan
regards them as enemies. Turkey used to have a very skilled, successful
diplomatic service that was the envy of many countries. Now the only
qualification for senior diplomatic rank seems to be loud praise for the <i>Reis</i>
– the boss. He has notoriously thin skin and blows up at any story that doesn’t
lavish the type of praise that would make even Caligula blush. No one is quite sure
who, if anyone, he listens to. His circle of ‘advisers’ seems to be limited to
family and utter sycophants desperately hanging on to the only job they can
get.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiiTGbQvRy7OZcFq_VHYjP12PF7sJR-7TvtXpD1P2RsOuysomm-hoqd-6zAXvCyjkGuFZ-wh1Ad1xXWl9L7Nl2XUDipmfrmilW-vBgQ4nJlNUnGKZjk7rc3AvfC4XCqovESTbTGBy5UQ8wi5jmtxHG5qjiGhOulupSv-NZ4oukWJziFsp9o4yy7lHk7QA=s301" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="167" data-original-width="301" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiiTGbQvRy7OZcFq_VHYjP12PF7sJR-7TvtXpD1P2RsOuysomm-hoqd-6zAXvCyjkGuFZ-wh1Ad1xXWl9L7Nl2XUDipmfrmilW-vBgQ4nJlNUnGKZjk7rc3AvfC4XCqovESTbTGBy5UQ8wi5jmtxHG5qjiGhOulupSv-NZ4oukWJziFsp9o4yy7lHk7QA" width="301" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Turkey's leading business group now a target of the president's ire</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">All this would be somewhat comical if it didn’t have
serious ramifications. Take international relations for a start. Erdoğan’s
Turkey has become toxic. It is completely isolated with no
allies. A once-proud country is now the butt of jokes circulating widely on
social media. As far as the economy is concerned, no serious investor wants to
touch it. I am aware of several projects that have been put on hold because of
the dense fog of uncertainty surrounding the country. As the Turkish Lira collapsed
the government came up a half-baked scheme trying to entice people holding foreign currency bank accounts to convert them to the local currency. Despite massive
publicity and twisting the arms of state run banks less than 2% of all bank
deposits have been converted. Now the government wants to make exporters
convert 25% of their hard-currency profits into Turkish Lira. Brilliant. How
are they supposed to pay for all the imported raw material and intermediate
goods that go into Turkish exports? Whoops! Forgot about that one.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">According to recent polls Erdoğan’s popularity is
sinking fast. With the opposition finally uniting he has a good chance to lose
the next election scheduled for 2023. Faced with diminishing projects for
staying in power through normal elections he is lashing out in desperation. His
latest move is to threaten the young, dynamic mayor of Istanbul with harbouring
‘terrorists’ – i.e. anyone who disagrees with Erdoğan – and thereby fabricate
an excuse to remove him from office. The real problem with the mayor – Ekrem
Imamoğlu – is that he is from the major opposition party and defeated Erdoğan’s
hand-picked candidate by 800,000 votes in the last election. Such a move would
most likely backfire and hurt Erdoğan even more. But, unfortunately, the
country seems to have moved beyond rational calculation. As Erdoğan schemes and
fights for survival it is almost impossible to predict the immediate future
with any degree of certainty.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In short, Erdoğan is trying to convert a rich,
dynamic, incredibly complex country into a pale, narrow, ever-fearful,
ever-angry, caricature. Ultimately he will fail. But at what tragic, avoidable
cost?<o:p></o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-74024471627760985512021-12-21T10:14:00.003+00:002021-12-21T10:24:07.788+00:00You Can't Fool All The People All The Time<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan would do
well to remember that he came to power more than 20 years ago on the back of a total
economic collapse – complete with 1,000% interest rates, disappearing currency,
and failing banks – generated by the sheer incompetence, corruption and
economic illiteracy of the governing politicians at the time. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Technocrats in the Treasury and Central Bank
at the time, in contrast, were extremely well educated and capable. They knew
exactly what was happening but no one in power wanted to hear their
warnings. After the political leaders had destroyed the economy these same technocrats
designed a program to pull Turkey out of its economic and financial morass. The
IMF adopted this program and the country enjoyed a few years of rational
economic behaviour. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Unfortunately, as Erdoğan grew stronger he
threw away these training wheels and thought he and his cronies could manage
things themselves. As one very experienced analyst put it, ‘he replaced this
high quality group with sycophants who know nothing and are proud of their
ignorance.’<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">So far this year the Turkish Lira has lost
more than 56% in value. Most analysts estimate real annual inflation is well
over 30% and promises to climb higher. This brought back memories of the
hyper-inflation and sky-high interest rates of the 1990s when I was managing
money in Turkey.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4ygJLxvooD1sKlkr5yh9njJF2XQ-uods2RtaF6ZnuAt91Ah_Yv1boUoO3dG5a5WtqLQjyPJGZmJ7oEyhEW3Fgs1LoQRdyjJ7ctqFhC7UN4UZ-B_urDyEYmdsbulDhPU0Fznt5_uJbqgWWrNZe17rkZxvvFqa_Hu9cmjJ9W6n9GUiMkS-g1HG55Vz7cg=s259" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4ygJLxvooD1sKlkr5yh9njJF2XQ-uods2RtaF6ZnuAt91Ah_Yv1boUoO3dG5a5WtqLQjyPJGZmJ7oEyhEW3Fgs1LoQRdyjJ7ctqFhC7UN4UZ-B_urDyEYmdsbulDhPU0Fznt5_uJbqgWWrNZe17rkZxvvFqa_Hu9cmjJ9W6n9GUiMkS-g1HG55Vz7cg" width="259" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will the captain go down with the ship?</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">At least some senior bankers and a few
politicians in the ‘bad old days’ knew the country’s financial situation with
hyper-inflation and high interest rates was unsustainable – or so they said after
a couple of drinks. But they were making so much money dealing in
super-high-yielding short term government debt that they had no motivation to
change anything. They all knew the music would end one day and hoped they were
nimble enough to bail out before the inevitable crash. A few were that nimble.
Most weren’t.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The major difference now is that instead
of letting interest rates rise to counter currency weakness and dampen
inflation Erdoğan has forced them lower in the bizarre belief that these lower
rates will help reduce inflation instead of pouring gasoline on the fire. He
points to Turkey’s relatively high growth rate as proof of his theory but
forgets that even in the disastrous 1990s the country’s high growth rate didn’t
stop the collapse. One observer likened the situation to building a sky-scraper
on an extremely weak foundation. At the slightest tremor it will all come
crashing down. Erdoğan fantasizes about copying the Chinese economic model,
but, as one financial analyst put it, all he is doing is re-creating the
Zimbabwe meltdown. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Erdoğan claims his policies will lead to
Turkey’s economic independence and freedom from the pernicious influence of
global economic and financial trends. A few brutal home truths strip the gloss
off this rhetoric.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">With
few natural resources Turkey is one of the least independent, most dependent,
vulnerable economies in the world. The vast majority of its energy and
industrial raw material and intermediate goods is imported. Once basically
self-sufficient in food the country now has to import substantial amounts of
basic food. Covering your eyes and ears to these global realities isn’t going
to change the situation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
much vaunted export boom is made up largely of imported parts merely assembled
and re-packaged in Turkey. The Turkish value-added in these exports is
somewhere around 10%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
Treasury, banks, and most companies rely heavily on massive hard currency
inflows to stay afloat. Any effort to curtail these flows for the sake of
so-called ‘independence’ would be catastrophic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">On top of this the Central Bank is nearly
broke and would have trouble coming up with money for a decent cup of coffee
let alone serious support for the ailing state banks. The Central Bank is also wasting
billions of scarce US dollars by selling them in hopes of stopping the erosion
of the Turkish Lira. It’s not working. One of the geniuses in the ruling party
even called for Turkish businessmen to become the new national martyrs in
gaining the country’s economic ‘independence’ by defending the lira by dumping
all foreign currency. Not surprisingly this call to self-sacrifice was unheeded.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoN98LgyDYXiOPcsIeUwcHlM3swE_Hcw9VjC-pJ4Kt0Jf5Zk-iylQD1EnfcGw4SOGBvUHeQiDoxZ9nFqvqV__o9fERXmY_zI1ujNDuEB-NwINS5Hb0FHWylgDp8T47arDXre4qBvBCnHEqVGdw9-IxgRDMr8vE_LE9UM7zEHb87oXJnAGsZP_L2cZOpg=s299" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="299" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoN98LgyDYXiOPcsIeUwcHlM3swE_Hcw9VjC-pJ4Kt0Jf5Zk-iylQD1EnfcGw4SOGBvUHeQiDoxZ9nFqvqV__o9fERXmY_zI1ujNDuEB-NwINS5Hb0FHWylgDp8T47arDXre4qBvBCnHEqVGdw9-IxgRDMr8vE_LE9UM7zEHb87oXJnAGsZP_L2cZOpg" width="299" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Life is getting very expensive for her<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">One can understand Erdoğan’s frustration. His
poll numbers are dropping fast and none of the old strategies to rally his
supporters seems to work. The days of vast, expensive infrastructure programs
are over. In fact it’s worse than that. Some economists and bankers put the
country’s hidden liabilities related to some of these projects at more than $40
billion. The government guaranteed foreign currency loans used by favoured
contractors but these are never seen on national accounts because they are
buried deep in the budgets of various ministries.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">So there’s not much left to hand out to
his circle of crony contractors. Erdoğan recently approved a large increase in
the minimum wage. But with inflation roaring ahead this won’t bring much relief
to the struggling workers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Erdoğan has very few cards left to play
and maybe he thought this last, desperate throw of the dice would re-create
some of the magic that has kept him in power for so long. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But all it’s proving is that you can’t fool
all the people all the time. He is desperately trying to distract attention
from the economic collapse with foreign policy manoeuvres like opening talks
with Armenia or aggressive behaviour in the Eastern Mediterranean. Recent
polls, however, show clearly that the public is not distracted at all and
focuses mainly on the deteriorating economic realities of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>daily life.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">Elections aren’t scheduled until 2023, but
an economic collapse could bring them forward. If, by some chance, Erdoğan
loses then the more interesting question is what type of government will follow
him. I desperately hope it is more than a re-creation of the failed pre-Erdoğan
governments. The Turkish people deserve something new, something that reflects
the rapidly changing world rather than re-hash the stale old models.<o:p></o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-47128069105047163372021-01-25T14:21:00.002+00:002021-01-25T15:25:12.172+00:00Donald Trump Is Merely The Symptom Of Serious Underlying Issues In America<p> <i>From time to time this blog invites contributions from readers who often bring a fresh approach to the issues we discuss. <b>Peter E. Gumpel</b> is an American management consultant and lawyer who has been based in Vienna for several years. Here he encourages us to focus more on the underlying problems that created Donald Trump rather than on the behavior of the man himself.</i></p><p><i> </i></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I always expected that Donald Trump would have the character arc (to
use screenplay terminology) of a Greek tragedy, reaching for the utmost heights
and then flaming out to utter ignominy, both by reason of his own hubris and helped
by the opponents who wanted him to fail from the start. But I hadn’t expected
that the tragedy would turn into farce – with the U.S. Congress being invaded
by a mob of hooligans looking straight out of the Star Wars stage set or a gay
Halloween gala.</span></em><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Upfront I should make the obligatory disclaimer that I didn't vote for Mr.
Trump, given his tubthumping against Mexicans and Muslims and lack of
qualifications for the job, remembering him from the 1980s New York media scene
and having flown on the Trump Shuttle. <o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">On the other hand, it is important to understand why many Americans -
not necessarily "deplorable" - voted for him. They were not sharing in
the expanding national wealth, their children or brothers or sisters were being
sent to fight in never-ending wars, and the powers that be" <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>were demonstrably not serving the people's
interest but rather those of their donors. </span></em><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Indeed, many people who put their faith in Trump were acting on similar
motivations to those who had voted for Obama - looking for "hope and
change" and a different direction for the country - including voters
disappointed by Obama for having followed much of the same policies as the G.W.
Bush administration, not only in foreign policy but also domestically. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump didn't actually help these people much,
but as a skillful populist he had a visceral understanding of their desires and
gave them hope. <o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In many ways Trump can be regarded as a symptom of those underlying
problems rather than the problem itself. If the Biden Administration simply
restores the </span></em><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ancien
régime </span></em><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">without trying to solve those underlying issues issues facing the broad
American population a new and more virulent Trump could emerge in several years.
<o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This includes addressing the wealth disparities that have been reaching
almost Ancient Egyptian proportions, mainly by reason of the massive
quantitative easing and loose monetary policy under Jerome Powell (and earlier
Janet Yellen), which are boosting asset prices (stocks, real estate) to
stratospheric heights, combined with the Covid relief programs which are
funneling huge sums to the largest corporations while handing out chump change
to the broad population, at the same time as small businesses are being forced
to shut down. <o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Two of the main problems are, of course, the inordinately expensive
medical and higher education systems, which have spiraled out of control in the
last decades. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For young people starting
out today, entering the workforce saddled with student debt, not being able to
buy a house and start a family, the situation is especially tough – no longer
is the young generation expecting to be more successful than the prior one.<o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The two solutions are either on the right - going back to the purer market
economy of the Herbert Hoover era - or on the left - adopting social support systems
as in Europe. The latter appears more feasible as no one wants to lose
entitlements. Indeed, German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck – certainly no
left-winger - realized already 150 years ago that such programs can be
essential to preserve social cohesion. But, unfortunately, it doesn't look like
today’s mainstream Democrats or Republicans have the will to tackle – let alone
solve -- these problems. They would much rather take political pot-shots
at each other rather than do some real work.</span></em><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">One of these urgent national issues is the increasing power of Big Tech,
which has just proved it can even shut down an American president, albeit an
unpopular one in his last days, with attendant risks to free speech and
democracy. Not content to hoover up virtually all private data of citizens, who
insouciantly permit this to happen, Big Tech is setting itself up as the final
inquisitor and arbiter of “truth” and permitted speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Controlling Big Tech will be a Herculean task
and needs someone with the forceful personality and trust-busting inclinations
of a Theodore Roosevelt.<o:p></o:p></span></em></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 24pt; text-align: justify;"><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">After the fall of the populist disrupter
Napoleon Bonaparte and restoration of the French </span></em><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ancien régime</span></em><em><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.5pt; font-style: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> in 1815, the Bourbons were accused
of “learning nothing and forgetting nothing,” putting the old bureaucrats back
in charge while not addressing the root causes of the revolution that had overthrown
them. It is imperative that the restored Biden team not fall into this trap but
rather deal directly with the issues that created Trump in the first place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></em></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-47625519919530675572021-01-19T16:25:00.014+00:002021-01-19T18:27:21.831+00:00Why Would Anyone Really Want This Job?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">I had a terrible nightmare last night that
I was going to be inaugurated president of the United States today. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My wife was terrified when I woke up
screaming, ‘No, No, No. I demand a recount! There’s no way I could have won!’<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>My
breathing gradually returned to normal and I calmed down with the ‘nice cup of
tea’ that my wife insists is the cure for everything – probably even Covid-19.
‘There, there. Don’t worry. You’re nowhere near Washington. That nice Mr. Biden
is set to take the oath of office.’<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT-A-3riMZeD6corh7iKuu153BeBEZEHEGuUTRDQfutJMKAibQ-3P-kqTRa__XixIEy3zCHR9DDD8uqCh_QRrso3IVTC2hbrVsmipf-dXyR5xt2cdfDwZQSsvRnoAOTvNz1_Ggk4q7lKN2/s259/inauguration.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT-A-3riMZeD6corh7iKuu153BeBEZEHEGuUTRDQfutJMKAibQ-3P-kqTRa__XixIEy3zCHR9DDD8uqCh_QRrso3IVTC2hbrVsmipf-dXyR5xt2cdfDwZQSsvRnoAOTvNz1_Ggk4q7lKN2/s0/inauguration.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Now he will take the oath as President, not VP</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">‘What
did he do to deserve this,’ I ask. ‘It’s the worst job in the world. There he
was in comfortable retirement - minding his own business, making a few speeches,
playing with the grandchildren. Probably asking himself exactly who the hell it
was that suggested he run for president in the first place. Now look at the
poor guy. He can’t even go out and get a decent hamburger without locking down
half of Washington. God forbid he is ever seen happily licking the spoon after
an ice cream Sundae with three scoops of vanilla ice cream, hot chocolate, whipped
cream and bananas! The media from California to New York and beyond will be
yelling about the bad example he is setting and how he should be happy with roasted
lettuce leaves and quinoa. If I were him I would quickly make a deal with the
White House chef to keep his mouth shut and leave the camera home. The chef
could take Air Force 1 wherever he wants. Pretty soon Biden will probably want
to</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">substitute </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Can’t Get No
Satisfaction</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> for </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hail To The Chief.</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid354Wnq3okl7JAd_hXQOOuyFGg8UcVgovEcCRaqYJIiN4EZ_-5HH4JHQrbX-bJ-pqjE59RktSTSG34okVvnQAd1A7NyFJVcSkT5Y2wcwhOAR7HR-IgqytwtbxkCW3fWlDnk8phDhbUZ2r/s313/sundae.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="313" data-original-width="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid354Wnq3okl7JAd_hXQOOuyFGg8UcVgovEcCRaqYJIiN4EZ_-5HH4JHQrbX-bJ-pqjE59RktSTSG34okVvnQAd1A7NyFJVcSkT5Y2wcwhOAR7HR-IgqytwtbxkCW3fWlDnk8phDhbUZ2r/s0/sundae.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Poor Biden. This is now likely to be forbidden fruit.</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> Keep plenty of aspirin handy, Mr. President. </span>The
world and its mother keeps yelling at you about what you <i>must do</i> or <i>should
do</i>. You <i>absolutely</i> <i>must</i> sign this piece of paper, that piece
of paper or the world is going to go to hell. There’s very little in the job
description about what you might actually <i>want</i> to do. Oh, and while you're not saving the world from multiple crises you must make time to meet groups like
the peach farmers from Georgia – now a <i>very </i>important state with 16 key
electoral votes. You can be sure that Mrs. Biden will guarantee that every White
House breakfast, lunch and dinner is well stocked with peaches and peanuts.
After all, Georgia is known as the Peach State and former President Jimmy
Carter was peanut farmer there. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Instead
of tossing soft toys to the grandchildren now you have to deal with a snarling
congress whose members threaten to derail everything your administration wants
to accomplish unless you throw a few billion dollars into their favorite
projects – like the hotly contested Miss Soybean contest. Sadly, it’s probably
true that the right outcome for this contest has more vote potential than any
public health, education or infrastructure program.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
many ways the president has the ultimate Home Office. All he has to do is walk
downstairs, and on top of that the internet probably works – once his
grandchildren set it up. The downside is that everybody wants to crowd into
that fairly small Oval Office and take up his time with this problem or that
problem when all he really wants to do is put his feet up and catch a good film
on Netflix. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA2egAfbdq9f4UqpAFYLvPqqY7Xgvrzdd8cAoXz_js03mdpk_os96wls7A04_gZ6jINY-idHj9boPlVBOG2LIXdA4Dpnd-Hn2Xe4YzO6pXFPI0c9jSwt5eIYbX5zFI9gil64psS8ycFK-W/s1300/oval.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA2egAfbdq9f4UqpAFYLvPqqY7Xgvrzdd8cAoXz_js03mdpk_os96wls7A04_gZ6jINY-idHj9boPlVBOG2LIXdA4Dpnd-Hn2Xe4YzO6pXFPI0c9jSwt5eIYbX5zFI9gil64psS8ycFK-W/s320/oval.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">At least the office is close to home</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
those are just the domestic aggravations. Most foreign leaders have your phone
number on speed dial and seem to forget about time differences when they want
to reach you. Or there can be a development in some far-off land that an
official at the State Department thinks demands your immediate attention at 3
am. You can just see a weary Biden wiping the sleep from his eyes and telling
the hyper-ventilating official, ‘Tell me again where this place is and just how
to pronounce the prime minister’s name. What do you want me to do – send the
101<sup>st</sup> Airborne or invite him to the White House?’<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>If you have ever moved house you
know it’s a real pain cleaning up after the former owners have left. There’s
always a huge amount of accumulated junk left over that you have to throw away
or take to the local charity shop. The White House staff have worked hard these
last few days but there is bound to be something left behind. Just what, for
example, is Biden going to do with a hair-dying machine set permanently to orange?
And what is he going to do with a warehouse full of MAGA hats and pins?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>All
things considered it seems like a terrible job with nothing but serious
problems that you are supposed to solve. And you don’t even make that much
money. Any half-way decent bond trader at Goldman Sachs makes multiples of what
you take home every month. The perks are admittedly pretty good, but when do
you have time to enjoy them? But someone has got to do it, and we should be grateful
that at least this president will spend more time on the job than on Twitter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-16436888757450578592021-01-10T12:49:00.007+00:002021-01-11T12:28:51.872+00:00Where Do We Go From Here?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;">By now we’ve all seen the horrific
pictures of mobs charging into the US Capitol building in a vain attempt to stop
the final nail in their hero’s political coffin – congressional
certification of Joe Biden’s victory over the Toddler-In-Chief Donald Trump.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
question is what happens now? How do the Democrats react to this unexpected gift
from their favorite hate figure? Where do the Republicans, in particular the
Republican Party, go from here? How far can the party disassociate itself from
its disgraced leader? Does it even <i>want</i> to disassociate itself from him?
And what of Trump himself and the rest of his family? Do they fade into the
darkness of swamp they brought to Washington? Or do they carry on with their delusions
of power and popularity?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5SxizOsNcdS25oDQaB2GxCBONmAZlLYs99v8ZTE38dcHul75N_EAlYc-M-5gwTPDqPV6N-6_iQT338OjiJ1wOtVjiqdKNprz1uXcCFJMOatMxsF2IdNGtSLYMrE0xFLuiGicWaTD3QeV7/s450/visual-language-of-hate.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5SxizOsNcdS25oDQaB2GxCBONmAZlLYs99v8ZTE38dcHul75N_EAlYc-M-5gwTPDqPV6N-6_iQT338OjiJ1wOtVjiqdKNprz1uXcCFJMOatMxsF2IdNGtSLYMrE0xFLuiGicWaTD3QeV7/s320/visual-language-of-hate.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is Trump's so-called base?!</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">First
things first. The country will heal and prosper as it always has after major
shocks like Pearl Harbor, the assassinations and convulsions of the 1960s,
9/11, and now this mayhem. In this task Biden is the perfect Anti-Trump non-drama
leader. No ranting, no raving. Just a calm, experienced voice telling us all to
take a deep breath and calm down.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifwxqd7g9kSOXslceywM6AgQQoNLdwyv4IN5ZTTk0TR86OC4CXGxlbFfqBqDezLMJBlLmAgygNaSy9wcwO2QDfWzFCnUfFUVWwxX-sOaq4aS-nEX2C3wTwN9DSGBxoeo80qqfDqpBHAE5q/s275/President+Biden.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifwxqd7g9kSOXslceywM6AgQQoNLdwyv4IN5ZTTk0TR86OC4CXGxlbFfqBqDezLMJBlLmAgygNaSy9wcwO2QDfWzFCnUfFUVWwxX-sOaq4aS-nEX2C3wTwN9DSGBxoeo80qqfDqpBHAE5q/s0/President+Biden.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The perfect antidote to the lunatics</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
Democrats, of course, are jubilant at the prospect of jamming through their
favorite legislation now that they control the White House and both branches of
Congress – albeit by the narrowest of margins. After Wednesday’s riot many
congressional Republicans – not all by any means – are in shock and in no mood
to vigorously oppose Biden. He could probably get Che Guevara confirmed as
Secretary of Defence at this point. But the Democrats need to be careful not to
make the same mistake the Republicans made by overplaying their partisan
dominance. They could play a much stronger long game by showing a little of
Biden’s most popular word – bipartisanship. Giving a little now will gain them
the moral high ground for a long time as unifiers and healers instead of mere
partisan warriors out for blood. That gets old very fast.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As
for the Republican Party itself, well, one has to ask <i>what </i>Republican Party?
Will it continue to be party of Trump and his acolytes or will it rebuild
itself along the Reagan/Bush axis? Will Trump try to form his own party? I
doubt that very much. For one thing it is a very expensive process and Trump
has an aversion to spending his own money. Second, and more important, third
parties have a very difficult time in the American election system. All he
would do is split the Republican vote and ensure Democratic domination for a
long time. The only reason I could see him doing it is to spite the Republicans
for failing to go along with his lies about the election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>His
family is now so politically toxic it’s extremely doubtful that his two loudmouthed
sons have much of a future in democratic (small ‘d’) politics. Maybe in places
like Belarus or North Korea but not so much in the United States. His daughter
Ivanka may have had visions of representing major luxury brands but now she has
about as much chance of doing that as I do of becoming the next James Bond.
It’s amazing to see how fast corporations that once fawned over Trump and his
family are now back-peddling. <i>‘Trump? Trump who? Never heard of the guy.’<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcBxXZQP2BTBzZJZpjWl6UMdYbtHCv3P19yijTDHh3i_ZGOR8MS1IEi1c8UaQlXFLHqcC6dyOq7CzwjW0nmttlpeFPmzHPauM57-HjSYsq9Fulff4uS9uEfaw1aIEsr8cRVCyfvT7vp8y/s300/trump+family.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcBxXZQP2BTBzZJZpjWl6UMdYbtHCv3P19yijTDHh3i_ZGOR8MS1IEi1c8UaQlXFLHqcC6dyOq7CzwjW0nmttlpeFPmzHPauM57-HjSYsq9Fulff4uS9uEfaw1aIEsr8cRVCyfvT7vp8y/s0/trump+family.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rapid trip from First Family to Forgotten Family</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /><i><br /></i></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
same goes for the two senators, Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri,
who led the anti-certification charge. These are by no means stupid men. Cruz
went to Harvard Law School and Hawley went to Yale Law School. Both served as
clerks to Supreme Court justices. But both are – or were – consumed by presidential
ambitions and probably practiced <i>Hail To The Chief </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in front of the bathroom mirror. They hoped to
capture Trump’s ‘base’ by challenging congressional certification of Biden’s
victory in the name of ‘protecting the integrity of elections’ – as if numerous
judicial decisions and recounts had not already accomplished this. They watched
their presidential ambitions crumble as the mobs assaulted the Capitol. They may
get elected again in their respective states but their national aspirations are
over.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
what about the media organizations who lavished such praise on Trump for the
past four years? Rupert Murdoch’s <i>Wall Street Journal </i>and the <i>New York
Post</i> – to their credit – repudiated Trump’s election fantasies and are now
calling for him to resign. Even <i>Fox News</i> is no longer merely a Trump
mouthpiece. Many conservative websites like <i>City Journal</i> have columns
that sound like third-rate Mafioso in their back-handed criticism of Trump. ‘<i>The
schmuck was worse than criminal. He was stupid.’</i> They are furious at
Trump’s meddling in Georgia – not because it verged on the criminal but because
it backfired and resulted in two Democrats winning and giving Democrats control of
the Senate. According to these columns this opens the floodgates for hated
‘liberal’ legislation like tax hikes, health care, and – God forbid! – easier
immigration. The hysteria of these, and other conservative commentators, is
misplaced. With a 50/50 Senate split it would be extremely difficult for the
far left to push through much of its desired legislation. More important is that Biden has not
expressed the slightest interest in the extreme legislation favored by the far left wing of the party. And he has chosen a
cabinet that reflects his own moderate views. Janet Yellen as Treasury
Secretary. Merrick Garland as Attorney General. Pete Buttigieg at
Transportation. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh as Labor Secretary. The extremely
capable Rhode Island governor Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary. Anthony
Blinken as Secretary of State. No flame throwers there.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Maybe
the upside of the mess that Trump left behind is that the grown-ups now have a
chance to get down to the business of actually legislating and getting
something done without the Master of Disaster bombarding everyone with his
school-yard tirades all day, every day.<o:p></o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-57999863186615889092020-11-08T12:16:00.003+00:002020-11-08T17:46:54.186+00:00Biden Was The Only Candidate Who Could Hold The Center<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Before the
self-righteous, and usually wrong, pundits start telling President-elect Joe
Biden what he ‘<i>must</i>’ or ‘<i>should</i>’ do let us take a moment to
honour what he has already done.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG5o5e-6ECukLqfgXgxq1f0ErzfCIpTEaoyKXfO-Loe14BIgf2LDvigWXRcGLe_imKwpthX_-HSC5ABzQ-bc5ZVh4zZAPUxEGKQap_3AqJWQQnu39dTd47ndpxPvzWqDGHpvpKMH4EAxF8/s251/Biden.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img border="0" data-original-height="251" data-original-width="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG5o5e-6ECukLqfgXgxq1f0ErzfCIpTEaoyKXfO-Loe14BIgf2LDvigWXRcGLe_imKwpthX_-HSC5ABzQ-bc5ZVh4zZAPUxEGKQap_3AqJWQQnu39dTd47ndpxPvzWqDGHpvpKMH4EAxF8/s0/Biden.jpg" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Time to honour him for what he has achieved<br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">First, he was the </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">only</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
Democratic candidate who could have beaten Donald Trump. Of course he
benefitted from the strong negative feelings about Trump, but without Biden’s positive
message reconciliation, calm, evolution instead of revolution I doubt the
Democrats would have won.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Second, he flipped
at least four if not five states. This is an incredible achievement against an
incumbent president. Most startling of all was the transformation in Georgia
where the count continues. Currently Biden is leading by a slender margin. If this
holds he will be the first Democrat since 1992 to carry Georgia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Third, while
Biden’s margins in some states were slim so were Donald Trump’s in 2016. In
some states the difference was large. In 2016 Trump beat Hillary Clinton by
almost 11,000 votes in Michigan. In this election Biden beat Trump by almost
148,000 votes. The difference in Pennsylvania was the mirror image of 2016 when
Trump won by 44,000 votes. So far, Biden is ahead by about 40,000. Could be
more when the count is finished. But Georgia was the standout. Trump won this
state by 211,000 votes in 2016. This year Biden holds a slim 10,000 vote lead
and the state is headed for a recount. However that turns out the result is a
dramatic move toward the Democrats.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio5y2x7QBnsO2-ecVeFwMA2xS3T_ytk7uLdMcZ_S2MbgNealIzxCL77cWorEE_3o7lfwhFZw4HEk58_W1ejmUiAzcQ2yLj6slmBvJrgrHtaaE5PcyMenzZyAzAMzFzkaPryeBLVSCK45EN/s300/electoral.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio5y2x7QBnsO2-ecVeFwMA2xS3T_ytk7uLdMcZ_S2MbgNealIzxCL77cWorEE_3o7lfwhFZw4HEk58_W1ejmUiAzcQ2yLj6slmBvJrgrHtaaE5PcyMenzZyAzAMzFzkaPryeBLVSCK45EN/s0/electoral.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-size: x-small;">Biden flipped four if not five states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and maybe Georgia<br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Some of the
hand-wringing pundits on both sides of the Atlantic are already whinging that
the relatively close results of this election show how America is
‘irreconcilably’ divided. Instead of the giant </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Blue Wave</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> of tsunami
proportions they had hoped for what they got were gentle blue waves lapping on
the shore. These twittering pundits are making the fundamental political error
of blaming the voters for a less-than-desirable outcome. They need to stop
considering all Trump voters as nothing more than inbred extras from the film </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Deliverance.
</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">In fact, there were a great many people who accepted that Trump is a deeply
flawed person but held their noses and voted for him because they intensely
disliked some of the loonier ideas such as defunding the police, packing the
Supreme Court, or sharply higher taxes proposed by many of the so-called </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">progressives</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
in the Democratic Party. Even though Biden steered well away from these ideas
Trump was successful in scaring a lot of people into voting for him by
screaming about the looming cataclysm of a Democratic victory.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Rather than
irreconcilable divisions this election could show a massive move toward the
center, away from extremes on both sides. I think Biden’s real strength is that
he, above all else, represents this center</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">. </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">He is in a position to
capitalize on this massive, shifting center and build a strong movement around
it – a movement that can withstand the inevitable splits by the far left and
the far right.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">There is also a
lot of Democratic hand-wringing (</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">A suggestion for these people. Stop agonizing.
You won.)</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> over the less-than-expected gains with America’s very large
Hispanic community. They should read <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/once-again-democrats-have-misunderstood-minorities/2020/11/05/6d55d668-1fa6-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html">Fareed Zakaria’s excellent essay in theWashington Post,</a> </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Once Again, Democrats Have Misunderstood Minorities.</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
Unlike the Blacks, the Hispanics didn’t come to America against their will
bound in chains destined for a life of slavery and repression. They, like most
of the other immigrant groups, </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">chose</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> to make the often very difficult
move away from poverty and political brutality to a place that offered a
chance, however, slim for a better life. They worked hard and by now millions
of these immigrants have attained a share of that good life. They love
capitalism with its chance to make some money and move up in the world. They
hate the very idea of socialism which, for many of them, means nothing more
than the state stealing everything they have earned. And they tend to be
extremely patriotic Americans who appreciate law and order as much as the
farmer in Iowa. It is time to drop the patronizing, condescending attitude of
so many urban liberals with their ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach toward the
incredibly diverse universe of immigrants.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;"> </span></div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Biden will
obviously face real challenges dealing with Republicans in Congress, but he
will also face challenges from the ‘progressives’ in his own party who are
already screaming for radical change. They will be disappointed. After nearly
50 years in Washington Biden understands that the key to political success is compromise,
accepting the country as it is and focusing on evolution not revolution. His
incremental moves will infuriate extremes on both sides for whom compromise is
a four-letter word. Very likely they will retreat in a huff to their respective
citadels and spend the next four years loudly proclaiming the virtue of their causes.
Meanwhile, if Biden can keep the center intact, the country will do just fine.</span><p></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-2193672248467669012020-10-31T17:23:00.002+00:002020-10-31T18:55:22.697+00:00Relax, People. America Is Not 'Tearing Itself Apart'.<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">I have to shake my
head in wonder every time I read another British or European headline about the
alleged threat of ‘<i>America tearing itself apart</i>’ or a mind-numbing essay
about the ‘<i>Two Americas</i>’. I’ve got news for the author of that
particular tome. There are far more than two Americas. Calm down people. Stop
hyperventilating. America is – always has been and God willing always will be
-- a big, sprawling country filled with contradictions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Even without the
loud, gaudy showmanship of someone like Donald Trump America presents the polar
opposite to the relatively small, relatively well controlled, relatively
discrete countries of Europe where one never, ever brags about his own wealth
and certainly never drives around in a pick-up truck with deadly weapons carried
on a rack behind the driver.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Of course there
are deep cultural differences between various parts of the country. Not too
many New Yorkers familiar with the canyons of Manhattan want to swap them for
the real canyons and mountains of the wild west. Fortunately there’s enough
room for everyone to find a place suitable for the life-style of his or her
choosing. You want to live the life of a mountain man high in the Rockies? Be
my guest. The thought of venturing west of the Hudson River causes you to break
out in a cold sweat? Stay home. Be my guest. No one is going to stop you.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb-uRMrkM4N2z2EZtXVbFNSi8AxygWHQMtaNwSunCPei5eL2HRKOCQ3JhOPKm4xaTHv2Mkv2jIJW6XbPKhK4gsRRuIAHt5DbvRdfBFBzB2beqmNv_nlZA792X25W8uTM-ogvKs2Pbl0H8l/s275/militia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb-uRMrkM4N2z2EZtXVbFNSi8AxygWHQMtaNwSunCPei5eL2HRKOCQ3JhOPKm4xaTHv2Mkv2jIJW6XbPKhK4gsRRuIAHt5DbvRdfBFBzB2beqmNv_nlZA792X25W8uTM-ogvKs2Pbl0H8l/s0/militia.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Scary. But how representative?<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">What most European
commentators seem to miss about the coming ‘cataclysm’ in America is just how
superficial most of the noise really is. Yes, pictures of wild demonstrations
and</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">guys with guns and motorcycles make scary
pictures. God knows, you can find them in America – just like you can find just
about every sort of clan, tribe, cult, freak show you can imagine. But, and
this is a big </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">but</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">, just how much of the total society of more than 360
million people do they represent? Not much. Occasionally some of these groups
do break out in violent, bloody actions like the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995
where members of a militia group bombed a federal building killing 168 people. What
was overlooked in the aftermath was the universal condemnation from all segments
of the allegedly fractured society. The show of unity was far greater and
longer lasting than that one deranged incident.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">My advice to
foreign commentators looking for evidence to support their pre-formed opinions
is to look deeper. Go beyond the blaring headlines and political follies of
Washington and see how the country works and why it will most likely stay
together. One of the immediate observations will be just how de-centralized the
system really is. Unlike most of Europe decisions of the central government do
not control or even heavily impact what is important in most people’s daily
lives.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">It is precisely
everyday issues like schools, roads, local taxes that people in the thousands
of communities across the country – not the central government – decide. Just
look at the difference in how communities in Europe and the United States are
funded.
In Europe well over 90% of funding for local communities comes from the
central government. With that funding comes central control over what is done
in local communities. In the United States the situation is reversed. More than
90% of any town’s budget comes from that town, from property taxes on homes and
businesses. When I was starting as a rookie journalist I covered these towns
and I can assure you the locals were determined to keep control. Offers of
state or federal funding were often rejected because of the strings attached.
Town councils spent days agonizing over budgets and how much property taxes
would have to be increased to pay for schools, police, fire departments,
libraries, health care etc.
This also explains the huge differences and
inequalities in education systems. Wealthy communities like Greenwich, Connecticut
can afford the best schools money can buy. Rural communities have trouble
scraping up money for math teachers let alone fancy after-school programs. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">I often witnessed unlikely scenes where a
bearded, heavily tattooed, Hell’s Angels member and a country club matron would
join forces to argue for increased school funding. After all, Hell’s Angels
have kids too.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtaBXV1bESxmwcG35vyU-PwEetu8oAibbuyt7MNDyP23uxdM70Q9VlKqH7pJjhy7BFJieCDkpkXAxcekXmKmgiSuRrLHr0cfDmXm6IaWBrIwdfYlUwrSROaHxacqsQsPKm2hszZ_GnVjs6/s700/town+meeting.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="700" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtaBXV1bESxmwcG35vyU-PwEetu8oAibbuyt7MNDyP23uxdM70Q9VlKqH7pJjhy7BFJieCDkpkXAxcekXmKmgiSuRrLHr0cfDmXm6IaWBrIwdfYlUwrSROaHxacqsQsPKm2hszZ_GnVjs6/s320/town+meeting.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Town meetings decide critical local issues<br /></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The point is that
in these communities where issues critical to people’s everyday lives are
decided there is very little room for political identification as a Republican,
Democrat, Libertarian, Moon Worshipper or anything else. People are forced to
work together. Pot holes aren’t Republican or Democrat. They’re just pot holes
that need to be fixed – by the people of that town not some distant figure in
Washington.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">So whatever
happens on Election Day this week just relax. Put your feet up, have a glass of
wine confident that one day – post-Covid of course – you can visit America and
not have to worry about getting caught in the cross fire of a civil war.</span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-60433170047470280452020-09-22T09:55:00.006+01:002020-09-22T11:06:59.375+01:00Mediterranean Standoff Shows Little Sign Of Resolution<p> <br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">So far Greece has
played a masterful hand against Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean standoff.
It has collected an impressive list of allies against Turkish attempts to claim
a larger slice of the maritime territory and has used this tension to build up
its armed forces.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgPcwBlHv2Fmvy1yjMrIadMDie8Vh0hRKP_LnHDmV3UBh-gotzmX_cHB3qvvJn57HBJeAGd_lijzVdsTe1Ki7sxxMEm3M6FigBbQ3rAhRLsDhMvrWlNGK9HLks5jIzIraozCFSQdV0R2mX/s768/oruc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="768" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgPcwBlHv2Fmvy1yjMrIadMDie8Vh0hRKP_LnHDmV3UBh-gotzmX_cHB3qvvJn57HBJeAGd_lijzVdsTe1Ki7sxxMEm3M6FigBbQ3rAhRLsDhMvrWlNGK9HLks5jIzIraozCFSQdV0R2mX/s320/oruc.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It has also been extremely fortunate
in its opponent. Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan is extremely unpopular
outside Turkey and has diplomatically isolated his country. I have found only
one country, Azerbaijan, that half-heartedly supports Turkish claims over
maritime sovereignty. He has not only alienated most of the European Union
members but has also alienated the vast majority of Arab countries who are
happy to align themselves with Greece. Erdogan was furious when the United Arab
Emirates and Bahrain recognized Israel. But, as usual, he glosses over inconvenient
facts. Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Israel and still has
several daily flights to Tel Aviv. He has always portrayed himself as the
leader of the Muslim Middle East but those claims have now drifted into fantasy
land. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Even the loudly trumpeted maritime
pact with the UN-recognized part of Libya remains stillborn. In order to become
effective the pact had to be ratified by parliaments in both countries. The
Turkish parliament quickly ratified it but so far the Libyan parliament has
rejected it. Therefore that agreement has no legal standing and is just another
baseless claim by Erdoğan.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Beyond these various maritime
agreements Erdoğan has other problems that limit his options. Turkey is bogged
down with military adventures in Syria and Libya with no end in sight. Keeping
a large part of its army in Syria and supporting mercenaries in Libya is an
expensive exercise – one the country really cannot afford. After years of
mismanagement the Turkish economy is in tatters and the currency keeps sinking
to one record low after another. Unemployment is rising and inflation is
running well above the Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate. Erdoğan has a
pathological hatred of interest and rebuffs every attempt by the Central Bank
to counter currency weakness by increasing interest rates. According to his
logic the currency is not sinking because of his own mismanagement but because
of machinations by the so-called interest rate lobby, the Free Masons, George
Soros (he of the infamous anti-Turkish Jewish lobby), the Knights Templar and
other assorted malign foreign forces.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But beneath the bellicose language
Turkey does have a point in all these discussions about maritime boundaries. The
sad thing is that if the Turkish position were presented by someone other than
Erdoğan people might actually pay attention and try to solve the problem intelligently.
But no one is inclined to give the swaggering neighbourhood bully such consideration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8CIcxm2cYDfUrD7rnTmSFsNhdz-GkTd7QNd9tqsaGh49b_z9oZqQfmwZXbQ4tMudPCQvluD5m1VhlBUYWVH2noaFR-w7WVxzEFyZVeChrYRaiUeNlnbre5dOy6zNcYqaXYfE7Jkclv93x/s1500/islands.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8CIcxm2cYDfUrD7rnTmSFsNhdz-GkTd7QNd9tqsaGh49b_z9oZqQfmwZXbQ4tMudPCQvluD5m1VhlBUYWVH2noaFR-w7WVxzEFyZVeChrYRaiUeNlnbre5dOy6zNcYqaXYfE7Jkclv93x/s320/islands.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Greek position may be within the
strict letter of the law but often seems unnecessarily provocative. When you
look at a map of the Aegean there is a string of islands extending along the
Turkish coast from Mytilene in the north all the way down to the tiny (12
square kilometres) island of Kastellorizo in the south. Then, of course,
there’s Cyprus off Turkey’s southern coast. But that’s another long,
complicated story. These islands enable Greece and Cyprus (at least the
internationally-recognized part of the island) to claim sovereignty over a
large part of the Aegean and much of the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>eastern Mediterranean. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Understandably these claims infuriate
Turkey, which has a long coast line of its own stretching from the northern
Aegean all the way around to the eastern edge of the Mediterranean, because it
feels hemmed in and denied access to potential maritime riches by a chain of
relatively small islands. The various laws and treaties governing maritime
rights can fill at least one very large bookcase. Suffice it to say that Greece
and Turkey have conflicting views on the application of these laws and
treaties. Just one example – Greece has signed the United Nations Convention On
The Law Of The Seas which states that Greece is entitled to an Exclusive
Economic Zone around the islands. Turkey has not signed this convention and
says that convention applies only to the countries that signed it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact Turkey does not recognize a legal
continental shelf and EEZ around the Greek islands. As far as Turkey is
concerned the continental shelf should be measured from mainland Turkey and not
the adjacent Greek islands. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Beyond these migraine-inducing legal
arguments there is the even more fundamental question about the size of the
resources under the sea. While significant gas fields have been discovered in
the indisputably Israeli and Egyptian zones there is serious question about
resources near Cyprus. Exploration off Cyprus has so far yielded disappointing
results. And nothing has yet been found in the Aegean. But let’s say a major
field is discovered. What exactly do you do with it? Some people talk grandly
about an undersea pipeline extending from the waters off Cyprus to Crete or
Rhodes and then somehow to the Greek mainland and onto Italy. Such a pipeline
is astronomically expensive and at today’s natural gas prices completely unrealistic.
Ah, you say, send it to Cyprus where it will be converted into LNG (liquified
natural gas) and sent on its way in ships. Too bad no such LNG facility exists
on Cyprus. And it’s doubtful anyone would build one unless a major field is
discovered and gas prices increase sharply. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Looking at a map and ignoring
politics for a minute the obvious solution is a pipeline through neighbouring
Turkey, a country with multiple pipelines and only 40 miles from Cyprus. Logical?
Perhaps. But this is the Aegean/Mediterranean region that has a much longer
history of conflict than of logic and cooperation. One might hope for a
breakthrough but that would require more statesmanship than is visible right
now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-23887699877232463672020-08-17T12:01:00.000+01:002020-08-17T13:59:59.875+01:00Trump's Retreat From The World Is Nothing New<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">We had dinner with a European friend the
other night and he spent most of the evening wondering how the America he had
grown up with had become so inward looking, so isolationist. It’s no wonder he
was confused. He and I are part of the post-WW II generation when the United
States assumed, more or less by default, a global leadership role with programs
like the Marshall Plan, NATO, AID and strong support for
international institutions. To be honest, the options for the rest of the world
weren’t all that appealing. Americans might be overbearing monoglots with scant
interest in or regard for the nuances of global relationships. But they weren’t
Russian. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Even
as Europe and other parts of the world recovered, grew stronger and developed
their own agendas no one doubted that the United States remained pre-eminent.
Of course there were leaders like Nehru, Nasser, Tito or even Charles De Gaulle
who often clashed with the US and challenged that pre-eminence. But few people
seriously suggested that the Americans retreat back to North America, pull up
the draw bridge and forget about the rest of the world. Like it or not the US
acted as a type of security blanket for much of the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Now,
with the Trump administration retreating from a global role as fast as it can a
lot of people in my generation are wondering just how this happened. How can
the United States throw off the role of leadership so casually? Who will fill
the vacuum? Where did this isolationism come from?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Actually,
it is not a recent arrival at all. It has always been there, has always been
part of the American fabric. What Trump is spouting now is nothing new. People
forget that until WW II America was a deeply isolationist country. All during
the 1930s large America First organizations sprang up fuelled by the incendiary
pro-Hitler, pro-Mussolini, anti-Semitic radio broadcasts of Father Charles Coughlin
and were adored by millions across the country. It took the Japanese attack on
Pearl Harbor and Hitler’s declaration of war on the United States to turn the
tide.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEize4I7KhKiy4QsbiCiQQ4rHGdx6ed5C7OshUW-uDQlSM0LbnKUIBjRxHZLW1HLXU_bMLcasvG7tfIdXNkXPt5qy9nBS9iG5nuq3iBwwmyfzygJs6jYOUOc_nlGRWJVLjjFKQIgHQ9ftK4-/s265/isolationists.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="190" data-original-width="265" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEize4I7KhKiy4QsbiCiQQ4rHGdx6ed5C7OshUW-uDQlSM0LbnKUIBjRxHZLW1HLXU_bMLcasvG7tfIdXNkXPt5qy9nBS9iG5nuq3iBwwmyfzygJs6jYOUOc_nlGRWJVLjjFKQIgHQ9ftK4-/w320-h229/isolationists.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>America First rally in the 1930s</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
all Father Coughlin did, like Trump, was to tap into a deep well spring of distrust
and enmity that many in the New World felt toward the Old World. ‘<i>Who needs
them and all their problems? We’ve got more than enough to take care ourselves?
To hell with them.</i>’ In a country founded and strengthened by waves of
immigrants it is ironic that the first manifestation of this mood was in the
1840s when a powerful anti-immigrant force called derisively the <i>Know
Nothings</i> sprang up and became a political force suppressed only by the
outbreak of the Civil War in 1860. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHoejDE_jqLpRLx3P5fr-J6YAnOml4f4mKe7Tl6E6PxDPy6pd-Vw9v8EILOLNjUf_c1TLB-VWAtTuxFJ10ifFktMgJmCqzA4A0wEEV6Jk2a4xXkmb2UkvSBWf5_YtusPcJIRn6MRLC0tWk/s294/know+nothing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="171" data-original-width="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHoejDE_jqLpRLx3P5fr-J6YAnOml4f4mKe7Tl6E6PxDPy6pd-Vw9v8EILOLNjUf_c1TLB-VWAtTuxFJ10ifFktMgJmCqzA4A0wEEV6Jk2a4xXkmb2UkvSBWf5_YtusPcJIRn6MRLC0tWk/s0/know+nothing.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Know Nothing motto from 1840s </i></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>‘<i>Not
our problem’</i> was the dominant American theme for most of WW I. Woodrow Wilson
was re-elected in 1916 on a pledge to keep America out of the war. It was only
the result Germany’s declaration of unrestricted submarine warfare that finally
brought the Americans into the war in 1917. But then, led by Republican Sen.
Henry Cabot Lodge, the country rejected the League of Nations – the center
piece of Wilson’s post-war plans.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_FQXvSnUob74Mkpt0isFyv3vXEJN015RKc1U-_0NtKZDkDdLuphFhTd9y54lZLjrRFWMS3BKu5s3g3LdgkQZxmU94dAimfQtqCFMTrp2ilM_CDpu8fUtjPw4NFq9eo02_t50Bres76qW/s259/league.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_FQXvSnUob74Mkpt0isFyv3vXEJN015RKc1U-_0NtKZDkDdLuphFhTd9y54lZLjrRFWMS3BKu5s3g3LdgkQZxmU94dAimfQtqCFMTrp2ilM_CDpu8fUtjPw4NFq9eo02_t50Bres76qW/w324-h243/league.jpg" width="324" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>League of Nations? You must be joking.</i></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After
WW II these nativist instincts were suppressed but never went away. As long as
the Cold War raged there was general – even if reluctant – agreement that
American military and economic presence all over the world was necessary to
counter the Russian threat. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>With
the end of the Cold War and its bi-polar global power structure, the rise of
China along with other regional economic powers like the European Union, and
seemingly endless inconclusive military conflicts the post-WW II global
consensus began to fracture along old, familiar lines. Trump – like other
so-called nativist populists around the world – recognized and capitalized this
trend. In the 1930s the code word was <i>cosmopolitan, </i>i.e.
internationalist, multi-lingual, and worst of all Jewish.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now the term <i>globalization</i> encompasses
all those old phobias – along with many new ones - and has become the code word
for all the country’s problems – especially by aggrieved white males. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Jobs
lost in the Midwest? Blame globalization. America out-voted in the UN and other
international organizations? Blame the ingrates that come with globalization? Good
money poured down the rat hole of so-called international aid? What a joke!
Disaster relief? Only if they side with the US on many other issues. So-called
allies disagreeing with the US? Nothing but a bunch of poncey ingrates! All
they want to do is bleed us dry!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Lost
in these diatribes is the small fact of continuing American domination of much
of the world’s economy despite the undoubted rise of China. American financial
institutions, tech companies, pharmaceutical companies, entertainment
companies, and many others span the globe. The power of the American Treasury
Department and the US Dollar is unparalleled. In many ways the Secretary of
the Treasury has more international power than the president. Because of the
unique position of the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency the Treasury
Department has the ability to levy heavy fines and sanctions against
international banks that are seen to violate American regulations on things
like money laundering and terrorist financing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
large part the election this November will reflect this sharp divide. Those who
value positive American engagement with the rest of the world will most likely
vote for former Vice President Joe Biden. Those for whom global engagement
spells nothing but trouble and want to build walls and pull up the draw bridge
will undoubtedly side with President Trump. The stakes – and not just for
America – are high. We shall see.<o:p></o:p></span></p>David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-68966831598514769732020-07-11T14:07:00.000+01:002020-07-13T14:10:39.219+01:00Time To Call Tayyip Erdoğan's Bluff<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">With
his latest move to change one of Orthodox Christianity’s most powerful symbols
from a museum into a mosque Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdoğan is once again
demonstrating his complete contempt for international cooperation or opinion.
He simply doesn’t care – at all. The only thing important to him is to maintain
the unwavering support of his nationalist and fundamentalist Islamic base of
support, a base that has shown signs of weakening in recent years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVKFbfhnW79pHJbCBzU6Ld6HI1-oNuQWViCiYOap1MFBem7Z6PoGaogGOYipRLBvCBw_IsrMqh90Zr_UDD9H59-E26QwhY_1rQgaDVM4uVMqafAZBEgP3uccc4Le6G8q2huAkp8g_5T8lf/s1600/haghia+sophia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVKFbfhnW79pHJbCBzU6Ld6HI1-oNuQWViCiYOap1MFBem7Z6PoGaogGOYipRLBvCBw_IsrMqh90Zr_UDD9H59-E26QwhY_1rQgaDVM4uVMqafAZBEgP3uccc4Le6G8q2huAkp8g_5T8lf/s1600/haghia+sophia.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Haghia Sophia before the Ottoman conquest</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>To the world at large Erdoğan <i>is </i>Turkey.
That is a serious mistake. His main damage over the years has been to obscure
the complex, rich reality of Turkey – a complexity which he loathes. There are
literally millions of hard working, well educated people in Turkey who reject his
narrow, inward view of the world. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> They want to engage with the rest of the world not retreat from it. </span>Indeed in the
last round of municipal elections they showed their strength when the opposition
won almost all the major cities including Istanbul. These cities and
surrounding areas<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>contain the bulk of
Turkey’s population and the vast majority of the country’s economic activity. There
are promising signs that the success in local elections could be carried to the
national level. This is what Erdoğan really fears and why he has to work hard
to maintain is base of support.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Why is the status of Haghia Sophia
so important? Constructed in the 6<sup>th</sup> century AD by Byzantine Emperor
Justinian it stood for almost 1,000 years as a powerful symbol of Christianity
with its soaring dome and glittering mosaics. When the Ottoman Turks conquered
Constantinople in 1453 one of their first acts was to convert this symbol into
a mosque. It remained a mosque until 1934 when the Turkish republic’s first
president Kemal Ataturk – determined to secularize and modernize the country –
converted it into a museum. Thus it remained until today. Erdoğan and his
fervent followers deeply resent Ataturk’s secularization drive and have tried
over the years to weaken his hold on the Turkish public. The conversion of
Haghia Sophia back into a mosque is simply their latest, boldest, step in
trying to settle decades-old grievances against Ataturk’s legacy and the outside
world – especially the perfidious West. It remains to be seen if their Islamic
zeal will make them destroy the remnants of the original glorious 6<sup>th</sup>
century mosaics inside Haghia Sophia. After all, human representation in any
artistic form is an anathema for Islamic fundamentalists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9-HCZ8UKI8gcaGnnDBRMvmI3Flk-PGs5fffAXZXi7lFb1XwIncWvndCMgW4LPkEsL03-w6Uog1rjo5xiCKmnoHF4zQIepJxpS1i6R_HZUfLmGH1FK4g89igkLPshzuoGjXsoOnw2_ucuy/s1600/mosaic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9-HCZ8UKI8gcaGnnDBRMvmI3Flk-PGs5fffAXZXi7lFb1XwIncWvndCMgW4LPkEsL03-w6Uog1rjo5xiCKmnoHF4zQIepJxpS1i6R_HZUfLmGH1FK4g89igkLPshzuoGjXsoOnw2_ucuy/s1600/mosaic.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will these precious mosaics in Haghia Sophia be destroyed?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Is there anything the rest of the
world can do to make Erdoğan reverse this decision? In the short term, not
really. Isolated in his bubble and surrounded by sycophants he is impervious to
criticism – especially from Europe. This time is slightly different in that
Orthodox Russia has also severely criticized the conversion. But the Russian
condemnation quickly gets tangled in the delicate and complex web of
Russian/Turkish relations and might not have much effect.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But that doesn’t mean other
countries and international organizations are completely impotent in this
matter. Erdoğan is a very shrewd, clever villager who has little knowledge of
or interest in the rest of the world. But up to now has played his
international counterparts like a harp. They can flap their arms in despair at
some of Erdoğan’s moves, express all the righteous indignation they want and he
just laughs because he knows full well those are empty gestures. They won’t <i>do</i>
anything. Turkey may be resource poor but it occupies what has been considered
a critical piece of geography, literally spanning East and West. It is a member
of NATO and played a key role during the Cold War. However, those ties are
fraying and Turkey’s useful role is being questioned more and more. There are also
strong elements in Turkey that want to get rid of all Western alliances and
focus more on Eurasia – an area they feel is more politically and socially
compatible with their 16th century vision for Turkey. Much of Turkey’s economic elite is
horrified at such an Iranization of the country, but it’s not clear how much –
if any – influence this elite has.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoi9TU-YnNibhH01-P76N7BunxaPo_YqPjbQJtQroSW2TDaFwm3QCfALYeIdk5bZFSLHUi9fFNKlcN2PmKiNjDg4iYn2Sg_N26WYvZdmNnuyMA0aJHPRvBfgi118fuRtkvDC_6SnVbUrjx/s1600/Erdogan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoi9TU-YnNibhH01-P76N7BunxaPo_YqPjbQJtQroSW2TDaFwm3QCfALYeIdk5bZFSLHUi9fFNKlcN2PmKiNjDg4iYn2Sg_N26WYvZdmNnuyMA0aJHPRvBfgi118fuRtkvDC_6SnVbUrjx/s1600/Erdogan.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Erdogan in a familiar pose</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Erdoğan loves to stress that Turkey
is a sovereign nation and can make its own decisions. True enough. But other
nations are also sovereign and are perfectly free to make their own reactions
to Erdoğan’s moves. Merely whining does no good at all. He feeds on that. It is
time to get serious and call his bluff. He wants to change the status of
historic monuments? Fine. But there must be consequences, regardless of any
inconvenience. International cultural organizations could make Erdoğan’s Turkey
a pariah and withdraw the country’s membership. Yes, there are countless
valuable antiquities in Turkey. But if anyone thinks coddling Erdoğan is the
way to preserve those he is kidding himself. He has shown an undying love of
modern concrete over natural beauty or ancient sites – especially if they are
Christian.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What else could be done? Erdoğan is
exposed in Syria. Yes, the Assad regime is an abomination but Orthodox
Christians in Syria should be very afraid of the alternative of the fundamental
Sunnis, the Al Qaeda offshoots supported by Erdoğan. The West together with
Russia could put serious pressure on Assad to do a deal with the Kurds, who
hate Erdoğan, and work for a loose federation that keeps Syria together while
getting rid of the Turkish occupation of the north-western part of the country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Thanks to Erdoğan’s mismanagement
the country’s economy has become quite fragile with an over-reliance on
imports, dwindling foreign currency reserves, high unemployment and massive foreign
currency debt obligations. Officials may be adept at managing these challenges
in the short term but longer term the country will pay a high price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ah, but the immigrants you say.
Annoy him too much and he can unleash millions of immigrants – most of whom are
not Syrian refugees -- into Europe. Yes and no. Several months ago Greece
showed what could be done with a little resolve. Close the border. Bulgaria
could do the same. Most civilized countries recoil at such measures. But it is
up to Europe to set its own immigration terms and not permit Erdoğan to use
these unfortunates as pawns to intimidate other countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-27656778274603688202020-07-05T17:17:00.002+01:002020-09-06T18:02:35.170+01:00A Long Way Around But We Finally Made It<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">After a circuitous two-day trip we finally
managed to escape from the travesty that has befallen Boris Johnson’s Britain
and land in Greece. This involved a flight to Geneva then a train trip to
Zurich and finally, the following morning, a flight to Athens. Arriving in
Geneva one is reminded of something that seems to have escaped the ‘New’
Britain – efficiency. We caught a train directly from the Geneva airport for a
comfortable scenic ride directly to the Zurich airport. Train officials were
mortified that the train was 6 minutes late. They shouldn’t have worried. This
small taste of efficiency was very welcome. British officials, on the other
hand, seem to have lost the ability to be mortified by anything, let alone mere
train delays. A delay of only 6 minutes would be cause for celebration
throughout the country. One more thing, the check-in queue at Swiss Air in Zurich
very early on Friday morning was extremely long. But there were more than
20<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>check-in counters and they were all
manned. Consequently the queue moved quickly. The same story at security. Every
position was manned and it took less than 3 minutes to clear security despite
the crowds. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Because
our trip had originated in the UK we were tested for Covid-19 at the Athens
airport. We had previously given our trace-and-track details and were allowed
to continue our journey even though the results wouldn’t be ready until the
next day. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Had we tested positive – we
didn’t – we would have been notified to self-isolate for two weeks. Seemed like
a reasonable approach – especially when compared to the ham-handed approach in
the UK where there was no attempt at testing (let alone tracking) and arriving
passengers were simply told to quarantine for two weeks. Now, when the UK is
finally modifying that policy many countries aren’t sure they want British
tourists because of the virus spikes in the country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRXTHyNRoaESIQ7JNipia2DjOC_YRlD1cLRdvpwCrErk4Iw1ViDfo_smk9Lyb7RRtINHzmJChLxqofLTO-KNyPoXUOic4dNa_t52Hn8eY9fzAnE1dK800AuJlkJALQZj9IKsNMndlbRzf/s1600/u-turn.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRXTHyNRoaESIQ7JNipia2DjOC_YRlD1cLRdvpwCrErk4Iw1ViDfo_smk9Lyb7RRtINHzmJChLxqofLTO-KNyPoXUOic4dNa_t52Hn8eY9fzAnE1dK800AuJlkJALQZj9IKsNMndlbRzf/s1600/u-turn.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Track and trace? Promised by June, now delayed indefinitely.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">British
governments weren’t always this incompetent. But now there’s a prime minister
who acts as though he would be much happier as the master of ceremonies at some
pub’s karaoke night rather than lead a serious country. That’s hard work and
requires real knowledge of major issues. Much easier to use one’s natural
glibness and focus on simple, short crowd pleasing slogans like ‘Get Brexit
Done.’</span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjdzGrgn0k80GgpMA4xmEfnVblb1PPqdSqdNTixIOx2WlCZ2l3rxZ30LF26lXw0zQMTIJVSrczC9Oi3O755kOK5PAIX-qSa762rtVHgU9FOTzXNxb9dFlS9c1NSgmqafJvHZw4UeXD1z7E/s1600/karaoke.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="159" data-original-width="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjdzGrgn0k80GgpMA4xmEfnVblb1PPqdSqdNTixIOx2WlCZ2l3rxZ30LF26lXw0zQMTIJVSrczC9Oi3O755kOK5PAIX-qSa762rtVHgU9FOTzXNxb9dFlS9c1NSgmqafJvHZw4UeXD1z7E/s1600/karaoke.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Much more fun than Prime Minister's Question Time</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Even
though Britain is starting to re-open the country faces many more serious
challenges like a treaty with the European Union and a trade agreement with the
United States. Both of these are problematic. If this wasn’t enough they have
to figure out how to pay for all billions of Pounds given to support companies
and individuals during the worst of the virus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
deadline for the treaty stipulating relations with the European Union is
December 31, 2020. Failure to agree a treaty by then would mean Britain leaving
with ‘no deal’ which would result in total confusion and self-inflicted damage
to the British economy. But, sadly, British negotiators seem to have adopted
the ‘My-way-or-the-highway’ approach in these talks which were going to be
difficult in the best of cases. This is fine if you have the upper hand which the
UK most definitely does not. It needs </span>friction-less<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> trade with the EU far more
than the EU needs an obstreperous, naively arrogant Britain. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Unfortunately,
Boris Johnson displays little interest in or knowledge of economics. Concerns
of business and financial leaders worried about being cast adrift from the
country’s largest and most important market interest him not at all. He loves
the idea of so-called Global Britain able to form its own trade relations
untethered to the cumbersome EU. In theory possible, but that requires the very
diplomatic and bureaucratic skills scorned by the current government. It also
requires management skills fatally lacking during the Covid-19 crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
government’s big hope is a trade deal with the United States. After all,
Johnson and American president Donald Trump share a deep contempt of the
European Union and a deep distrust of independent bureaucratic competence. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAzBHp8VAhPJhx2yFI_IOMoIBjd2X6ytj9O5X3I8cEhg3OsWmGTaaaiqVTYqliaXTP0ss1C5O8s2p4Oq4M6pgEinx6o2NewcmqcJVjmpcHtQtzZW1E26PPpDlAXqgkn8ieesRJbHjbv8tA/s1600/trump+and+johnson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="177" data-original-width="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAzBHp8VAhPJhx2yFI_IOMoIBjd2X6ytj9O5X3I8cEhg3OsWmGTaaaiqVTYqliaXTP0ss1C5O8s2p4Oq4M6pgEinx6o2NewcmqcJVjmpcHtQtzZW1E26PPpDlAXqgkn8ieesRJbHjbv8tA/s1600/trump+and+johnson.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Both of them believe sheer bluster can replace competence</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">But
Johnson will soon discover that it is very hard for a small fish to negotiate
equally with a whale. The only way the US would agree to such a trade deal is
if Britain basically accepts everything the US wants – namely free access to
the health care system and food markets. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This raises fears in many parts of the UK
about soaring drug prices and lower food safety standards. Those fears may well
be exaggerated but given their acceptance by a large part of the UK population
they pose a real hurdle for Johnson. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">On a more practical note, there is
absolutely no chance at all of any trade deal being completed before the US
presidential election in November. If Joe Biden wins Johnson could face someone
much more eager to work with the EU than with an ‘independent’ Britain. I
suspect the priority of any trade deal with the UK would slide way down the
long list of issues that any Biden administration would face. Johnson would
quickly discover that the world is a very lonely place for medium sized
countries not connected to any major economic bloc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-46528052652854159402020-05-27T16:54:00.003+01:002020-09-21T08:21:12.669+01:00Boris Johnson Has Really Accomplished Something Quite Unique<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">People can love the Tories or loathe them.
But up until now they were usually considered a ‘safe pair of hands’ for
managing the UK government apparatus. They generally knew how the complicated
business of government works. Now, Boris Johnson has achieved something truly
quite remarkable in his relatively short time as British prime minister. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Governments can be incompetent. They can be hypocritical.
They even can be arrogant. But rarely do they manage all three at
once. Johnson’s government, in the short span of five months, has achieved this
noteworthy goal. Rather like choosing the first three finishers at the Grand
National. Extraordinary, really.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Driven
by ideological zeal not seen since the religious wars of the Middle Ages this
government prided itself on being the anti-Establishment Elite. They were going
to shake up the stodgy – but hitherto relatively efficient – government
apparatus and consign all Brexit unbelievers to the Tower – if not worse. A
rousing victory over Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour was followed by a lengthy victory
lap. All ministers tainted with some residual affection for strong trade ties
with the European Union were quickly purged and sent to re-education camps. They
were replaced by nonentities whose only qualification seemed to be memorizing
the new Tory anthem. <i>This is the NEW Britain. We will stand proudly alone.
We are at last free to develop trade relations with whomever we want. We will
change Britain! </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And on, and on, and
on. You could just picture them marching </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">in-step </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">proudly </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px;">down Whitehall</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> arms swinging vigorously under banners proclaiming the New Order.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
then something unexpected happened. Reality. The real world in the silent,
deadly form of Corona Virus slipped unseen under the door (as only a
foreign virus would do) and began to devastate large portions of the
population. While alarm bells were ringing in most other serious countries
Britain’s prime minister – not known for hard work at the best of times – saw
no need to interrupt his holiday. Infection, what infection? No reason not to
attend a large sporting event or take part in Chinese New Year celebrations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8W9mZqyrtMyScARBjPX2Dt-ERJC_NWA4Yw191Hmcs5pClzKOwJCP-vDl0aQliqPLZpRs084wlfFPdIMqAyVHfv9IG_hsPeR-T5w4Nd0M_y8AQfBHVJ9sFGwlOCc4nxFmpVgFoijnAySiZ/s1600/dragon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8W9mZqyrtMyScARBjPX2Dt-ERJC_NWA4Yw191Hmcs5pClzKOwJCP-vDl0aQliqPLZpRs084wlfFPdIMqAyVHfv9IG_hsPeR-T5w4Nd0M_y8AQfBHVJ9sFGwlOCc4nxFmpVgFoijnAySiZ/s1600/dragon.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Infection, what infection. Nice timing, Boris.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Meanwhile
people were inconveniently becoming very ill and dying in large numbers. Again,
other countries (dare I mention Germany) were taking early precautions and benefiting
from a well-stocked public health service. The brutal, harsh, unforgiving light
of this real crisis rapidly stripped away the millimetre-thin veneer of
competence of this so-called New Elite. Ministers really didn’t have a clue how
to respond and received no guidance from the top. Isolate? Don’t isolate? Keep
schools and shops open? Close them? Let everyone get sick and pray for the
best? Test and trace? What’s that? Whatever you do, don’t for God’s sake tell
me Greece of all countries is testing and tracing!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
this was even before we get to the sad state of preventive equipment or the
catastrophe in care homes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The PPE
cupboard was bare and the government had to scramble around the rest of the
world looking for simple things like masks and gloves. When a large shipment of
masks arrived from Turkey most of them were unusable. The government never
checked that they were made by a newly formed company in Turkey that had never,
not once, made a mask. Well done, lads. The sheer bumbling incompetence of the
New Elite has us longing for the bowler hats, rolled umbrellas, and pin-striped
suits of the Old Elite.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
then the draconian Lockdown. All of us – well, most of us anyway – were
consigned to our homes to avoid getting or transmitting Covid-19. Better late
than never – even if most European countries had instituted this policy long
before. But then the back door – Heathrow Airport – was left wide open.
Thousands of international passengers arrived each day and passed straight
through without any testing or tracing at all. By this time the Own Goals were
mounting up. The other team didn’t even have to try.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDmv7TqbKRogDkcEZaCNfN7YX8de1oVgqLsCTDmAy14IXZ2HBgqV5DxfOnIkEU_6W8ks8a0iNvkLKKP2scsmyDnl4I6Jh1asBTK3QubzFx3KUON75cJe0DkYHM-_eLEWmzTVafYlJ_PeXG/s1600/cummings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDmv7TqbKRogDkcEZaCNfN7YX8de1oVgqLsCTDmAy14IXZ2HBgqV5DxfOnIkEU_6W8ks8a0iNvkLKKP2scsmyDnl4I6Jh1asBTK3QubzFx3KUON75cJe0DkYHM-_eLEWmzTVafYlJ_PeXG/s1600/cummings.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">PM's favorite adviser, Dominic Cummings. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After
almost two months of isolation things are starting to loosen up a little. But
just as this is happening the truly hapless Home Office minister – unfazed by reality
or the impossibility of enforcement -- proudly proclaims that she is firmly
slamming the barn door shut after all the horses have left. All international
air travellers arriving in Britain after June 8 must be quarantined for two
weeks. Such a step might have been useful at the very beginning of the crisis,
but now – when European countries seem to have gotten Covid-19 under some
control – it is just pointless window dressing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So
much for Incompetence. Arrogance is running a close second. Admit they made
mistakes? You must be joking. Just send the bruised and battered Health
Secretary once again before remorseless TV cameras to assert everything is
under control. Of course we’ll have the required testing in just two weeks.
Well, actually, better make that six weeks. Rather reminds one of the Charge of
the Light Brigade. That didn’t work out well, either.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Meanwhile,
Hypocrisy is making a late charge on the outside. Remember, all of us are in
this together. Stay Home. Save Lives. Save the NHS. Unless, of course, you’re a
cabinet minister or key adviser. The government could have blunted the impact
of wandering ministers and advisers getting caught by simply apologizing and
saying it wouldn’t happen again. But then it’s only Old Establishment wimps who
see the need to apologize for anything to anyone. This is the age of the Dirty
Harry (Make My Day) Tory. Apologize? Of course not. Nothing to apologize for.
We’re the new Elite. We can do whatever we want. Boris Johnson went so far as
to say he was sorry that people were upset at his key aide’s journey. Not sorry
about the journey itself, mind you. Just that some people were upset about it.</span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3xVG0IZS-iEOYgOcYVh9xi-EGklWWypukyQg43R7xoakSRrmUfbZWG35uwu1XndqH7vYGNSViEamJ3rXAqUbcMfNoqc1BO5FKigD2MnIWvjb_7rqaUJYqF6HJjnM0MXucXSIqfDE6EYS/s1600/humphrey.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3xVG0IZS-iEOYgOcYVh9xi-EGklWWypukyQg43R7xoakSRrmUfbZWG35uwu1XndqH7vYGNSViEamJ3rXAqUbcMfNoqc1BO5FKigD2MnIWvjb_7rqaUJYqF6HJjnM0MXucXSIqfDE6EYS/s1600/humphrey.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Who is running the country? Sir Humphrey or Dominic?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
this is the team that is supposed to lead the UK to the sunny uplands of prosperity
and national pride? Makes <i>Yes Minister</i> look very good indeed. Sir
Humphrey, where are you when we need you?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-29460657364190089152020-04-22T11:03:00.000+01:002020-04-22T17:50:06.222+01:00The Dog Ate My Homework<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">There
is absolutely nothing remotely humorous about Covid-19 or the terrible toll it
is taking on thousands of families across the UK. If the disease itself wasn’t
bad enough the people of the UK are staggering under the additional weight of a
blundering, incompetent government more intent on denial and blame shifting
than finding solutions. The writers of that wonderful British television series
<i>Yes Minister </i>could not possibly in their wildest imagination come up
with a script to rival what we are witnessing every day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In their constant denial of the
obvious lack of preparation ministers ignore the most important rule of
political survival – <i>stop digging</i>. Admit the mistake, move on and work
to correct the situation. This is something the people might believe. But instead
of effective leadership, however, what we have is a collection of overgrown
schoolboys whose only excuse is <i>‘the dog ate my homework’.<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdAJOvjRkY2pSoGnQyalqI42vpEh0WLWGyWd6btat2RXvUEmJacp-qFMYGQbs5FqGl3Ow4DPbf6ILghpjdfLT2murTMQSlhC5h56AxmDJCYZCcMQdN-TITQJUyss_pUJYepcu0rqygo1dX/s1600/homework.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="202" data-original-width="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdAJOvjRkY2pSoGnQyalqI42vpEh0WLWGyWd6btat2RXvUEmJacp-qFMYGQbs5FqGl3Ow4DPbf6ILghpjdfLT2murTMQSlhC5h56AxmDJCYZCcMQdN-TITQJUyss_pUJYepcu0rqygo1dX/s1600/homework.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is the best excuse ministers can come up with?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Government ministers – obsessed with
WW II – love to invoke the oft-cited </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Blitz Spirit</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> where everyone made a super-human
effort to survive. The image quickly falls apart, however, when you remember
that the war-time government worked quickly to mobilize the population and
develop effective weapons like the famous </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Spitfire</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> fighter plane. While
the NHS is working heroically with dwindling supplies the current government,
in contrast, can’t even come up with a humble face mask let alone a fighter
plane.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The litany of errors and omissions
was hammered home in a lengthy story in one of the government’s staunchest
supporters – <i>The Sunday Times</i>. Normally a back-bone of Tory and Brexit
support the paper condemned the government’s tepid and tardy response to the
virus outbreak. The paper revealed that the initial response was delayed while
the government did a victory lap over Brexit, the prime minister took a
two-week break and didn’t bother to attend critical meetings early in the
crisis, there was no clear strategy to deal with the problem, critical
equipment was in short supply, and vital testing fell far behind countries like
Germany. Adding insult to injury ministers gave no clear explanation for these
omissions. All we got were excuses and vapid promises that ‘<i>things would get
better</i>.’ <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
challenges posed by Covid-19 are indeed huge, but a few other countries like
Germany, New Zealand and even Greece have dealt with them in a far more
professional manner. The government of Greece has accomplished what I
previously thought was impossible – getting Greeks to obey social distancing
rules, even during the Easter weekend.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>While the Germans are administering
more than 100,000 tests per day the UK government can’t even manage 40,000 a
day. The flustered health minister had earlier said they would be conducting
100,000 a day by the end of April. Not likely. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Then Prime Minister Boris Johnson
himself fell ill and spent a few very nervous days in hospital. Fortunately, he
recovered and is now recuperating in the prime minister’s country home. In a
wonderful bit of irony the Brexit-loving prime minister heaped praise on two
nurses who cared for him, but failed to mention that neither of them was
British and that they would have a hard time working in post-Brexit Britain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>His lengthy recuperation is
understandable but again the government was left in a vacuum. Who exactly was
in charge? What poor unprepared unfortunate will be sent in front of the TV
cameras – like a deer caught in headlights -- to explain the unexplainable? Ministers
dodged the tough questions, such as how we get out of this mess, and gave
nothing but bromides about how hard everyone, especially the NHS, is working.
Undoubtedly the NHS deserves all the praise and hand clapping it can get, but I
think more and better protective equipment would undoubtedly be even more
appreciated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbzWB8-vPgqAvivG-ol-5V95yr58i87e5AqQafjy463sQZ8FdTST_QwHAT-LG5o2HV_OBWw7IOdaE30BFCH8sDdl_KyOW1U2SjRrD7vUEqmKO9qtGuZKyPx-k1BInZue6JrBZs0gbEOCF2/s1600/PPE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbzWB8-vPgqAvivG-ol-5V95yr58i87e5AqQafjy463sQZ8FdTST_QwHAT-LG5o2HV_OBWw7IOdaE30BFCH8sDdl_KyOW1U2SjRrD7vUEqmKO9qtGuZKyPx-k1BInZue6JrBZs0gbEOCF2/s1600/PPE.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Exactly why is this critical equipment in short supply?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">For some as-yet-unexplained reason
the country is running out of the personal protective equipment needed by the
front-line staff. Imagine an officer in WW I telling the troops to ‘</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">go over
the top</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">’ dressed only in their underwear and carrying nothing more than mess kits. In a poorly conceived effort to deflect attention from this
glaring problem the government sent the Deputy Chief Medical Officer before the
cameras. That didn’t work out well. I’m sure that Dr. Jenny Harries is an
eminently qualified public health physician. But a skilled communicator with
the ability to calm a nervous nation she is not. She could have admitted the
shortage of equipment and listed a number of steps the government was taking to
remedy the situation. She did just the opposite. With the failures of
preparation obvious to anyone with a pulse she praised the government’s
preparation as ‘</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">exemplar</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">’. You could almost hear TV screens across the
country getting shattered in angry frustration. Then the poor woman couldn’t
stop. She carried on in the best head-girl patronising tone to say that </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">‘we
could have a more adult conversation about PPE supplies.’ </i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">I’m sure there are thousands of NHS staff who
would love to have that ‘</span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">adult</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">’ conversation as they are forced to
re-use old equipment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In the midst of all this the
government said it definitely would <i>not</i> agree to extend the Dec. 31
deadline for a Brexit treaty with the EU. Jesus wept! At a time when the
country has to import much of its food, and the government has to beg, borrow
or steal medical equipment from other countries do the ministers not think it
prudent to extend these negotiations to make up for time lost with Covid-19?
Forget political gamesmanship for once. The only answer I can think of is that they
really don’t want a treaty at all and are happy to have <i>No Deal</i> with all
the ensuing chaos and blame the EU. But this isn’t a school-boy game of
one-upmanship. Real lives are at stake. Maybe it’s time to call in the
grown-ups and shuffle this current group of ministers back to their
well-deserved obscurity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-25023520797171356942020-04-03T18:55:00.001+01:002020-04-03T18:55:44.009+01:00This Crisis Is Bringing Out Long-Buried Skills<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">It’s
amazing how this virus with its lock-down and social distancing edicts has made
us draw on skills that have remained buried deep in our DNA for thousands of
years. The streets are now filled with stealthy hunters gathering early in the
mornings waiting for a herd of fast-disappearing Andrex or the ever-elusive
face masks to come to the local watering hole. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7p3KkQDQacPyUsQdEsSyuqEea-_dvrao86miIjeIx9ZeFD5JHPg_vhDMc4_a9WZU11bfuwBUTDJNkEQywCaawot4D64ilkFnju5CagExMw6Ogu4HZr96JG1qNaCHInOnxNMfhP2MFCUCA/s1600/andrex.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="961" data-original-width="1600" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7p3KkQDQacPyUsQdEsSyuqEea-_dvrao86miIjeIx9ZeFD5JHPg_vhDMc4_a9WZU11bfuwBUTDJNkEQywCaawot4D64ilkFnju5CagExMw6Ogu4HZr96JG1qNaCHInOnxNMfhP2MFCUCA/s320/andrex.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Early hunter gatherers (graphic art courtesy of Mariella)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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</v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
Britain this crisis has also revealed that survival-of-the-fittest Darwinism
and the population theories of Thomas Malthus (both Brits, by the way) are
alive and well. One of the reasons that the UK lags far behind counties such as
Germany in Coronavirus testing is that’s its initial response was the so-called
‘herd-immunity’ – something like ‘</span><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">we’re all going to get sick anyway so
let’s get sick and then the herd (us) will develop an immunity to this virus.
If people die along the way, well that’s too bad but inevitable. So what’s the
point of wasting money on testing.</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">’ Underlying this belief was the unstated
– publicly anyway – belief that this ‘</span><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">culling of the herd’</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> was long
overdue. It was a little disconcerting to hear people who get upset at the
thought of culling badgers express such eagerness for culling a large part of
the human population. Rather makes one feel like the sheep </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">just before Easter.</span></div>
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<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhemFPe9hnvmES77HzanN-Z_ERaNMtLyAmuEDx9Z6yc_5fY_fafHMO_-72iEciXdMFH_7vNq-tTR4wS5XmXQ5BPTC01lW592OUbonHVGiqFlqGNneAimWENvoqTirOzxApolNU_98eYb-qI/s1600/IMG_5734.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhemFPe9hnvmES77HzanN-Z_ERaNMtLyAmuEDx9Z6yc_5fY_fafHMO_-72iEciXdMFH_7vNq-tTR4wS5XmXQ5BPTC01lW592OUbonHVGiqFlqGNneAimWENvoqTirOzxApolNU_98eYb-qI/s320/IMG_5734.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Time to think about moving on -- rapidly</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">After
the death toll from the virus began to mount sharply and the potential </span><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">cullees
</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">expressed some displeasure at being shipped off to the knacker’s yard the
government did one of its patented U-turns. It announced it was working hard to
ramp up testing and that its earlier policy was ‘</span><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">misunderstood</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">’. The
government has quite a bit of ‘</span><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">ramping</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">’ to do. Germany – a country whose
population is larger than the UK’s – manages at least 50,000 tests a day while
the UK can’t even manage 10,000.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">This
enforced home stay has also reinforced my earlier belief that certain home
appliances are not to be touched. I grant you that washing clothes has evolved
a bit beyond women gathering at a local stream and beating one’s clothes over a
handy rock. But it should not be beyond the wit of man to design a machine that
does not require a degree in mechanical engineering to operate. In a burst of
enthusiasm a few years ago when my wife was out I decided to help by doing the
laundry. Simple, right? Put the clothes - regardless of color - in the
machine, dump in a little washing powder, push a couple of buttons and away you
go. Actually, not so simple. Confronted with a control panel that would not be
out of place on a nuclear submarine one resorts to the tried-and-tested formula
of ‘<i>more is better than less and hotter is better than colder.’ </i>Thinking
to save drying time I moved what I thought was the spin dial to maximum, shut
the door and proudly pushed the start button. Alas, the result when I opened
the door about an hour later was not entirely satisfactory. First, what I
thought was the spin dial was actually the heat dial. Therefore, some of the
clothes that went into the washing machine emerged a few sizes smaller. My wife
is small. But not <i>that</i> small. Second, the color. You know, it’s amazing
what very hot water and too much washing powder will do to colors. Suffice it
to say that my view that this by-now multi-colored blouse was quite stylish
was not widely shared. Even in these dire times I am banned from the washing
machine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-XmngTZqDpOyioZ3FksA-hcLte3Q0TOGrGSTFLfBWa_GhQRSf-oorqAbdBUYJ3TwSp1cPpi31W62RPAoN3i4hBl2pXco3VDeg7g8UCIJh34j93xnCvVGh_di3YH-5mAdPTwGo7nandVJj/s1600/washing+machine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="223" data-original-width="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-XmngTZqDpOyioZ3FksA-hcLte3Q0TOGrGSTFLfBWa_GhQRSf-oorqAbdBUYJ3TwSp1cPpi31W62RPAoN3i4hBl2pXco3VDeg7g8UCIJh34j93xnCvVGh_di3YH-5mAdPTwGo7nandVJj/s1600/washing+machine.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Oh well, we tried</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Those
of you have read my two previous posts will be delighted to hear that Emmanuel
Kant has made it down from the upper reaches of the bookcase. Not to be read,
mind you. Not yet, anyway. But in a fit of general cleaning it was
declared that all those books were just gathering dust and it was time to take
them down to way for a duster. It was similarly declared that as long as
the authorities were talking about </span><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">culling</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> it just might be a good time
to a little culling closer to home. I think one or two books might have been
‘deselected’ – temporarily at least – but the others were put back exactly as
they were. Emmanuel was dusted and given pride of place where the sheer bulk of
the volume gave it extra duty as a book-end. As for the deselected books. Now
that the local charity shop has been closed for the duration I suspect those
volumes will find their way back among their brethren.</span></div>
<br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-17754945129401816322020-03-29T16:55:00.000+01:002020-03-31T12:51:39.900+01:00Not Everyone Is Terribly Upset At School Closures<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">On
my allocated time outside I can’t help noticing that there is at
least one group not terribly upset by all the closures – especially school
closures. Children who might have been dreading the next day in
school complete with their unfinished homework have suddenly been given a
reprieve. Their expressions remind one of the young boy in the film <i>Hope and
Glory</i> whose eyes lit up when he turned the corner into his school yard and
found that the Luftwaffe had turned his school into a huge mound of rubble. He
raised his arms in glee and shouted, ‘<i>Thank you Adolf!’</i> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9eh50VTcW_KGQSD1_iU-N5oD3ngwVtGu6RJ8feUm3mckoifQIzwwgsXX7KQNpXATMZa_XUsQhEin40d_QvdLNe7DxuYfp63HDfyve46wIXDYwyxjHr5O6daDv8ynjT0HIKBKgGSTNBsip/s1600/adolf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9eh50VTcW_KGQSD1_iU-N5oD3ngwVtGu6RJ8feUm3mckoifQIzwwgsXX7KQNpXATMZa_XUsQhEin40d_QvdLNe7DxuYfp63HDfyve46wIXDYwyxjHr5O6daDv8ynjT0HIKBKgGSTNBsip/s1600/adolf.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Thank you Adolf!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">It also reminds me when I was that boy’s age in our small town in Vermont. When I say
small, I mean small. There were – and still are – more cows than people. The
only paved road was the one connecting us to a state highway. Everything else
was – and still is – dirt. Rutted with bone-jarring bumps in the summer and
slick with ice and snow in the winter. As kids we loved the winter when our
heavy sleds with steel runners would literally fly down those steep ice-covered
roads hoping against hope that Harold with his big snow plow was not coming up
the hill around the corner.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">But
most of all we looked forward to this time of year when the temperatures began
to climb above freezing and that glorious ice and snow melted, turning the
roads into mud. Real, clinging, knee-deep mud that could pull your boots off. Why
did we like this so much? Simple. No school bus could make the rounds picking
up and dropping off children. We only had about 50 kids in the school
anyway, and most them lived back in the valleys and hills far off the paved
road. Ergo, no bus no school.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">My
mother was never one for sitting still and patiently waiting for the situation
to improve. She noted that the skiing conditions in our area were deteriorating
with the warmer weather and decided we should take advantage of the ‘<i>mud
season’</i> by going to northern Quebec where the temperatures were still
frigid and the snow deep. So we all piled into our car and drove 8 – 10 hours
to Mont Tremblant about 100 miles north of Montreal. None of us had passports.
But in those simpler days nothing like that was needed just to go to
neighboring Canada<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> Mont Tremblant is now a flourishing year-round resort complete with all the mod
cons. Back then only the actual town on the south side of the mountain resembled
a resort with hotels and restaurants. ‘<i>Stuff and nonsense’</i> would snort
my mother as we bounced around the base of the mountain on what amounted to a
logging road in the pitch darkness to the less developed north side of the
mountain. ‘Are you <i>sure</i> we’re on the right road,’ my sister would wail
plaintively as the trees grew ever denser and the ice-covered river ever
closer. ‘<i>Of course. Just a few minutes more</i>,’ would come the
authoritative answer. Two hours later we would arrive at our destination. There
actually was a hotel – a small hotel where the adults and girls would stay. We
boys, however, were consigned to what was grandly called the ‘Barracks’ which
appeared to be designed and appointed by the same contractor who did the German
POW camps featured in many films. There were double-deck wooden bunks and a
huge cast-iron stove which – at that time – was stone cold. Thank God for warm
sleeping bags, long underwear and thick socks. As for hygiene? Well, let’s just
say everything was frozen solid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEcTSXOiLCe6XaZl8scAJTgOksycHLfRfQGoZOeATiD2O_AI0Pzr-TyE-Rm6Bn5v4-6bRVFNaRKAnMp9E8hTQ-hS8DugWRp7plmezzI6WFY_qnI0tJPkdgPbulw4ItCjAwKHYFQ1fDyFoT/s1600/mont+tremlant.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEcTSXOiLCe6XaZl8scAJTgOksycHLfRfQGoZOeATiD2O_AI0Pzr-TyE-Rm6Bn5v4-6bRVFNaRKAnMp9E8hTQ-hS8DugWRp7plmezzI6WFY_qnI0tJPkdgPbulw4ItCjAwKHYFQ1fDyFoT/s1600/mont+tremlant.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mont Tremblant in earlier times</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">But
there were compensations. When we thawed out the next morning, we found deep fresh snow (most of it outside), wonderful trails, and clear skies. And it
was cheap. The bunk house was $1/night. While adults and girls got to eat in
the hotel we were sent to the </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Bears’ Den</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> where you could eat all you
wanted for 25 cents. The food may have been indifferent, but the </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Bears’ Den</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">
had the great virtue of being warm.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">But
the real benefit of these trips was not just the superb skiing. Many of my
fellow inmates in what we jokingly called <i>Stalag 17</i> were students taking
a short break from some of the finest schools and universities in the United States
and Canada. In the absence of traditional </span><i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">aprés</span></i><i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> ski</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> activities we spent
long hours around the by-now working stove – they with their beers and me with
my hot chocolate. These discussions introduced me to a world far beyond my
small home town and motivated me to perhaps take my school work a bit more
seriously. Many years later I was not at all surprised when one of these
students won the Nobel Prize in economics.</span></div>
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</div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Every
couple of days my mother would call home to check on the roads. After a week we
learned sadly that they were drying out and school should resume in a few days.
We repeated this trip for several years
until I had left the small local school and found myself in a place where
attendance was not dictated by the state of the roads and studies were taken
very seriously indeed. But not so seriously that I couldn’t smile at the memory
of <i>Stalag 17</i> and my mother’s determined efforts to fight through
blizzards and ice to get us there and back in one piece.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5842479373699548813.post-72966561212977396812020-03-27T10:01:00.000+00:002020-03-28T08:41:19.728+00:00Simply Getting Out Of Bed Is The Biggest Challenge<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">These
new ‘lock-down’ rules present us all with a brand new set of challenges. The
first one is the challenge of simply getting out of bed. I mean, why bother?
What’s the point? What’s to stop us from spending a comfortable day in bed reading
a good book or watching a movie on a tiny screen while munching biscuits and
spreading crumbs all over the bed?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">If
that challenge is surmounted then we face the issue of getting dressed. Again,
why not just stay in one’s pyjamas? What’s the point of getting dressed just to
travel into the kitchen or dining room? It’s not as if you’re going anywhere.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Well,
if one has a wife firmly grounded in the great British
‘<i>standards-must-be-maintained</i>’ tradition one is driven smartly out of bed into
clean, freshly pressed clothes, and one definitely does not, repeat not, eat
biscuits in bed dropping crumbs everywhere.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Assume
all this accomplished and you even had some breakfast. You still have at
last another 12 or so hours to kill before you’re allowed back in bed. Idle the
day away? Forget it. Beware the lists - lists of things around the house that
were always going to get done ‘<i>some day’</i>. Well, guess what? That day has
arrived. Oven needs cleaning? Break out the instruction book – if you can find
it. Try to understand the fluent Serbo-Croatian most of these things are
written in and bravely dismantle the oven door and racks inside. Then with
toxic chemicals not allowed in most civilized countries you scrub the inside
while hoping that your thin rubber gloves don’t dissolve into a puddle of smoking
rubber. If you survive that then you have to put the damn thing back together
again – with helpful reminders from your wife that you’ve got the door
back-to-front.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikZT1xE3oQTvQgSlCUmr1JHGXFA0ZvWaaqR2ESD36nOGLZHErSQYDUcxR6H-svL_fJUu7WAJI_RmiFjOYrcP_VBptzeAV4tM8HLne7MaOPdMKLe1zggajjpB-EF5N1hXsTs9cJ2PuW0nbJ/s1600/housework.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikZT1xE3oQTvQgSlCUmr1JHGXFA0ZvWaaqR2ESD36nOGLZHErSQYDUcxR6H-svL_fJUu7WAJI_RmiFjOYrcP_VBptzeAV4tM8HLne7MaOPdMKLe1zggajjpB-EF5N1hXsTs9cJ2PuW0nbJ/s1600/housework.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The kid does NOT go in the laundry!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
wardens have allowed us outside once a day for exercise. But right now in
London all this does is prove that the Almighty has a perverse sense of humour.
All winter we struggled with dark, rainy, cold weather. Now, when we can’t
really take advantage of it, the skies are a beautiful cerulean blue, not a
cloud in sight, and the sun beams down on nearly empty parks. I hope He’s
getting a good laugh.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">By
this time even Emmanuel Kant (see the previous post) is beginning to look good.
But not yet. I have, however, only myself to blame for the next activity. To
help keep the brain from turning into porridge I had begun taking German
lessons at the Goethe Institute. Now German – as you might expect – is a
language with a great many rules. Rather like a huge, very complicated jig saw
puzzle where each tiny piece must fit precisely into the right place. Each
pronoun, in the right form of course, and each verb – along with all those
little verb helpers -- has a well-defined place in every sort of sentence. The
problem is, however, that that ‘well-defined place’ keeps changing according to
the nature of the sentence. The Goethe Institute had to close during the
lock-down and I foolishly thought my brain would be given a well-deserved rest.
No chance! These are Germans, after all. The staff came up with a very clever
way to continue the lessons online – complete with a whiteboard and homework.
So much for that well-deserved R&R.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Then,
of course, there are the multiple ways we are supposed to use the internet to
ease the strain of isolation. This assumes, however, that one is familiar with
all the social media platforms or other programs that one can download, upload,
side-load or otherwise cajole into some useful function. Judging by what passes
for communication on some of these platforms isolation begins to look pretty
attractive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The real
social distancing challenge comes if the wide-spread lock-down order remains in
effect for the Orthodox Easter on April 19. Greeks are wonderful people but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- how can I put this politely –<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>natural social distancers or self-isolators
they are not - <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>especially on the biggest
day of the year. Even in London large crowds holding candles gather outside the
Orthodox cathedral around midnight on Saturday to celebrate the <i>Anastasi </i>--
resurrection of Jesus. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6jLh5AU5i3HvCDnV6-NatvKt7fl3RvHw2RBPkl5o3gj5eYG3Kam4B-t3ApQw4BxFNby_e2EkieaUjM5uMHzPeinZ1UpejERGvzmPWOGhXo7FCUZBQpCY3ikbFssbR7BJW7S2gRwjoAOiM/s1600/greek+easter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="159" data-original-width="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6jLh5AU5i3HvCDnV6-NatvKt7fl3RvHw2RBPkl5o3gj5eYG3Kam4B-t3ApQw4BxFNby_e2EkieaUjM5uMHzPeinZ1UpejERGvzmPWOGhXo7FCUZBQpCY3ikbFssbR7BJW7S2gRwjoAOiM/s1600/greek+easter.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Good luck cancelling this one</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Greeks will travel far and wide to be with family and
friends to celebrate Easter weekend. The Lenten fast officially ends with the
midnight service and people then congregate in homes all over the country to
celebrate the ending of the Fast with a large meal in the wee hours of the
morning. Later Sunday morning the air is heavy with the scents of entire lambs
being roasted on spits. By the afternoon the feast is prepared and even larger
crowds gather to partake of the mounds of lamb, goat, sausage, sweets, and the
odd glass of </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">ouzo</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">. It will take a very brave official to ban or even
limit for the sake of a mere virus this celebration that is hard-wired into
every Greek’s DNA.</span></div>
<br />David Edgerlyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17084229580014552247noreply@blogger.com3