Is It 'All Change' in the Middle East -- Again?

 

The Middle East has long been the place where well ordered, ‘reasonable’, plans conceived in the comfortable, air-conditioned rooms in Washington, London or other capitals of Europe go to die. Such has been the fate of all plans since the post-World War I divisions, the disastrous British or French mandates, military coups, clumsy attempts at ‘regime change’, recurring Israeli/Palestinian hostilities, western intervention, and on, and on, and on.

  But the situation on the ground has changed with the sudden Iranian weakness, withdrawal of Russia, powerful Israeli aggression and determination to re-shape the region, the near destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the unending plight of Palestinians once again mere pawns in a vicious game they can’t possibly win.

 Now there is a great deal of chatter about possible new outcomes., new shape of the Middle East. Will the Iranian regime change? If so, will that change come internally or be imposed by military might?  Will Iran continue with its nuclear program? Will the nationalist/religious zealots in Israel achieve their goal of ripping all the Palestinians from their now-diminished homeland and expelling them to distant lands? Who will fill the apparent vacuum in Syria? What role, if any, will Trump’s America play in the re-configuration of the region? And what will happen in Israel itself?

Pre-WW I Middle East

 There is nothing new about turmoil in the region, however, something is different this time. Strong regional players like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Turkey seem unwilling to let outside forces determine the shape of the region. According to conversations I have had with people who know the region well there is a new, strong desire and ability to take matters into their own hands. Doubt they could do much worse than the Western economic/political/military interventions for the last 100 years.

Current Middle East 

 Included in these discussions is speculation about whether the hard-line, uncompromising nationalists in Iran could yield to more pragmatic forces – still very nationalistic but willing to make certain difficult compromises to bring Iran in from the cold. Reconstruction of the Iranian economy will require large infusions of cash and talent. In addition to Western companies that may have a role to play, it is also possible that Turkey and the Gulf countries could supply the required talent and money. What price would Iran be willing to pay to achieve this? Iran would probably have to give up its nuclear weapons goal and remove support for forces like Hezbollah and Hamas. Unlikely? Improbable? Perhaps. But at least such possibilities are on the table.

 The same goes for reconstruction of Syria. None of the regional players would like see groups like ISIS fill the vacuum created by the collapse of the Assad regime. And no one wants a repeat of the chaos that followed the downfall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Very difficult to see any serious reconstruction in Syria going forward without a large Turkish presence. One extremely knowledgeable friend said discussions between Turkey and Saudi on the reconstruction of Syria are already underway. Turkey’s involvement in Syria becomes easier now that the Kurdish guerilla group PKK has surrendered its arms and vowed to give up hostilities against Turkey launched from Syria or Iraq.

 What could any rapprochement between the Arab states and Iran mean for Israel, especially an Israel controlled by Netanyahu and his nationalist allies? Such a rapprochement is probably something they would not like to see because it would present a more unified and stronger counterforce than the country has ever faced. It is difficult to see this new configuration in the region willing to have much to do with an Israel that has larger regional aspirations and that has driven millions of Palestinians out of their homeland. The current Israeli policy of making Palestinian life so miserable that they would welcome expulsion to countries like Libya or South Sudan does not help any possible reconciliation between Israel and its Arab neighbours. In some way, the deportations of immigrants from the United States to South Sudan can be seen as a test run for any later Palestinian ‘relocation.’

Will Israel re-claim the Palestinian West Bank and Gaza?

 There’s not much the Arabs can do to stop such an expulsion – similar to the Nazi effort to find a new homeland – some place like Madagascar - for German Jews before the Holocaust. Arab states are unable and unwilling to intervene militarily. But they can freeze whatever relations they have now, effectively isolate Israel and await developments within Israel. The internal divisions in Israel are deep and who knows how the political struggle will play out. Will Netanyahu stay in power? Will his many opponents compromise with each other create a realistic alternative? There is a great deal of noise inside Israel right now but not much clarity.

 What role, if any, will the United States play? Is it willing to stand aside and let the Arabs and Iranians determine their own fate? Again, very hard to say. The Trump administration’s general ambivalence toward international relations in general and the fear of getting dragged into another no-win Middle Eastern quagmire suggest that Trump would be happy to pass the torch to regional powers. But he is nothing if not mercurial. And only the very foolhardy would attempt to predict anything.

 All one can safely say now is that the situation is more fluid than ever and that the major powers like Russia and United States have reduced influence. It remains to be seen if the local players can indeed shape a new Middle East, one that finally after more than 100 years determines its own course.