A Long Way Around But We Finally Made It

After a circuitous two-day trip we finally managed to escape from the travesty that has befallen Boris Johnson’s Britain and land in Greece. This involved a flight to Geneva then a train trip to Zurich and finally, the following morning, a flight to Athens. Arriving in Geneva one is reminded of something that seems to have escaped the ‘New’ Britain – efficiency. We caught a train directly from the Geneva airport for a comfortable scenic ride directly to the Zurich airport. Train officials were mortified that the train was 6 minutes late. They shouldn’t have worried. This small taste of efficiency was very welcome. British officials, on the other hand, seem to have lost the ability to be mortified by anything, let alone mere train delays. A delay of only 6 minutes would be cause for celebration throughout the country. One more thing, the check-in queue at Swiss Air in Zurich very early on Friday morning was extremely long. But there were more than 20  check-in counters and they were all manned. Consequently the queue moved quickly. The same story at security. Every position was manned and it took less than 3 minutes to clear security despite the crowds.

            Because our trip had originated in the UK we were tested for Covid-19 at the Athens airport. We had previously given our trace-and-track details and were allowed to continue our journey even though the results wouldn’t be ready until the next day.  Had we tested positive – we didn’t – we would have been notified to self-isolate for two weeks. Seemed like a reasonable approach – especially when compared to the ham-handed approach in the UK where there was no attempt at testing (let alone tracking) and arriving passengers were simply told to quarantine for two weeks. Now, when the UK is finally modifying that policy many countries aren’t sure they want British tourists because of the virus spikes in the country.

Track and trace? Promised by June, now delayed indefinitely.

            British governments weren’t always this incompetent. But now there’s a prime minister who acts as though he would be much happier as the master of ceremonies at some pub’s karaoke night rather than lead a serious country. That’s hard work and requires real knowledge of major issues. Much easier to use one’s natural glibness and focus on simple, short crowd pleasing slogans like ‘Get Brexit Done.’

Much more fun than Prime Minister's Question Time

            Even though Britain is starting to re-open the country faces many more serious challenges like a treaty with the European Union and a trade agreement with the United States. Both of these are problematic. If this wasn’t enough they have to figure out how to pay for all billions of Pounds given to support companies and individuals during the worst of the virus.

            The deadline for the treaty stipulating relations with the European Union is December 31, 2020. Failure to agree a treaty by then would mean Britain leaving with ‘no deal’ which would result in total confusion and self-inflicted damage to the British economy. But, sadly, British negotiators seem to have adopted the ‘My-way-or-the-highway’ approach in these talks which were going to be difficult in the best of cases. This is fine if you have the upper hand which the UK most definitely does not. It needs friction-less trade with the EU far more than the EU needs an obstreperous, naively arrogant Britain.

            Unfortunately, Boris Johnson displays little interest in or knowledge of economics. Concerns of business and financial leaders worried about being cast adrift from the country’s largest and most important market interest him not at all. He loves the idea of so-called Global Britain able to form its own trade relations untethered to the cumbersome EU. In theory possible, but that requires the very diplomatic and bureaucratic skills scorned by the current government. It also requires management skills fatally lacking during the Covid-19 crisis.

            The government’s big hope is a trade deal with the United States. After all, Johnson and American president Donald Trump share a deep contempt of the European Union and a deep distrust of independent bureaucratic competence. 

Both of them believe sheer bluster can replace competence

But Johnson will soon discover that it is very hard for a small fish to negotiate equally with a whale. The only way the US would agree to such a trade deal is if Britain basically accepts everything the US wants – namely free access to the health care system and food markets.  This raises fears in many parts of the UK about soaring drug prices and lower food safety standards. Those fears may well be exaggerated but given their acceptance by a large part of the UK population they pose a real hurdle for Johnson. 

On a more practical note, there is absolutely no chance at all of any trade deal being completed before the US presidential election in November. If Joe Biden wins Johnson could face someone much more eager to work with the EU than with an ‘independent’ Britain. I suspect the priority of any trade deal with the UK would slide way down the long list of issues that any Biden administration would face. Johnson would quickly discover that the world is a very lonely place for medium sized countries not connected to any major economic bloc.

Boris Johnson Has Really Accomplished Something Quite Unique

People can love the Tories or loathe them. But up until now they were usually considered a ‘safe pair of hands’ for managing the UK government apparatus. They generally knew how the complicated business of government works. Now, Boris Johnson has achieved something truly quite remarkable in his relatively short time as British prime minister.  Governments can be incompetent. They can be hypocritical. They even can be arrogant. But rarely do they manage all three at once. Johnson’s government, in the short span of five months, has achieved this noteworthy goal. Rather like choosing the first three finishers at the Grand National. Extraordinary, really.

            Driven by ideological zeal not seen since the religious wars of the Middle Ages this government prided itself on being the anti-Establishment Elite. They were going to shake up the stodgy – but hitherto relatively efficient – government apparatus and consign all Brexit unbelievers to the Tower – if not worse. A rousing victory over Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour was followed by a lengthy victory lap. All ministers tainted with some residual affection for strong trade ties with the European Union were quickly purged and sent to re-education camps. They were replaced by nonentities whose only qualification seemed to be memorizing the new Tory anthem. This is the NEW Britain. We will stand proudly alone. We are at last free to develop trade relations with whomever we want. We will change Britain!  And on, and on, and on. You could just picture them marching  in-step proudly down Whitehall arms swinging vigorously under banners proclaiming the New Order.

            And then something unexpected happened. Reality. The real world in the silent, deadly form of Corona Virus slipped unseen under the door (as only a foreign virus would do) and began to devastate large portions of the population. While alarm bells were ringing in most other serious countries Britain’s prime minister – not known for hard work at the best of times – saw no need to interrupt his holiday. Infection, what infection? No reason not to attend a large sporting event or take part in Chinese New Year celebrations.

Infection, what infection. Nice timing, Boris.

            Meanwhile people were inconveniently becoming very ill and dying in large numbers. Again, other countries (dare I mention Germany) were taking early precautions and benefiting from a well-stocked public health service. The brutal, harsh, unforgiving light of this real crisis rapidly stripped away the millimetre-thin veneer of competence of this so-called New Elite. Ministers really didn’t have a clue how to respond and received no guidance from the top. Isolate? Don’t isolate? Keep schools and shops open? Close them? Let everyone get sick and pray for the best? Test and trace? What’s that? Whatever you do, don’t for God’s sake tell me Greece of all countries is testing and tracing!

            And this was even before we get to the sad state of preventive equipment or the catastrophe in care homes.  The PPE cupboard was bare and the government had to scramble around the rest of the world looking for simple things like masks and gloves. When a large shipment of masks arrived from Turkey most of them were unusable. The government never checked that they were made by a newly formed company in Turkey that had never, not once, made a mask. Well done, lads. The sheer bumbling incompetence of the New Elite has us longing for the bowler hats, rolled umbrellas, and pin-striped suits of the Old Elite.

            And then the draconian Lockdown. All of us – well, most of us anyway – were consigned to our homes to avoid getting or transmitting Covid-19. Better late than never – even if most European countries had instituted this policy long before. But then the back door – Heathrow Airport – was left wide open. Thousands of international passengers arrived each day and passed straight through without any testing or tracing at all. By this time the Own Goals were mounting up. The other team didn’t even have to try.

PM's favorite adviser, Dominic Cummings. 

            After almost two months of isolation things are starting to loosen up a little. But just as this is happening the truly hapless Home Office minister – unfazed by reality or the impossibility of enforcement -- proudly proclaims that she is firmly slamming the barn door shut after all the horses have left. All international air travellers arriving in Britain after June 8 must be quarantined for two weeks. Such a step might have been useful at the very beginning of the crisis, but now – when European countries seem to have gotten Covid-19 under some control – it is just pointless window dressing.

            So much for Incompetence. Arrogance is running a close second. Admit they made mistakes? You must be joking. Just send the bruised and battered Health Secretary once again before remorseless TV cameras to assert everything is under control. Of course we’ll have the required testing in just two weeks. Well, actually, better make that six weeks. Rather reminds one of the Charge of the Light Brigade. That didn’t work out well, either.

            Meanwhile, Hypocrisy is making a late charge on the outside. Remember, all of us are in this together. Stay Home. Save Lives. Save the NHS. Unless, of course, you’re a cabinet minister or key adviser. The government could have blunted the impact of wandering ministers and advisers getting caught by simply apologizing and saying it wouldn’t happen again. But then it’s only Old Establishment wimps who see the need to apologize for anything to anyone. This is the age of the Dirty Harry (Make My Day) Tory. Apologize? Of course not. Nothing to apologize for. We’re the new Elite. We can do whatever we want. Boris Johnson went so far as to say he was sorry that people were upset at his key aide’s journey. Not sorry about the journey itself, mind you. Just that some people were upset about it.

Who is running the country? Sir Humphrey or Dominic?

            And this is the team that is supposed to lead the UK to the sunny uplands of prosperity and national pride? Makes Yes Minister look very good indeed. Sir Humphrey, where are you when we need you?

The Dog Ate My Homework

There is absolutely nothing remotely humorous about Covid-19 or the terrible toll it is taking on thousands of families across the UK. If the disease itself wasn’t bad enough the people of the UK are staggering under the additional weight of a blundering, incompetent government more intent on denial and blame shifting than finding solutions. The writers of that wonderful British television series Yes Minister could not possibly in their wildest imagination come up with a script to rival what we are witnessing every day.

            In their constant denial of the obvious lack of preparation ministers ignore the most important rule of political survival – stop digging. Admit the mistake, move on and work to correct the situation. This is something the people might believe. But instead of effective leadership, however, what we have is a collection of overgrown schoolboys whose only excuse is ‘the dog ate my homework’.

This is the best excuse ministers can come up with?

            Government ministers – obsessed with WW II – love to invoke the oft-cited Blitz Spirit where everyone made a super-human effort to survive. The image quickly falls apart, however, when you remember that the war-time government worked quickly to mobilize the population and develop effective weapons like the famous Spitfire fighter plane. While the NHS is working heroically with dwindling supplies the current government, in contrast, can’t even come up with a humble face mask let alone a fighter plane.

            The litany of errors and omissions was hammered home in a lengthy story in one of the government’s staunchest supporters – The Sunday Times. Normally a back-bone of Tory and Brexit support the paper condemned the government’s tepid and tardy response to the virus outbreak. The paper revealed that the initial response was delayed while the government did a victory lap over Brexit, the prime minister took a two-week break and didn’t bother to attend critical meetings early in the crisis, there was no clear strategy to deal with the problem, critical equipment was in short supply, and vital testing fell far behind countries like Germany. Adding insult to injury ministers gave no clear explanation for these omissions. All we got were excuses and vapid promises that ‘things would get better.’

                        The challenges posed by Covid-19 are indeed huge, but a few other countries like Germany, New Zealand and even Greece have dealt with them in a far more professional manner. The government of Greece has accomplished what I previously thought was impossible – getting Greeks to obey social distancing rules, even during the Easter weekend.

            While the Germans are administering more than 100,000 tests per day the UK government can’t even manage 40,000 a day. The flustered health minister had earlier said they would be conducting 100,000 a day by the end of April. Not likely.

            Then Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself fell ill and spent a few very nervous days in hospital. Fortunately, he recovered and is now recuperating in the prime minister’s country home. In a wonderful bit of irony the Brexit-loving prime minister heaped praise on two nurses who cared for him, but failed to mention that neither of them was British and that they would have a hard time working in post-Brexit Britain.

            His lengthy recuperation is understandable but again the government was left in a vacuum. Who exactly was in charge? What poor unprepared unfortunate will be sent in front of the TV cameras – like a deer caught in headlights -- to explain the unexplainable? Ministers dodged the tough questions, such as how we get out of this mess, and gave nothing but bromides about how hard everyone, especially the NHS, is working. Undoubtedly the NHS deserves all the praise and hand clapping it can get, but I think more and better protective equipment would undoubtedly be even more appreciated.

Exactly why is this critical equipment in short supply?

            For some as-yet-unexplained reason the country is running out of the personal protective equipment needed by the front-line staff. Imagine an officer in WW I telling the troops to ‘go over the top’ dressed only in their underwear and carrying nothing more than mess kits. In a poorly conceived effort to deflect attention from this glaring problem the government sent the Deputy Chief Medical Officer before the cameras. That didn’t work out well. I’m sure that Dr. Jenny Harries is an eminently qualified public health physician. But a skilled communicator with the ability to calm a nervous nation she is not. She could have admitted the shortage of equipment and listed a number of steps the government was taking to remedy the situation. She did just the opposite. With the failures of preparation obvious to anyone with a pulse she praised the government’s preparation as ‘exemplar’. You could almost hear TV screens across the country getting shattered in angry frustration. Then the poor woman couldn’t stop. She carried on in the best head-girl patronising tone to say that ‘we could have a more adult conversation about PPE supplies.’  I’m sure there are thousands of NHS staff who would love to have that ‘adult’ conversation as they are forced to re-use old equipment.

           

            In the midst of all this the government said it definitely would not agree to extend the Dec. 31 deadline for a Brexit treaty with the EU. Jesus wept! At a time when the country has to import much of its food, and the government has to beg, borrow or steal medical equipment from other countries do the ministers not think it prudent to extend these negotiations to make up for time lost with Covid-19? Forget political gamesmanship for once. The only answer I can think of is that they really don’t want a treaty at all and are happy to have No Deal with all the ensuing chaos and blame the EU. But this isn’t a school-boy game of one-upmanship. Real lives are at stake. Maybe it’s time to call in the grown-ups and shuffle this current group of ministers back to their well-deserved obscurity.

'None Of The Above' Should Win This UK Election

After one of the most moronic, unedifying campaigns I have ever witnessed British voters are going to the polls on December 12 to choose between a collection of deeply unpopular and flawed political parties with leaders I doubt their mothers would trust.

            The Conservatives behind Boris Johnson, a man of absolutely no known principle or conviction other than self-aggrandizement, appear headed for victory on the back of his mantra-like repetition of ‘Get Brexit Done’. Ask the inarticulate Johnson about the weather and his automated reply will be ‘Get Brexit Done’ All the phones at Conservative headquarters are probably programmed to answer any call with that nonsense. It’s worse than hearing Pachelbel’s Canon in every lift in London.

Boris Johnson shows the chances of 'getting Brexit done' by the end of 2020

             Granted, the Brits are heartily sick of the entire Brexit fiasco, but they are fooling themselves if they think this election will get Brexit done. The devil is truly in the details that will be hammered out in negotiations that will mostly likely extend well beyond Johnson’s mendacious claim of the end of 2020. If he secures a comfortable majority in parliament we can look forward to some rapid Johnson back-peddling on that time table. But he is very practiced at back-peddling and U-turns. Right now he is beholden to the collection of Little England fantasists in his own party who believe that somehow a shrunken, isolated Britain will flourish in a world dominated by large, powerful trading blocs. A rational person would think once or twice about abandoning a tight trading relationship with the UK’s largest partner in order – perhaps – to sign deals independently with countries that have limited trade with the UK. But then, no one ever accused the rabid Brexiteers of thinking rationally. And the Brexiteers’ Holy Grail of an independent trade deal with the United States? Good luck with that one. The UK will be at the complete mercy of a domineering United States. How sad it is to see a once-proud nation reduced to going around the world with a begging bowl.

            And Labour? Jesus wept! Yes, the social welfare safety net in Britain is torn and tattered. Sadly, the current Labour Party is dominated by a so-called radical wing whose thinking really hasn’t advanced very far from ideas first proposed by Lenin’s Bolsheviks at the Second Party Congress in 1903 – held in London at what undoubtedly has become hallowed ground by the current Labour leadership. Labour’s answer to the clear social issues facing Britain is to make everyone poorer. Forget Britain as an aspirational, growing economy where everyone – not just hedge-fund managers – has a chance to grow. Labour views the country’s economic pie as fixed, static with the only question being how to divide that shrinking pie into ever smaller pieces. Soak the Rich is a popular concept in many countries until you realize that that same tiny sliver of the population provides a hugely disproportionate share of the country’s taxes – taxes that could pay for needed social programs. By pretending to march forward with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear-view mirror the Labour Party will find that it has lost touch with much of its traditional base.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn trying to figure out the question

            In this environment of deeply damaged, untrustworthy major parties one would like to think that a rational third party might provide a reasonable alternative. Alas, no. The Liberal Democrats were once the great hope of people who had voted Remain in the 2016 referendum. But the party has had a terrible campaign that focused solely on the unrealistic goal of repealing the famous Article 50 setting in motion the great EU divorce. To compound their problems the party said it would agree to form a coalition with Labour in the event of a hung parliament where no one has a clear majority. This terrified many Tory Remainers who decided to hold their noses and stick with the Conservatives rather than risk Labour getting into power through the back door.

At least he makes one laugh laugh and not weep

            The only comic relief of this dreary campaign has  been watching Nigel Farage channel his inner Dirty Harry as he bangs on about the evils of the European Union. His idea of negotiating a withdrawal agreement is to take a smoking Magnum 45 into the meeting room and tell the assembled Brussels bureaucrats to ‘Make My Day, Punk!’ I’m sure he has a comic career on one of the American cable channels. Or maybe Donald Trump can find a job for him negotiating with North Korea’s mercurial leader Kim Jong-un.

Is Britain Looking At A High Speed Run Straight Off A Cliff?

The only comparison I can make with the current inane Brexit discussions going on in Britain is the final scene from the 1991 classic Ridley Scott film Thelma & Louise where the two women happily run their convertible car at high speed off a cliff. In the current Brexit remake of that film we have fervent Brexiteers Boris Johnson – the man who will do anything to be prime minister – and his boon companion Jacob Rees-Mogg putting the pedal to the metal and hurtling Britain off the cliff and back into what they presume to be the glorious past of Rule Britannia.

Is this all he's promising?

Alas, a more likely outcome is to crash loudly on the rocks of reality at the bottom of the cliff. The truly discouraging point is that no one – not the government and certainly not the opposition Labour Party – has clue what will happen in six short months when whatever ‘deal’ is agreed is supposed to go into effect. The alternatives range from A -- as in Absurd – to Z – as in Zilch.

A major sticking point at the moment seems to be what do with the border between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a member in good standing of the EU. Will there be a ‘hard’ border with customs duties, etc. or a ‘soft’ border more or less replicating the ease of trade between the two parts of Ireland that exists today. The obvious answer – an answer regarded as the third rail in British politics – is the unification of Ireland. But, given the realities of the deep religious divide within Northern Ireland, that option looks Dead on Arrival at the moment.

 

Is this old border post in Ireland going to get re-opened?

Somewhere along the way, lost in all the raucous debate and fevered posturing, is the seemingly simple question of how the quality of real daily life for the average Brit will be affected by a rupture with the European Union. Without offering anything more than mere speculation the Brexiteers assure us that we are headed for the sunny uplands of a rejuvenated Britain freed from the snares of those wily foreigners.

They are a little light on explaining exactly what those sunny uplands will look like. What will replace the ease of trade and travel we now enjoy throughout the European Union? Trade that, among other things, keeps our supermarkets full and prices relatively low. It is important to remember just how much Britain relies of huge volumes of trade each and every day with the EU just to feed itself. Next time you go to the supermarket take a look at the country of origin of what you buy. Then ask yourself what would happen to those products once trade barriers and customs duties are imposed. It’s not a pretty picture.

How many of those trolleys are filled with EU products?

What about travel? Now we enjoy seamless travel throughout the EU. Go through passport controls quickly, enjoy the right of residence, and – very important – have access to health care through reciprocal arrangements between the NHS and other public health providers with the European Health Insurance Card. What is going to replace this convenience and peace of mind? More important is the right that all UK businesses – services and manufacturing – have to operate anywhere in the EU.

Ah, the Brexiteers say, those agreements can be replicated with a fresh new set of treaties when we are free from EU shackles. Right. And exactly who is going to negotiate those treaties? And, given that the much-touted trade model between Canada and the EU took seven years to negotiate, it could be a long, dry trip to those sunny uplands. Furthermore, that Canadian model does not begin to cover the extent of the existing trade between the EU and Britain.

But our sovereignty, the Brexiteers cry out. We will regain our sovereignty. What does that mean, precisely? Exactly how much is the daily life of the average Briton affected by this alleged lack of sovereignty. Does the Queen still sit on her throne? Do local councils continue to exist? Does parliament still exist? I admit this is a dubious point, but at least the building still exists. Do British courts still rule? European courts have some jurisdiction, but hardly total. Is not the Bank of England still free to implement whatever policy it wants? Is sterling not the legal tender throughout the UK?

The argument that Brexiteers fall back on when all else fails is ‘control of our borders.’ Again, this begs clarification. To a very large extent Britain already does control its borders. The fact that it has such difficulty in doing so is not the fault of the EU. But more to the point, official statistics show Britain is hardly flooded with EU immigrants. For example, for the year ended in March 2018 there were 226,000 immigrants from the EU (most of which were from the original EU countries) and 138,00 emigrants, i.e. a net immigration of 88,000. You can lose that many people in Harrod’s in any given day. So, what exactly is the problem that leaving the EU will solve?

The vast majority of immigrants in that time period came from non-EU countries, countries over which Britain has complete border control. There were 316,000 non-EU immigrants for that year, and the vast majority of those – 202,000 – came from Asia. It is worth noting that only 81,000 of the non-EU immigrants left Britain in that year, leaving a total immigration far outstripping those who came from within the EU.

It is well past the time to shed the hyperbolic rhetoric of the Brexiteers and focus instead on exactly how a rupture from the European Union is going to benefit – or hurt -- the daily lives of the proverbial man-in-the street.

Messrs. Johnson and Rees-Mogg have us headed at high speed straight off the cliff edge with absolutely no clarity on what we face in their brave new world. Is this a gamble the British people really want to take?

Brexit Was More A Coup d'Etat Than A Revolution

A very bright friend of mine cast his very, very cynical eye over the Brexit vote and, not surprisingly, came to quite different conclusions than the majority of the post-referendum comment. According to him, very little of any great significance will be changed. I give a brief summary of his views.

“Too many people view this vote as a revolt of the so-called underclasses against the domination of the elites. According to this narrative these underclasses felt very ‘hard-done-by’ because they saw the immigrants and the cosmopolitan people of London racing far ahead of them. Rather than make any effort to join the happy new world order they did the only thing they know how to do and threw the whole cart upside down. Worked in Paris in 1789. Should work in the UK in 2016. What these people forget is that sans culottes of 1789 enjoyed a very brief ‘victory’ before the elites re-established themselves. The exact same thing will happen here. This was much more a coup d'etat than a revolution.”

Is Brexit a revolt by the modern sans culottes?

“The usual doom-and-gloom commentators overlook the fact that the Leave movement was led by members of the very elite the underclasses thought they were overthrowing. It is very doubtful that those underclasses by themselves could have pulled off a Leave victory. No, it took the efforts of these highly educated, wealthy, mostly older members of the ruling establishment to accomplish that feat. What’s odd is that most of them have nothing against the hot button of immigration per se. Some of the immigrants, after all, provide very useful functions like serving a good gin-and-tonic at their golf clubs or maintaining their lush gardens. This section of the elite would never want to be associated with the near-racist rants of clowns like Nigel Farage.

“What does annoy them greatly is the urge by many European Union officials for an ever closer political union. They look back on Britain’s long political history and relative stability and shudder when they look across the Channel at the very confused political history and instability of many continental countries. ‘God forbid that ever comes our way!’

“For them, the EU is fine as a trading bloc, but no more. Their faces flush with indignation at every intrusion of EU courts into the long-established and respected British legal system. ‘Who the hell are those buggers to tell us when we can throw some bomb-throwing mullah into jail for the rest of his natural life? Or, better yet, hand him over to the Americans?!’

“This class of people enjoys going to the fine watering holes of the continent and going through the faster EU line at passport control. They enjoy loading up their cars and bringing home crates of fine French wines without the nuisance of duties. Many of them are multi-lingual and have homes in the garden spots of France, Italy, or Spain. It would be a major annoyance and inconvenience to them if these privileges were forfeited and they had to go through the longer wogs’ line at passport control.

            “What the assorted pundits are also forgetting is that the long and tedious negotiations with the European Union over the its new relationship with the UK will be led by that very elite the underclass thought it was rejecting. Just look at them. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, various columnists for the Daily Telegraph. All of them are card-carrying members of the British elite. The out-of-work coal miners in West Yorkshire won’t get within shouting distance of the negotiating table. Maybe they should. But they won’t.

How clever are they?

             “The UK negotiating team will be dealing with like-minded people in the EU who are also nervous as hell about the right-wing mobs snapping at their heels. It is to everyone’s interest, even the bloody-minded Frogs, to get this thing settled with as little fuss and disruption as possible.

“My rough guess is that in the final agreement the UK will retain trading rights but will have to accept the EU principle of free movement of labor. London’s financial center may take a hit, but that would not bother Joe Blogs of Middle England. He never liked those ‘posh toffs’ with their fat bonuses anyway. The UK will not be subject to the EU legal system, and will not be part of the EU decision making process. It will also not be eligible for any EU subsidies for agriculture or clean energy. An interesting point is the UK’s role, if any at all, in a European defense system that is outside NATO. Also, will the French get testy and deny British companies any role in Airbus?”

“In short, there won’t be much in the new deal what will really please those members of tribal England who thought they had completely rejected the EU. The immigrants will still come, the EU will still impose some niggling little rules, and England’s football team will still fail to advance very far in international competition. The British elite really is quite good at negotiating, and the new deal won’t be terribly different from the old deal. The elite is even better at fudging the reality of any deal arrangement to make it seem something it is not. Plus ça change and all that.”

            We can only hope that the self-styled members of this very British elite are half as clever as they think they are and can control the powerful tribal forces they have unleashed.

Is This A Tory Party Bun Fight Or A Serious Debate?

What should be a serious debate about Britain’s place in the European Union has descended fairly quickly into nothing more than a food fight in a rather exclusive secondary school. On one side you have Prime Minister David Cameron and the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne lobbing day-old bread rolls across the dining room at other Tory party grandees who respond in kind with volleys of butter pats. Stewards at some of London's finer gentlemen's clubs aren't quite sure which members are no longer on speaking terms.

            Make no mistake. This is a Conservative Party issue. Most of the non-political population of Britain seemed perfectly happy muddling along in the bosom of the European Union with the ease of visa-free holidays overriding nebulous issues of ‘sovereignty’. There were a few dissenting voices, but they were largely relegated to some colorful fringe elements. Most of the rest of us are left with mouths agape at the finest example of British fratricide since the civil war in the 17^th century. The Labour Party can only marvel at this sudden turn of good fortune that has taken attention off its own internal problems. 

            Those Tory party members champing at the bit to leave make a great claim about regaining British sovereignty and ending the rule of faceless, unaccountable EU bureaucrats in Brussels. The problem is they haven’t really defined exactly what they mean by sovereignty and how much that perceived sovereignty has been curtailed by Brussels. They forget the considerable success that British diplomats have achieved in winning substantial concessions for Britain. One of the main British victories allowed London to remain the leading financial center in Europe.

In their more fevered moments some members of the Leave campaign sound as if they would like to re-fight the Battle of Hastings. And this time the good, solid Saxons would send the poncey Frenchmen scuttling back across the English Channel to Normandy. One forgets that it was the Plantagenet heirs of those poncey Frenchmen that won eternal glory for the English at Crecy, Poitiers, and Agincourt.

            The debate has divided the British cabinet with several members taking prominent roles in the Leave campaign. The ever-calculating mayor of London, Boris Johnson, has thrown his lot in with the Leave campaign by trying desperately to sound like his hero Winston Churchill during the Battle of Britain. Unfortunately for him his thundering denunciations of the EU make him sound much more like Basil Fawlty than Winston Churchill.

            The main fault of the Leave campaign is that it only speaks in vague generalities about what Britain would look like outside the EU. Oh, there are brave words about how the economy would flourish, trade would soar, British-made justice would rule the land, and the British lion’s roar would once more be feared. But there are precious few specifics about how all this would be accomplished. No answers to questions about British access to European markets. No answers to questions about Britain’s relationship with the United States. No answers to questions about the likelihood of another referendum for Scottish independence. No answers to questions about the willingness of companies to re-locate or even remain in an EU-less Britain. No answers to questions about how seriously an EU-less Britain would be taken by the rest of the world. We are supposed to take it on faith that all would be good in this best of all possible worlds. Right.

            One of the biggest victims of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could well be one of the most important parts of the country’s economy – the financial sector. London is without doubt the financial capital of Europe, if not the entire world. This status could be crippled by Britain’s departure from the EU by eliminating the ability of London-based financial firms to ply their trade in the EU. It’s not just the financial firms at risk. Think of the lawyers, the accountants, insurance companies and others that underpin much of the financial world. How long would they stay in a City of London stripped of its ability to operate within the EU? That crunching sound you might hear could well be the price of London office space landing on the suddenly empty streets.

            The best argument the Leave campaign might use has nothing to do with the imagined loss of British sovereignty to a bunch of Eurocrats. The best argument may well be that the European Union itself is crumbling under the weight of its own internal contradictions. Is it a loose federation of sovereign states? Or is it the beginning of the United States of Europe? Rather than deal conclusively with these hard questions the EU leaders preferred to bask in the glow of good feeling – almost as if they were a bunch of campers holding hands around a campfire singing Kumbaya. Meanwhile the real issues like common monetary policy or common foreign policy were left in limbo.

            If the British referendum on EU membership does nothing else, it should sharply focus the minds of everyone in the EU about the future of the entire project.