Is Britain Looking At A High Speed Run Straight Off A Cliff?

The only comparison I can make with the current inane Brexit discussions going on in Britain is the final scene from the 1991 classic Ridley Scott film Thelma & Louise where the two women happily run their convertible car at high speed off a cliff. In the current Brexit remake of that film we have fervent Brexiteers Boris Johnson – the man who will do anything to be prime minister – and his boon companion Jacob Rees-Mogg putting the pedal to the metal and hurtling Britain off the cliff and back into what they presume to be the glorious past of Rule Britannia.

Is this all he's promising?

Alas, a more likely outcome is to crash loudly on the rocks of reality at the bottom of the cliff. The truly discouraging point is that no one – not the government and certainly not the opposition Labour Party – has clue what will happen in six short months when whatever ‘deal’ is agreed is supposed to go into effect. The alternatives range from A -- as in Absurd – to Z – as in Zilch.

A major sticking point at the moment seems to be what do with the border between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a member in good standing of the EU. Will there be a ‘hard’ border with customs duties, etc. or a ‘soft’ border more or less replicating the ease of trade between the two parts of Ireland that exists today. The obvious answer – an answer regarded as the third rail in British politics – is the unification of Ireland. But, given the realities of the deep religious divide within Northern Ireland, that option looks Dead on Arrival at the moment.

 

Is this old border post in Ireland going to get re-opened?

Somewhere along the way, lost in all the raucous debate and fevered posturing, is the seemingly simple question of how the quality of real daily life for the average Brit will be affected by a rupture with the European Union. Without offering anything more than mere speculation the Brexiteers assure us that we are headed for the sunny uplands of a rejuvenated Britain freed from the snares of those wily foreigners.

They are a little light on explaining exactly what those sunny uplands will look like. What will replace the ease of trade and travel we now enjoy throughout the European Union? Trade that, among other things, keeps our supermarkets full and prices relatively low. It is important to remember just how much Britain relies of huge volumes of trade each and every day with the EU just to feed itself. Next time you go to the supermarket take a look at the country of origin of what you buy. Then ask yourself what would happen to those products once trade barriers and customs duties are imposed. It’s not a pretty picture.

How many of those trolleys are filled with EU products?

What about travel? Now we enjoy seamless travel throughout the EU. Go through passport controls quickly, enjoy the right of residence, and – very important – have access to health care through reciprocal arrangements between the NHS and other public health providers with the European Health Insurance Card. What is going to replace this convenience and peace of mind? More important is the right that all UK businesses – services and manufacturing – have to operate anywhere in the EU.

Ah, the Brexiteers say, those agreements can be replicated with a fresh new set of treaties when we are free from EU shackles. Right. And exactly who is going to negotiate those treaties? And, given that the much-touted trade model between Canada and the EU took seven years to negotiate, it could be a long, dry trip to those sunny uplands. Furthermore, that Canadian model does not begin to cover the extent of the existing trade between the EU and Britain.

But our sovereignty, the Brexiteers cry out. We will regain our sovereignty. What does that mean, precisely? Exactly how much is the daily life of the average Briton affected by this alleged lack of sovereignty. Does the Queen still sit on her throne? Do local councils continue to exist? Does parliament still exist? I admit this is a dubious point, but at least the building still exists. Do British courts still rule? European courts have some jurisdiction, but hardly total. Is not the Bank of England still free to implement whatever policy it wants? Is sterling not the legal tender throughout the UK?

The argument that Brexiteers fall back on when all else fails is ‘control of our borders.’ Again, this begs clarification. To a very large extent Britain already does control its borders. The fact that it has such difficulty in doing so is not the fault of the EU. But more to the point, official statistics show Britain is hardly flooded with EU immigrants. For example, for the year ended in March 2018 there were 226,000 immigrants from the EU (most of which were from the original EU countries) and 138,00 emigrants, i.e. a net immigration of 88,000. You can lose that many people in Harrod’s in any given day. So, what exactly is the problem that leaving the EU will solve?

The vast majority of immigrants in that time period came from non-EU countries, countries over which Britain has complete border control. There were 316,000 non-EU immigrants for that year, and the vast majority of those – 202,000 – came from Asia. It is worth noting that only 81,000 of the non-EU immigrants left Britain in that year, leaving a total immigration far outstripping those who came from within the EU.

It is well past the time to shed the hyperbolic rhetoric of the Brexiteers and focus instead on exactly how a rupture from the European Union is going to benefit – or hurt -- the daily lives of the proverbial man-in-the street.

Messrs. Johnson and Rees-Mogg have us headed at high speed straight off the cliff edge with absolutely no clarity on what we face in their brave new world. Is this a gamble the British people really want to take?

It's Time For Some Honesty About Immigration

Listening to the fevered rhetoric about immigration during Britain’s recent referendum you would think that a tsunami of starving dark-skinned people from the nether regions of the world was about to engulf England’s ‘green and pleasant land.’

            Hyperventilating opponents of the European Union left the impression that the village greens and quaint little tea houses were about to be over-run with Romanian camper vans and swarthy Bulgarians barbecuing God-knows-what on their handy grills. Barefoot, somewhat grimy children would swarm over the once-pristine cricket pitches gobbling up the tea and crust-less watercress sandwiches so carefully set aside for the players.

Is this at risk of being over-run by Eastern European immigrants?

            Unfortunately, facts in highly emotional referendum votes are thin on the ground. What may have begun as principled opposition to the European Union easily morphs into tribal fears of anything different. Since the referendum these tribal fears have led to several very ugly racial attacks in various parts of the country as the UK’s version of the Klu Klux Clan gets going. We were in Southampton last week-end when a peaceful Moslem commemoration of the end of Ramadan had to be cancelled because of fears of racist attacks. The very next day there was a demonstration of people loudly opposed to any and all refugees.

            Britain’s political classes should be ashamed of themselves for failing to confront the issue of immigration head-on long before the vote. I cannot recall one single rational debate on the issue. The stage was left to those who could only express their inchoate outrage at the mere thought of freedom of movement with the European Union. All this anger at the imagined dire state of affairs in the United Kingdom, this frustration at failing to fit in to a globalized world had found its source – the hapless Eastern European immigrant willing to work at jobs no Brit would consider.

           

            Even now, almost two weeks after the vote, there is no thoughtful discussion of the issue, no debate on real issues. For example,

1.     Exactly how many immigrants from the EU are now the Britain?

2.     What percentage of the total British population do they make up? Is a big percentage, small percentage, or completely statistically insignificant?

3.     How would Britain’s health care service work without these recent arrivals? When my wife was in hospital the wonderful, caring nurses and staff were from all over the world. There was not one native Brit among them.

4.     How would London’s booming (until the referendum anyway) construction business thrive without the thousands of Polish workers?

5.     How would Britain’s service industry – hotels, restaurants, shops -- function without the immigrants?

Also, how much investigation has there been into the dark side of immigration – the exploitation of illegal immigrants?

            None of this has been openly discussed, and irrational fears have replaced facts. Many people are now calling for a so-called points system – similar to what Australia uses – to match would-be immigrants to skills required in Britain. Ah yes, but there’s a catch. You might allow in a highly skilled computer expert, but what about his family? Do they get to join him, or do they go to the back of the queue? And then there is there is the bureaucracy. Right now, the UK has absolutely no idea how many people overstay their visa, the border agency is overwhelmed, and tracking people once inside the country is impossible. When informed about someone overstaying their visa the police just laugh and say it is not their problem. And UK officials are supposed to set up something as sophisticated as a point-scoring system!? A daunting task for a country whose rail service would embarrass moderately prosperous Third World countries.

            Furthermore, there’s a potential immigration nightmare if the UK leaves the EU in a huff. Right now there are thousands of refugees living in squalid conditions near Calais. Without a border agreement, what would keep the French from solving that problem by shipping them all to the UK? Why should the French cooperate by keeping them in France rather than shipping them to the green fields of Kent just across the water?

Is Sangatte coming to Kent?

            There are perhaps legitimate reasons to believe the UK was never going to be a good fit into the European Union. Given its long history of parliamentary democracy and a globally respected legal system it is easy to see how UK politicians would reject the very idea of that system being subordinated to the recent, untested EU system of governance. Unfortunately, the EU leaders are tone-deaf to the rising complaints of EU over-reach and are threatening the entire structure. And here we are now at a major cross-roads. Will grown ups or sulky children take us forward?

            I have no idea who the next leader of the Conservative Party will be or just how successful he or she will be in the endless rounds of exit negotiations. I only hope they remember that Britain is a parliamentary democracy, and that parliament should not abdicate its responsibilities to a referendum.

            If the difficult question of immigration is to be part of those negotiations let us at least have some facts instead of raw emotion. Is immigration really a problem, or is it a solution to Britain’s manpower and brain-drain problems? The time for a serious discussion on immigration is long overdue.

Brexit Was More A Coup d'Etat Than A Revolution

A very bright friend of mine cast his very, very cynical eye over the Brexit vote and, not surprisingly, came to quite different conclusions than the majority of the post-referendum comment. According to him, very little of any great significance will be changed. I give a brief summary of his views.

“Too many people view this vote as a revolt of the so-called underclasses against the domination of the elites. According to this narrative these underclasses felt very ‘hard-done-by’ because they saw the immigrants and the cosmopolitan people of London racing far ahead of them. Rather than make any effort to join the happy new world order they did the only thing they know how to do and threw the whole cart upside down. Worked in Paris in 1789. Should work in the UK in 2016. What these people forget is that sans culottes of 1789 enjoyed a very brief ‘victory’ before the elites re-established themselves. The exact same thing will happen here. This was much more a coup d'etat than a revolution.”

Is Brexit a revolt by the modern sans culottes?

“The usual doom-and-gloom commentators overlook the fact that the Leave movement was led by members of the very elite the underclasses thought they were overthrowing. It is very doubtful that those underclasses by themselves could have pulled off a Leave victory. No, it took the efforts of these highly educated, wealthy, mostly older members of the ruling establishment to accomplish that feat. What’s odd is that most of them have nothing against the hot button of immigration per se. Some of the immigrants, after all, provide very useful functions like serving a good gin-and-tonic at their golf clubs or maintaining their lush gardens. This section of the elite would never want to be associated with the near-racist rants of clowns like Nigel Farage.

“What does annoy them greatly is the urge by many European Union officials for an ever closer political union. They look back on Britain’s long political history and relative stability and shudder when they look across the Channel at the very confused political history and instability of many continental countries. ‘God forbid that ever comes our way!’

“For them, the EU is fine as a trading bloc, but no more. Their faces flush with indignation at every intrusion of EU courts into the long-established and respected British legal system. ‘Who the hell are those buggers to tell us when we can throw some bomb-throwing mullah into jail for the rest of his natural life? Or, better yet, hand him over to the Americans?!’

“This class of people enjoys going to the fine watering holes of the continent and going through the faster EU line at passport control. They enjoy loading up their cars and bringing home crates of fine French wines without the nuisance of duties. Many of them are multi-lingual and have homes in the garden spots of France, Italy, or Spain. It would be a major annoyance and inconvenience to them if these privileges were forfeited and they had to go through the longer wogs’ line at passport control.

            “What the assorted pundits are also forgetting is that the long and tedious negotiations with the European Union over the its new relationship with the UK will be led by that very elite the underclass thought it was rejecting. Just look at them. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, various columnists for the Daily Telegraph. All of them are card-carrying members of the British elite. The out-of-work coal miners in West Yorkshire won’t get within shouting distance of the negotiating table. Maybe they should. But they won’t.

How clever are they?

             “The UK negotiating team will be dealing with like-minded people in the EU who are also nervous as hell about the right-wing mobs snapping at their heels. It is to everyone’s interest, even the bloody-minded Frogs, to get this thing settled with as little fuss and disruption as possible.

“My rough guess is that in the final agreement the UK will retain trading rights but will have to accept the EU principle of free movement of labor. London’s financial center may take a hit, but that would not bother Joe Blogs of Middle England. He never liked those ‘posh toffs’ with their fat bonuses anyway. The UK will not be subject to the EU legal system, and will not be part of the EU decision making process. It will also not be eligible for any EU subsidies for agriculture or clean energy. An interesting point is the UK’s role, if any at all, in a European defense system that is outside NATO. Also, will the French get testy and deny British companies any role in Airbus?”

“In short, there won’t be much in the new deal what will really please those members of tribal England who thought they had completely rejected the EU. The immigrants will still come, the EU will still impose some niggling little rules, and England’s football team will still fail to advance very far in international competition. The British elite really is quite good at negotiating, and the new deal won’t be terribly different from the old deal. The elite is even better at fudging the reality of any deal arrangement to make it seem something it is not. Plus ça change and all that.”

            We can only hope that the self-styled members of this very British elite are half as clever as they think they are and can control the powerful tribal forces they have unleashed.

Can The European Union And The UK Avoid A Complete Train Wreck?

After the UK’s slightly surprising referendum results, the ‘Brexiters’ are gleefully extolling Britain’s new found ‘independence’ from the perfidious European Union while most of the sober main-line newspapers are wringing their hands over the country’s descent into prolonged economic and political confusion. Both reactions are premature, at best.

While there are clear winners -- Vladimir Putin and real estate agents in Frankfurt and Dublin for example– and some likely losers such as Prime Minister David Cameron and London’s financial district, the full impact will take months if not years to become apparent.

The biggest loser of the UK's referendum

If, and I do realize it is an enormous If, both the UK and European Union officials exercise just a bit of imagination and some flexibility both sides could emerge from this mess with a semblance of order. There is precedent for the EU forging a new type of relationship with the UK, but other EU countries would first have to get over their collective anger and pique that someone could reject their over-engineered structure.

That precedent, something like a privileged partnership, has been on the table for several years with Turkey. While most of the EU countries reject the very idea of a country as large and autocratic as Turkey becoming a full member they have from time to time offered the idea of this privileged partnership. Essentially, such a partner would enjoy most of the benefits of the trade privileges of the EU, but would not be part of the decision making process. Turkey, with its exaggerated amour proper, always rejected this compromise as being beneath its dignity. What the Turks so indignantly rejected could be very usefully be offered to the UK.

While the exact nature of this partnership would take long and tortuous negotiations to hammer out it is far better that both sides work out a compromise rather than storm off in a huff of injured pride. Broadly speaking the UK would have to recognize that a complete rupture could do serious damage to the Western European economic and geopolitical structure that – while imperfect – has provided an unparalleled level of political and material security to its citizens since the end World War II.

It would be idiotic beyond belief to put this at risk just because of injured pride. A look at Vladimir Putin rubbing his hands in glee at the self-immolation of the EU should reinforce this point. How long does anyone think he would take to increase the pressure on the Baltic states or countries like Romania and Bulgaria to return to the ‘true’ fold?

The EU would have to realize that such a complete rupture would not be in its best interests. Free trade between the UK and the EU benefits both sides enormously. The ‘Brexiters’ in the UK will also soon find out that trade with the rest of the world without the EU behind it could be very difficult with all the new treaties that would have to be negotiated.

Most likely the cost of this trade relationship is the continued free movement of labor within the EU and the UK. Again, while the ‘Brexiters’ loudly condemned this free movement, it is very difficult to see how this free movement within the EU has hurt the UK. Quite the contrary, with the UK’s unemployment rate hovering around 5% it is clear this movement of labor has supported the UK’s growth.

In this new relationship, it is difficult to see the City of London retaining its pre-eminent position. Yes, London, even outside, the EU, offers much deeper financial services than any other place on the continent. But the EU may well insist as part of any deal that UK financial service firms can operate in the EU only if they are based in the EU. The only two EU cities that have any of the required financial infrastructure to handle such an influx of business are Dublin and Frankfurt.

In short, there is plenty of room for both sides to reach a compromise that does not threaten the geopolitical structure of Western Europe. But first, EU officials must recognize that the common perception of them as elitist, dogmatic, undemocratic technocrats out of touch with real citizens has led to this impasse. It is well past time for them to do a little soul-searching about their constant over-reach and intrusion into the life styles of member states.

It would also be nice if the ‘Brexiters’, for their part, recognized that no country has the absolute sovereignty they loudly proclaim. The world is simply too interconnected these days. A wrong word in London, Beijing, New York, Tokyo, or Berlin can have an instant economic and political impact. We will soon see if both sides are mature enough to step back from the abyss they have opened to reach a reasonable compromise.

          Then again, maybe nothing much has changed Britain's view of the European Union since the days of the famous comedy series Yes Minister.