The Dog Ate My Homework

There is absolutely nothing remotely humorous about Covid-19 or the terrible toll it is taking on thousands of families across the UK. If the disease itself wasn’t bad enough the people of the UK are staggering under the additional weight of a blundering, incompetent government more intent on denial and blame shifting than finding solutions. The writers of that wonderful British television series Yes Minister could not possibly in their wildest imagination come up with a script to rival what we are witnessing every day.

            In their constant denial of the obvious lack of preparation ministers ignore the most important rule of political survival – stop digging. Admit the mistake, move on and work to correct the situation. This is something the people might believe. But instead of effective leadership, however, what we have is a collection of overgrown schoolboys whose only excuse is ‘the dog ate my homework’.

This is the best excuse ministers can come up with?

            Government ministers – obsessed with WW II – love to invoke the oft-cited Blitz Spirit where everyone made a super-human effort to survive. The image quickly falls apart, however, when you remember that the war-time government worked quickly to mobilize the population and develop effective weapons like the famous Spitfire fighter plane. While the NHS is working heroically with dwindling supplies the current government, in contrast, can’t even come up with a humble face mask let alone a fighter plane.

            The litany of errors and omissions was hammered home in a lengthy story in one of the government’s staunchest supporters – The Sunday Times. Normally a back-bone of Tory and Brexit support the paper condemned the government’s tepid and tardy response to the virus outbreak. The paper revealed that the initial response was delayed while the government did a victory lap over Brexit, the prime minister took a two-week break and didn’t bother to attend critical meetings early in the crisis, there was no clear strategy to deal with the problem, critical equipment was in short supply, and vital testing fell far behind countries like Germany. Adding insult to injury ministers gave no clear explanation for these omissions. All we got were excuses and vapid promises that ‘things would get better.’

                        The challenges posed by Covid-19 are indeed huge, but a few other countries like Germany, New Zealand and even Greece have dealt with them in a far more professional manner. The government of Greece has accomplished what I previously thought was impossible – getting Greeks to obey social distancing rules, even during the Easter weekend.

            While the Germans are administering more than 100,000 tests per day the UK government can’t even manage 40,000 a day. The flustered health minister had earlier said they would be conducting 100,000 a day by the end of April. Not likely.

            Then Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself fell ill and spent a few very nervous days in hospital. Fortunately, he recovered and is now recuperating in the prime minister’s country home. In a wonderful bit of irony the Brexit-loving prime minister heaped praise on two nurses who cared for him, but failed to mention that neither of them was British and that they would have a hard time working in post-Brexit Britain.

            His lengthy recuperation is understandable but again the government was left in a vacuum. Who exactly was in charge? What poor unprepared unfortunate will be sent in front of the TV cameras – like a deer caught in headlights -- to explain the unexplainable? Ministers dodged the tough questions, such as how we get out of this mess, and gave nothing but bromides about how hard everyone, especially the NHS, is working. Undoubtedly the NHS deserves all the praise and hand clapping it can get, but I think more and better protective equipment would undoubtedly be even more appreciated.

Exactly why is this critical equipment in short supply?

            For some as-yet-unexplained reason the country is running out of the personal protective equipment needed by the front-line staff. Imagine an officer in WW I telling the troops to ‘go over the top’ dressed only in their underwear and carrying nothing more than mess kits. In a poorly conceived effort to deflect attention from this glaring problem the government sent the Deputy Chief Medical Officer before the cameras. That didn’t work out well. I’m sure that Dr. Jenny Harries is an eminently qualified public health physician. But a skilled communicator with the ability to calm a nervous nation she is not. She could have admitted the shortage of equipment and listed a number of steps the government was taking to remedy the situation. She did just the opposite. With the failures of preparation obvious to anyone with a pulse she praised the government’s preparation as ‘exemplar’. You could almost hear TV screens across the country getting shattered in angry frustration. Then the poor woman couldn’t stop. She carried on in the best head-girl patronising tone to say that ‘we could have a more adult conversation about PPE supplies.’  I’m sure there are thousands of NHS staff who would love to have that ‘adult’ conversation as they are forced to re-use old equipment.

           

            In the midst of all this the government said it definitely would not agree to extend the Dec. 31 deadline for a Brexit treaty with the EU. Jesus wept! At a time when the country has to import much of its food, and the government has to beg, borrow or steal medical equipment from other countries do the ministers not think it prudent to extend these negotiations to make up for time lost with Covid-19? Forget political gamesmanship for once. The only answer I can think of is that they really don’t want a treaty at all and are happy to have No Deal with all the ensuing chaos and blame the EU. But this isn’t a school-boy game of one-upmanship. Real lives are at stake. Maybe it’s time to call in the grown-ups and shuffle this current group of ministers back to their well-deserved obscurity.

'None Of The Above' Should Win This UK Election

After one of the most moronic, unedifying campaigns I have ever witnessed British voters are going to the polls on December 12 to choose between a collection of deeply unpopular and flawed political parties with leaders I doubt their mothers would trust.

            The Conservatives behind Boris Johnson, a man of absolutely no known principle or conviction other than self-aggrandizement, appear headed for victory on the back of his mantra-like repetition of ‘Get Brexit Done’. Ask the inarticulate Johnson about the weather and his automated reply will be ‘Get Brexit Done’ All the phones at Conservative headquarters are probably programmed to answer any call with that nonsense. It’s worse than hearing Pachelbel’s Canon in every lift in London.

Boris Johnson shows the chances of 'getting Brexit done' by the end of 2020

             Granted, the Brits are heartily sick of the entire Brexit fiasco, but they are fooling themselves if they think this election will get Brexit done. The devil is truly in the details that will be hammered out in negotiations that will mostly likely extend well beyond Johnson’s mendacious claim of the end of 2020. If he secures a comfortable majority in parliament we can look forward to some rapid Johnson back-peddling on that time table. But he is very practiced at back-peddling and U-turns. Right now he is beholden to the collection of Little England fantasists in his own party who believe that somehow a shrunken, isolated Britain will flourish in a world dominated by large, powerful trading blocs. A rational person would think once or twice about abandoning a tight trading relationship with the UK’s largest partner in order – perhaps – to sign deals independently with countries that have limited trade with the UK. But then, no one ever accused the rabid Brexiteers of thinking rationally. And the Brexiteers’ Holy Grail of an independent trade deal with the United States? Good luck with that one. The UK will be at the complete mercy of a domineering United States. How sad it is to see a once-proud nation reduced to going around the world with a begging bowl.

            And Labour? Jesus wept! Yes, the social welfare safety net in Britain is torn and tattered. Sadly, the current Labour Party is dominated by a so-called radical wing whose thinking really hasn’t advanced very far from ideas first proposed by Lenin’s Bolsheviks at the Second Party Congress in 1903 – held in London at what undoubtedly has become hallowed ground by the current Labour leadership. Labour’s answer to the clear social issues facing Britain is to make everyone poorer. Forget Britain as an aspirational, growing economy where everyone – not just hedge-fund managers – has a chance to grow. Labour views the country’s economic pie as fixed, static with the only question being how to divide that shrinking pie into ever smaller pieces. Soak the Rich is a popular concept in many countries until you realize that that same tiny sliver of the population provides a hugely disproportionate share of the country’s taxes – taxes that could pay for needed social programs. By pretending to march forward with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear-view mirror the Labour Party will find that it has lost touch with much of its traditional base.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn trying to figure out the question

            In this environment of deeply damaged, untrustworthy major parties one would like to think that a rational third party might provide a reasonable alternative. Alas, no. The Liberal Democrats were once the great hope of people who had voted Remain in the 2016 referendum. But the party has had a terrible campaign that focused solely on the unrealistic goal of repealing the famous Article 50 setting in motion the great EU divorce. To compound their problems the party said it would agree to form a coalition with Labour in the event of a hung parliament where no one has a clear majority. This terrified many Tory Remainers who decided to hold their noses and stick with the Conservatives rather than risk Labour getting into power through the back door.

At least he makes one laugh laugh and not weep

            The only comic relief of this dreary campaign has  been watching Nigel Farage channel his inner Dirty Harry as he bangs on about the evils of the European Union. His idea of negotiating a withdrawal agreement is to take a smoking Magnum 45 into the meeting room and tell the assembled Brussels bureaucrats to ‘Make My Day, Punk!’ I’m sure he has a comic career on one of the American cable channels. Or maybe Donald Trump can find a job for him negotiating with North Korea’s mercurial leader Kim Jong-un.

Is Britain Looking At A High Speed Run Straight Off A Cliff?

The only comparison I can make with the current inane Brexit discussions going on in Britain is the final scene from the 1991 classic Ridley Scott film Thelma & Louise where the two women happily run their convertible car at high speed off a cliff. In the current Brexit remake of that film we have fervent Brexiteers Boris Johnson – the man who will do anything to be prime minister – and his boon companion Jacob Rees-Mogg putting the pedal to the metal and hurtling Britain off the cliff and back into what they presume to be the glorious past of Rule Britannia.

Is this all he's promising?

Alas, a more likely outcome is to crash loudly on the rocks of reality at the bottom of the cliff. The truly discouraging point is that no one – not the government and certainly not the opposition Labour Party – has clue what will happen in six short months when whatever ‘deal’ is agreed is supposed to go into effect. The alternatives range from A -- as in Absurd – to Z – as in Zilch.

A major sticking point at the moment seems to be what do with the border between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a member in good standing of the EU. Will there be a ‘hard’ border with customs duties, etc. or a ‘soft’ border more or less replicating the ease of trade between the two parts of Ireland that exists today. The obvious answer – an answer regarded as the third rail in British politics – is the unification of Ireland. But, given the realities of the deep religious divide within Northern Ireland, that option looks Dead on Arrival at the moment.

 

Is this old border post in Ireland going to get re-opened?

Somewhere along the way, lost in all the raucous debate and fevered posturing, is the seemingly simple question of how the quality of real daily life for the average Brit will be affected by a rupture with the European Union. Without offering anything more than mere speculation the Brexiteers assure us that we are headed for the sunny uplands of a rejuvenated Britain freed from the snares of those wily foreigners.

They are a little light on explaining exactly what those sunny uplands will look like. What will replace the ease of trade and travel we now enjoy throughout the European Union? Trade that, among other things, keeps our supermarkets full and prices relatively low. It is important to remember just how much Britain relies of huge volumes of trade each and every day with the EU just to feed itself. Next time you go to the supermarket take a look at the country of origin of what you buy. Then ask yourself what would happen to those products once trade barriers and customs duties are imposed. It’s not a pretty picture.

How many of those trolleys are filled with EU products?

What about travel? Now we enjoy seamless travel throughout the EU. Go through passport controls quickly, enjoy the right of residence, and – very important – have access to health care through reciprocal arrangements between the NHS and other public health providers with the European Health Insurance Card. What is going to replace this convenience and peace of mind? More important is the right that all UK businesses – services and manufacturing – have to operate anywhere in the EU.

Ah, the Brexiteers say, those agreements can be replicated with a fresh new set of treaties when we are free from EU shackles. Right. And exactly who is going to negotiate those treaties? And, given that the much-touted trade model between Canada and the EU took seven years to negotiate, it could be a long, dry trip to those sunny uplands. Furthermore, that Canadian model does not begin to cover the extent of the existing trade between the EU and Britain.

But our sovereignty, the Brexiteers cry out. We will regain our sovereignty. What does that mean, precisely? Exactly how much is the daily life of the average Briton affected by this alleged lack of sovereignty. Does the Queen still sit on her throne? Do local councils continue to exist? Does parliament still exist? I admit this is a dubious point, but at least the building still exists. Do British courts still rule? European courts have some jurisdiction, but hardly total. Is not the Bank of England still free to implement whatever policy it wants? Is sterling not the legal tender throughout the UK?

The argument that Brexiteers fall back on when all else fails is ‘control of our borders.’ Again, this begs clarification. To a very large extent Britain already does control its borders. The fact that it has such difficulty in doing so is not the fault of the EU. But more to the point, official statistics show Britain is hardly flooded with EU immigrants. For example, for the year ended in March 2018 there were 226,000 immigrants from the EU (most of which were from the original EU countries) and 138,00 emigrants, i.e. a net immigration of 88,000. You can lose that many people in Harrod’s in any given day. So, what exactly is the problem that leaving the EU will solve?

The vast majority of immigrants in that time period came from non-EU countries, countries over which Britain has complete border control. There were 316,000 non-EU immigrants for that year, and the vast majority of those – 202,000 – came from Asia. It is worth noting that only 81,000 of the non-EU immigrants left Britain in that year, leaving a total immigration far outstripping those who came from within the EU.

It is well past the time to shed the hyperbolic rhetoric of the Brexiteers and focus instead on exactly how a rupture from the European Union is going to benefit – or hurt -- the daily lives of the proverbial man-in-the street.

Messrs. Johnson and Rees-Mogg have us headed at high speed straight off the cliff edge with absolutely no clarity on what we face in their brave new world. Is this a gamble the British people really want to take?

Ghosts From The Past Have Much To Teach Us

The growing number of leaders around the world wanting to turn their countries into stagnant ponds filled with frightened xenophobes should take a careful look at two of the two of the longest-lived empires the world has ever seen. They would learn that one of the main reasons for the 1,600-year collective longevity of the Byzantine and Ottoman empires in what was then, as now, a very troubled part of the world was their willingness to incorporate outsiders into the very fabric of the empire.

Unlike today’s leaders they saw the value, the necessity, of bringing fresh ideas, different experiences into the empire. Not for them the narrow-minded fear of ‘Johnny foreigner.’

The Byzantine Empire lasted about 1,000 years from the mid-4^th century AD to the mid-15^th century. During that time, it was surrounded by threats on all sides such as Persians, Avars, Russians, Bulgars, Latins, Visogoths, Arabs, Mongols, Turkic tribes, and finally the Ottoman Turks. The Byzantines are too easily dismissed in much of today’s history books as effete, unreliable, and more obsessed with bloody palace intrigue than true statesmanship. That simplistic characterization obscures their ability to adjust to rapidly changing circumstances. The 1,000-year run didn’t happen by chance alone.

Byzantine Emperors Justinian and Constantine presenting Haghia Sophia and city to the Virgin Mary

When strong enough, resort to military measures. When weaker, resort to diplomacy and what we call today ‘soft power.’ Compared to much of the rest of the region the Byzantine Empire, more particularly the glories of Constantinople, was so splendid that many foreigner rulers were gladly co-opted into that splendour and, in some cases, the Orthodox faith. The period was highlighted by strategic inter-marriages, alliances, financial tribute, trading privileges and much more. Jonathan Harris put it very nicely in his recent book The Lost World of Byzantium.

“Thus if Byzantium has one outstanding legacy it is not perhaps Orthodox Christianity or its preservation of classical Greek literature. Rather it is the lesson that the strength of a society lies in its ability to adapt and incorporate outsiders in even the most adverse circumstances.”

            The Byzantine Empire finally and totally collapsed one spring day in 1453 when the Ottoman Turks succeeded where so many others had failed and breached the formidable walls that had protected Constantinople since the 5^th century. The Byzantine Empire may have disappeared as a political and military entity, but the early Ottoman leaders were smart enough to maintain the essential characteristics of religious tolerance and using talent wherever they found it. Far from being frightened by religious or ethnic diversity these Moslem leaders valued the strength that diversity gave the Empire.

            In a new book, Aleppo, The Rise and Fall of Syria’s Great Merchant City, Philip Mansel recounts some advice that Suleyman the Magnificent gave to his council that was considering expelling Jews from the province in the mid-16^th century.

“The more sorts of nations I have in my dominion under me as Turks, Moors, Grecians, etc. the greater the authority they bring to my kingdoms and make them more famous. And that nothing may fall off from my greatness, I think it convenient that all that have been together long hitherto, may be kept and tolerated so still for the future.”

 

Suleyman, perhaps the greatest of the Ottoman sultans

            The Jews stayed put in Aleppo and continued to contribute to Suleyman’s greatness. It is no coincidence that the ultimate decline of the Ottoman Empire was hastened when its rulers ignored Suleyman’s advice on the value of diversity. The greatest of Ottoman sultans must be looking on modern Turkey with great despair as the current rulers do their best to eradicate all traces of that tolerance and diversity.

            But Turkey is far from being alone in its headlong retreat from those two values. One need only to look at some of the countries in the European Union where walls and barbed wire have replaced Welcome signs. And then there’s Donald Trump in the United States. He not only has pledged to build a gigantic wall along the Mexican border but to expel more than 10 million immigrants now living in the U.S. The famous Statue of Liberty must be blushing at the thought of that happening.

            The shameful immigration ‘debate’ in Britain is so far a debate without any facts or even a real discussion. The anti-immigrant rantings of UKIP and many Tory members of parliament are taken at face value without a shred of proof that foreigners – specifically those from the European Union -- are taking over the country. The actual, official, numbers on immigration into Britain tell quite a different story – one that demonstrates clearly that crust-less watercress sandwiches and tea are not about to be replaced by kielbasa and vodka. But bringing this reality into the debate would require an act of statesmanship and political courage – two qualities completely lacking in the entire Brexit discussion up to now. Those two long-gone empires have a great deal to teach modern politicians.

Brexit Was More A Coup d'Etat Than A Revolution

A very bright friend of mine cast his very, very cynical eye over the Brexit vote and, not surprisingly, came to quite different conclusions than the majority of the post-referendum comment. According to him, very little of any great significance will be changed. I give a brief summary of his views.

“Too many people view this vote as a revolt of the so-called underclasses against the domination of the elites. According to this narrative these underclasses felt very ‘hard-done-by’ because they saw the immigrants and the cosmopolitan people of London racing far ahead of them. Rather than make any effort to join the happy new world order they did the only thing they know how to do and threw the whole cart upside down. Worked in Paris in 1789. Should work in the UK in 2016. What these people forget is that sans culottes of 1789 enjoyed a very brief ‘victory’ before the elites re-established themselves. The exact same thing will happen here. This was much more a coup d'etat than a revolution.”

Is Brexit a revolt by the modern sans culottes?

“The usual doom-and-gloom commentators overlook the fact that the Leave movement was led by members of the very elite the underclasses thought they were overthrowing. It is very doubtful that those underclasses by themselves could have pulled off a Leave victory. No, it took the efforts of these highly educated, wealthy, mostly older members of the ruling establishment to accomplish that feat. What’s odd is that most of them have nothing against the hot button of immigration per se. Some of the immigrants, after all, provide very useful functions like serving a good gin-and-tonic at their golf clubs or maintaining their lush gardens. This section of the elite would never want to be associated with the near-racist rants of clowns like Nigel Farage.

“What does annoy them greatly is the urge by many European Union officials for an ever closer political union. They look back on Britain’s long political history and relative stability and shudder when they look across the Channel at the very confused political history and instability of many continental countries. ‘God forbid that ever comes our way!’

“For them, the EU is fine as a trading bloc, but no more. Their faces flush with indignation at every intrusion of EU courts into the long-established and respected British legal system. ‘Who the hell are those buggers to tell us when we can throw some bomb-throwing mullah into jail for the rest of his natural life? Or, better yet, hand him over to the Americans?!’

“This class of people enjoys going to the fine watering holes of the continent and going through the faster EU line at passport control. They enjoy loading up their cars and bringing home crates of fine French wines without the nuisance of duties. Many of them are multi-lingual and have homes in the garden spots of France, Italy, or Spain. It would be a major annoyance and inconvenience to them if these privileges were forfeited and they had to go through the longer wogs’ line at passport control.

            “What the assorted pundits are also forgetting is that the long and tedious negotiations with the European Union over the its new relationship with the UK will be led by that very elite the underclass thought it was rejecting. Just look at them. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, various columnists for the Daily Telegraph. All of them are card-carrying members of the British elite. The out-of-work coal miners in West Yorkshire won’t get within shouting distance of the negotiating table. Maybe they should. But they won’t.

How clever are they?

             “The UK negotiating team will be dealing with like-minded people in the EU who are also nervous as hell about the right-wing mobs snapping at their heels. It is to everyone’s interest, even the bloody-minded Frogs, to get this thing settled with as little fuss and disruption as possible.

“My rough guess is that in the final agreement the UK will retain trading rights but will have to accept the EU principle of free movement of labor. London’s financial center may take a hit, but that would not bother Joe Blogs of Middle England. He never liked those ‘posh toffs’ with their fat bonuses anyway. The UK will not be subject to the EU legal system, and will not be part of the EU decision making process. It will also not be eligible for any EU subsidies for agriculture or clean energy. An interesting point is the UK’s role, if any at all, in a European defense system that is outside NATO. Also, will the French get testy and deny British companies any role in Airbus?”

“In short, there won’t be much in the new deal what will really please those members of tribal England who thought they had completely rejected the EU. The immigrants will still come, the EU will still impose some niggling little rules, and England’s football team will still fail to advance very far in international competition. The British elite really is quite good at negotiating, and the new deal won’t be terribly different from the old deal. The elite is even better at fudging the reality of any deal arrangement to make it seem something it is not. Plus ça change and all that.”

            We can only hope that the self-styled members of this very British elite are half as clever as they think they are and can control the powerful tribal forces they have unleashed.