It's Time For Some Honesty About Immigration

Listening to the fevered rhetoric about immigration during Britain’s recent referendum you would think that a tsunami of starving dark-skinned people from the nether regions of the world was about to engulf England’s ‘green and pleasant land.’

            Hyperventilating opponents of the European Union left the impression that the village greens and quaint little tea houses were about to be over-run with Romanian camper vans and swarthy Bulgarians barbecuing God-knows-what on their handy grills. Barefoot, somewhat grimy children would swarm over the once-pristine cricket pitches gobbling up the tea and crust-less watercress sandwiches so carefully set aside for the players.

Is this at risk of being over-run by Eastern European immigrants?

            Unfortunately, facts in highly emotional referendum votes are thin on the ground. What may have begun as principled opposition to the European Union easily morphs into tribal fears of anything different. Since the referendum these tribal fears have led to several very ugly racial attacks in various parts of the country as the UK’s version of the Klu Klux Clan gets going. We were in Southampton last week-end when a peaceful Moslem commemoration of the end of Ramadan had to be cancelled because of fears of racist attacks. The very next day there was a demonstration of people loudly opposed to any and all refugees.

            Britain’s political classes should be ashamed of themselves for failing to confront the issue of immigration head-on long before the vote. I cannot recall one single rational debate on the issue. The stage was left to those who could only express their inchoate outrage at the mere thought of freedom of movement with the European Union. All this anger at the imagined dire state of affairs in the United Kingdom, this frustration at failing to fit in to a globalized world had found its source – the hapless Eastern European immigrant willing to work at jobs no Brit would consider.

           

            Even now, almost two weeks after the vote, there is no thoughtful discussion of the issue, no debate on real issues. For example,

1.     Exactly how many immigrants from the EU are now the Britain?

2.     What percentage of the total British population do they make up? Is a big percentage, small percentage, or completely statistically insignificant?

3.     How would Britain’s health care service work without these recent arrivals? When my wife was in hospital the wonderful, caring nurses and staff were from all over the world. There was not one native Brit among them.

4.     How would London’s booming (until the referendum anyway) construction business thrive without the thousands of Polish workers?

5.     How would Britain’s service industry – hotels, restaurants, shops -- function without the immigrants?

Also, how much investigation has there been into the dark side of immigration – the exploitation of illegal immigrants?

            None of this has been openly discussed, and irrational fears have replaced facts. Many people are now calling for a so-called points system – similar to what Australia uses – to match would-be immigrants to skills required in Britain. Ah yes, but there’s a catch. You might allow in a highly skilled computer expert, but what about his family? Do they get to join him, or do they go to the back of the queue? And then there is there is the bureaucracy. Right now, the UK has absolutely no idea how many people overstay their visa, the border agency is overwhelmed, and tracking people once inside the country is impossible. When informed about someone overstaying their visa the police just laugh and say it is not their problem. And UK officials are supposed to set up something as sophisticated as a point-scoring system!? A daunting task for a country whose rail service would embarrass moderately prosperous Third World countries.

            Furthermore, there’s a potential immigration nightmare if the UK leaves the EU in a huff. Right now there are thousands of refugees living in squalid conditions near Calais. Without a border agreement, what would keep the French from solving that problem by shipping them all to the UK? Why should the French cooperate by keeping them in France rather than shipping them to the green fields of Kent just across the water?

Is Sangatte coming to Kent?

            There are perhaps legitimate reasons to believe the UK was never going to be a good fit into the European Union. Given its long history of parliamentary democracy and a globally respected legal system it is easy to see how UK politicians would reject the very idea of that system being subordinated to the recent, untested EU system of governance. Unfortunately, the EU leaders are tone-deaf to the rising complaints of EU over-reach and are threatening the entire structure. And here we are now at a major cross-roads. Will grown ups or sulky children take us forward?

            I have no idea who the next leader of the Conservative Party will be or just how successful he or she will be in the endless rounds of exit negotiations. I only hope they remember that Britain is a parliamentary democracy, and that parliament should not abdicate its responsibilities to a referendum.

            If the difficult question of immigration is to be part of those negotiations let us at least have some facts instead of raw emotion. Is immigration really a problem, or is it a solution to Britain’s manpower and brain-drain problems? The time for a serious discussion on immigration is long overdue.

Can The European Union And The UK Avoid A Complete Train Wreck?

After the UK’s slightly surprising referendum results, the ‘Brexiters’ are gleefully extolling Britain’s new found ‘independence’ from the perfidious European Union while most of the sober main-line newspapers are wringing their hands over the country’s descent into prolonged economic and political confusion. Both reactions are premature, at best.

While there are clear winners -- Vladimir Putin and real estate agents in Frankfurt and Dublin for example– and some likely losers such as Prime Minister David Cameron and London’s financial district, the full impact will take months if not years to become apparent.

The biggest loser of the UK's referendum

If, and I do realize it is an enormous If, both the UK and European Union officials exercise just a bit of imagination and some flexibility both sides could emerge from this mess with a semblance of order. There is precedent for the EU forging a new type of relationship with the UK, but other EU countries would first have to get over their collective anger and pique that someone could reject their over-engineered structure.

That precedent, something like a privileged partnership, has been on the table for several years with Turkey. While most of the EU countries reject the very idea of a country as large and autocratic as Turkey becoming a full member they have from time to time offered the idea of this privileged partnership. Essentially, such a partner would enjoy most of the benefits of the trade privileges of the EU, but would not be part of the decision making process. Turkey, with its exaggerated amour proper, always rejected this compromise as being beneath its dignity. What the Turks so indignantly rejected could be very usefully be offered to the UK.

While the exact nature of this partnership would take long and tortuous negotiations to hammer out it is far better that both sides work out a compromise rather than storm off in a huff of injured pride. Broadly speaking the UK would have to recognize that a complete rupture could do serious damage to the Western European economic and geopolitical structure that – while imperfect – has provided an unparalleled level of political and material security to its citizens since the end World War II.

It would be idiotic beyond belief to put this at risk just because of injured pride. A look at Vladimir Putin rubbing his hands in glee at the self-immolation of the EU should reinforce this point. How long does anyone think he would take to increase the pressure on the Baltic states or countries like Romania and Bulgaria to return to the ‘true’ fold?

The EU would have to realize that such a complete rupture would not be in its best interests. Free trade between the UK and the EU benefits both sides enormously. The ‘Brexiters’ in the UK will also soon find out that trade with the rest of the world without the EU behind it could be very difficult with all the new treaties that would have to be negotiated.

Most likely the cost of this trade relationship is the continued free movement of labor within the EU and the UK. Again, while the ‘Brexiters’ loudly condemned this free movement, it is very difficult to see how this free movement within the EU has hurt the UK. Quite the contrary, with the UK’s unemployment rate hovering around 5% it is clear this movement of labor has supported the UK’s growth.

In this new relationship, it is difficult to see the City of London retaining its pre-eminent position. Yes, London, even outside, the EU, offers much deeper financial services than any other place on the continent. But the EU may well insist as part of any deal that UK financial service firms can operate in the EU only if they are based in the EU. The only two EU cities that have any of the required financial infrastructure to handle such an influx of business are Dublin and Frankfurt.

In short, there is plenty of room for both sides to reach a compromise that does not threaten the geopolitical structure of Western Europe. But first, EU officials must recognize that the common perception of them as elitist, dogmatic, undemocratic technocrats out of touch with real citizens has led to this impasse. It is well past time for them to do a little soul-searching about their constant over-reach and intrusion into the life styles of member states.

It would also be nice if the ‘Brexiters’, for their part, recognized that no country has the absolute sovereignty they loudly proclaim. The world is simply too interconnected these days. A wrong word in London, Beijing, New York, Tokyo, or Berlin can have an instant economic and political impact. We will soon see if both sides are mature enough to step back from the abyss they have opened to reach a reasonable compromise.

          Then again, maybe nothing much has changed Britain's view of the European Union since the days of the famous comedy series Yes Minister.