A Long Way Around But We Finally Made It

After a circuitous two-day trip we finally managed to escape from the travesty that has befallen Boris Johnson’s Britain and land in Greece. This involved a flight to Geneva then a train trip to Zurich and finally, the following morning, a flight to Athens. Arriving in Geneva one is reminded of something that seems to have escaped the ‘New’ Britain – efficiency. We caught a train directly from the Geneva airport for a comfortable scenic ride directly to the Zurich airport. Train officials were mortified that the train was 6 minutes late. They shouldn’t have worried. This small taste of efficiency was very welcome. British officials, on the other hand, seem to have lost the ability to be mortified by anything, let alone mere train delays. A delay of only 6 minutes would be cause for celebration throughout the country. One more thing, the check-in queue at Swiss Air in Zurich very early on Friday morning was extremely long. But there were more than 20  check-in counters and they were all manned. Consequently the queue moved quickly. The same story at security. Every position was manned and it took less than 3 minutes to clear security despite the crowds.

            Because our trip had originated in the UK we were tested for Covid-19 at the Athens airport. We had previously given our trace-and-track details and were allowed to continue our journey even though the results wouldn’t be ready until the next day.  Had we tested positive – we didn’t – we would have been notified to self-isolate for two weeks. Seemed like a reasonable approach – especially when compared to the ham-handed approach in the UK where there was no attempt at testing (let alone tracking) and arriving passengers were simply told to quarantine for two weeks. Now, when the UK is finally modifying that policy many countries aren’t sure they want British tourists because of the virus spikes in the country.

Track and trace? Promised by June, now delayed indefinitely.

            British governments weren’t always this incompetent. But now there’s a prime minister who acts as though he would be much happier as the master of ceremonies at some pub’s karaoke night rather than lead a serious country. That’s hard work and requires real knowledge of major issues. Much easier to use one’s natural glibness and focus on simple, short crowd pleasing slogans like ‘Get Brexit Done.’

Much more fun than Prime Minister's Question Time

            Even though Britain is starting to re-open the country faces many more serious challenges like a treaty with the European Union and a trade agreement with the United States. Both of these are problematic. If this wasn’t enough they have to figure out how to pay for all billions of Pounds given to support companies and individuals during the worst of the virus.

            The deadline for the treaty stipulating relations with the European Union is December 31, 2020. Failure to agree a treaty by then would mean Britain leaving with ‘no deal’ which would result in total confusion and self-inflicted damage to the British economy. But, sadly, British negotiators seem to have adopted the ‘My-way-or-the-highway’ approach in these talks which were going to be difficult in the best of cases. This is fine if you have the upper hand which the UK most definitely does not. It needs friction-less trade with the EU far more than the EU needs an obstreperous, naively arrogant Britain.

            Unfortunately, Boris Johnson displays little interest in or knowledge of economics. Concerns of business and financial leaders worried about being cast adrift from the country’s largest and most important market interest him not at all. He loves the idea of so-called Global Britain able to form its own trade relations untethered to the cumbersome EU. In theory possible, but that requires the very diplomatic and bureaucratic skills scorned by the current government. It also requires management skills fatally lacking during the Covid-19 crisis.

            The government’s big hope is a trade deal with the United States. After all, Johnson and American president Donald Trump share a deep contempt of the European Union and a deep distrust of independent bureaucratic competence. 

Both of them believe sheer bluster can replace competence

But Johnson will soon discover that it is very hard for a small fish to negotiate equally with a whale. The only way the US would agree to such a trade deal is if Britain basically accepts everything the US wants – namely free access to the health care system and food markets.  This raises fears in many parts of the UK about soaring drug prices and lower food safety standards. Those fears may well be exaggerated but given their acceptance by a large part of the UK population they pose a real hurdle for Johnson. 

On a more practical note, there is absolutely no chance at all of any trade deal being completed before the US presidential election in November. If Joe Biden wins Johnson could face someone much more eager to work with the EU than with an ‘independent’ Britain. I suspect the priority of any trade deal with the UK would slide way down the long list of issues that any Biden administration would face. Johnson would quickly discover that the world is a very lonely place for medium sized countries not connected to any major economic bloc.