Time To Call Tayyip Erdoğan's Bluff

With his latest move to change one of Orthodox Christianity’s most powerful symbols from a museum into a mosque Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdoğan is once again demonstrating his complete contempt for international cooperation or opinion. He simply doesn’t care – at all. The only thing important to him is to maintain the unwavering support of his nationalist and fundamentalist Islamic base of support, a base that has shown signs of weakening in recent years.

Haghia Sophia before the Ottoman conquest

            To the world at large Erdoğan is Turkey. That is a serious mistake. His main damage over the years has been to obscure the complex, rich reality of Turkey – a complexity which he loathes. There are literally millions of hard working, well educated people in Turkey who reject his narrow, inward view of the world.  They want to engage with the rest of the world not retreat from it. Indeed in the last round of municipal elections they showed their strength when the opposition won almost all the major cities including Istanbul. These cities and surrounding areas  contain the bulk of Turkey’s population and the vast majority of the country’s economic activity. There are promising signs that the success in local elections could be carried to the national level. This is what Erdoğan really fears and why he has to work hard to maintain is base of support.

            Why is the status of Haghia Sophia so important? Constructed in the 6^th century AD by Byzantine Emperor Justinian it stood for almost 1,000 years as a powerful symbol of Christianity with its soaring dome and glittering mosaics. When the Ottoman Turks conquered Constantinople in 1453 one of their first acts was to convert this symbol into a mosque. It remained a mosque until 1934 when the Turkish republic’s first president Kemal Ataturk – determined to secularize and modernize the country – converted it into a museum. Thus it remained until today. Erdoğan and his fervent followers deeply resent Ataturk’s secularization drive and have tried over the years to weaken his hold on the Turkish public. The conversion of Haghia Sophia back into a mosque is simply their latest, boldest, step in trying to settle decades-old grievances against Ataturk’s legacy and the outside world – especially the perfidious West. It remains to be seen if their Islamic zeal will make them destroy the remnants of the original glorious 6^th century mosaics inside Haghia Sophia. After all, human representation in any artistic form is an anathema for Islamic fundamentalists.

Will these precious mosaics in Haghia Sophia be destroyed?

            Is there anything the rest of the world can do to make Erdoğan reverse this decision? In the short term, not really. Isolated in his bubble and surrounded by sycophants he is impervious to criticism – especially from Europe. This time is slightly different in that Orthodox Russia has also severely criticized the conversion. But the Russian condemnation quickly gets tangled in the delicate and complex web of Russian/Turkish relations and might not have much effect.

            But that doesn’t mean other countries and international organizations are completely impotent in this matter. Erdoğan is a very shrewd, clever villager who has little knowledge of or interest in the rest of the world. But up to now has played his international counterparts like a harp. They can flap their arms in despair at some of Erdoğan’s moves, express all the righteous indignation they want and he just laughs because he knows full well those are empty gestures. They won’t do anything. Turkey may be resource poor but it occupies what has been considered a critical piece of geography, literally spanning East and West. It is a member of NATO and played a key role during the Cold War. However, those ties are fraying and Turkey’s useful role is being questioned more and more. There are also strong elements in Turkey that want to get rid of all Western alliances and focus more on Eurasia – an area they feel is more politically and socially compatible with their 16th century vision for Turkey. Much of Turkey’s economic elite is horrified at such an Iranization of the country, but it’s not clear how much – if any – influence this elite has.

Erdogan in a familiar pose

            Erdoğan loves to stress that Turkey is a sovereign nation and can make its own decisions. True enough. But other nations are also sovereign and are perfectly free to make their own reactions to Erdoğan’s moves. Merely whining does no good at all. He feeds on that. It is time to get serious and call his bluff. He wants to change the status of historic monuments? Fine. But there must be consequences, regardless of any inconvenience. International cultural organizations could make Erdoğan’s Turkey a pariah and withdraw the country’s membership. Yes, there are countless valuable antiquities in Turkey. But if anyone thinks coddling Erdoğan is the way to preserve those he is kidding himself. He has shown an undying love of modern concrete over natural beauty or ancient sites – especially if they are Christian.

            What else could be done? Erdoğan is exposed in Syria. Yes, the Assad regime is an abomination but Orthodox Christians in Syria should be very afraid of the alternative of the fundamental Sunnis, the Al Qaeda offshoots supported by Erdoğan. The West together with Russia could put serious pressure on Assad to do a deal with the Kurds, who hate Erdoğan, and work for a loose federation that keeps Syria together while getting rid of the Turkish occupation of the north-western part of the country.

            Thanks to Erdoğan’s mismanagement the country’s economy has become quite fragile with an over-reliance on imports, dwindling foreign currency reserves, high unemployment and massive foreign currency debt obligations. Officials may be adept at managing these challenges in the short term but longer term the country will pay a high price.

            Ah, but the immigrants you say. Annoy him too much and he can unleash millions of immigrants – most of whom are not Syrian refugees -- into Europe. Yes and no. Several months ago Greece showed what could be done with a little resolve. Close the border. Bulgaria could do the same. Most civilized countries recoil at such measures. But it is up to Europe to set its own immigration terms and not permit Erdoğan to use these unfortunates as pawns to intimidate other countries.