Erdoǧan Proves - Again - That The Medium Really Is The Message

 

    Once again Turkish President Tayyip Erdoǧan has proved the accuracy of Canadian communications theorist Marshall McLuhan’s statement that ‘the medium is the message.’

     In the recent Turkish presidential election, the medium was Erdoǧan himself who succeeded in obscuring the real message that he is the one responsible for driving the country near economic collapse and creating wide social/political divisions. The winning margin was not huge, less than 5%, but demonstrated clearly that his dominating presence on the campaign trail, generous use of economic handouts, and domination of the media made all the difference. He succeeded in identifying himself with just enough of the struggling sectors of society and painting the opposition as gray men in gray suits who want to solve Turkey’s economic problems on the backs of the poor. ‘I’m one of you. My social/cultural values are the same as yours. I’m not some distant westernized elitist who treats you like merely like wooden, unfeeling pieces on a chess board.’

Winner and still champion

    Erdoǧan was clever in acknowledging the economic problems of the average citizen but then strained all credulity by adding he alone could solve them. It’s a bit like an arsonist saying he is the best person to put out a fire. He backed up these statements by supplying things like free natural gas, discounted electricity bills, and increased free internet usage for students. ‘Forget the actual situation. Look at me. I’m helping you. The other bunch just wants to take away everything you enjoy in the name of economic orthodoxy.’ The fact that such steps make a bad situation worse is conveniently ignored.

 The government’s abject failure on the deadly earthquake – from amnesties for substandard construction to slow emergency response – was obscured by promises of rapid re-construction. Whether such rapid re-construction actually happens is another question.

 Will Erdoǧan’s personal popularity withstand a further drop in the economy? There is already speculation that he will try to recall the former deputy prime minister Mehmet Şimșek to help run the economy. Şimșek used to work as a financial analyst in London and at least understands the rudiments of conventional economic management.  For his sake I hope he turns down the offer to return. It would be a no-win situation. If, by some miracle, the economy improves Erdoǧan would take all the credit. If Şimșek is forced to continue Erdoǧan’s unorthodox policies and the economy crashes he would take all the blame and quickly be forced out.

 Much of the western media is moaning about the ‘end of democracy’ in Turkey and the return to dictatorship. It’s not that simple. By most accounts the result of the election really does reflect the will of 52% of the people. We might not like the result, but it does no good to blame the voters or the alleged failure of democracy in Turkey. Erdoǧan may have bent most democratic norms almost out of shape with his patronage and bombast, but the superficial norms of democratic elections were maintained. Rigging the outcome began years before the actual election as the institutions of the state were moulded – legally -- in Erdoǧan’s favor. He recognized that the simple truth that the person who controls the process controls the outcome. The only surprising thing for me is that his victory margin was not larger.

 Therein lies hope for the future. The fact that nearly 48% of the voters saw through Erdoǧan’s charade is encouraging. Tayyip Erdoǧan deserves a victory lap because this victory was his and his alone. The message was nowhere near as popular as the medium. I doubt that anyone else in his party could have pulled this off. Just look at the municipal elections when Erdoǧan was not on the ballot. Almost all his surrogates in major cities lost. Even in this election the opposition won majorities in all the major cities except Bursa.

 It will be interesting to watch the political manoeuvring within the ruling AKP party as well as the opposition coalition. There is already speculation on post-Erdoǧan leadership of the AKP. Will Erdoǧan try to insert one of his sons-on-law or will the very ambitious minister of the interior Suleyman Soylu make a run for the top spot? I doubt very much that any of these replacements can equal the sheer political magnetism of Tayyip Erdoǧan.

Is Ekrem Imamoǧlu a credible challenger?

 What about the opposition? Will the coalition hold together or will the charismatic mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoǧlu, make a run for leadership? He clearly outshone the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu during the campaign, but he was a good soldier and worked hard for Kılıçdaroǧlu. Turkish politics is a very rough sport and I hesitate to make any predictions. Nothing creates enemies faster than an early claim to leadership. There is very little that Erdoǧan would not do if he sees Imamoǧlu as a serious threat to his own plans.

 There will be many candidates claiming to be the only ones able to repair Turkey’s economy and torn social fabric. For outsiders it will be fascinating spectator sport. For frustrated, disheartened people inside Turkey it will be far more serious.

Turks Got Their Strong Leader. But Where Will He Lead Them?

    A good friend from Istanbul succinctly summed up his feelings about the recent election results. ‘Welcome to Venezuela without the oil.’

  Turkish President Tayyip Erdoǧan is on track to defeat his opponent Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu fairly easily in the second round of the Turkish elections If he does indeed win there will be much gnashing of teeth in the large urban areas of Istanbul and in the Western media. How could this happen? How could this nightmare come again and again? There must have been massive fraud.

     Unfortunately, not. He didn’t need to resort to much fraud for several reasons. When you control all the security services, the judiciary and almost all the media you make sure yours is the only narrative that gets heard by people every day and night. The message that all of Turkey’s well-documented problems can be blamed on others, particularly foreigners, is pounded home again and again. Instead of being the problem you become the only solution.

    

What will he do with his latest victory?

        Turks abroad, especially in Germany with its 1.5 million Turkish voters, were fed a daily diet rich in resentment and alienation where many Turkish workers were portrayed as second-class citizens.  The sub-text was simple. Only AKP can restore your sense of pride and welfare in this place where most people regard you merely as something they scrape off their shoes. The reality that the vast majority of Turks and other immigrants in Germany are usually treated well is glossed over.

             Underneath these messages lies another reality. Over the years AKP has built a formidable political organization capable of turning out the vote. AKP apparatchiks are very good at the nuts and bolts of successful politics. Voters can shrug off the deafening rants filled with lies and distortions if the local AKP official can help them slog through the bureaucratic quagmire that plagues everyone’s life. None of this work is glamorous but it is the glue that binds voters to leaders.

While it’s obvious that overall economic conditions have deteriorated, much of the blame has been shifted to vague, impersonal – often described malignant foreign – forces beyond any reasonable person’s control. Abstract issues like independent judiciary and human rights that resonate so loudly in European and American media count for very little against the quality of local services.

Nice guy, but still in second place

             It also helped that Erdoǧan is a much more seasoned, charismatic campaigner than any of his opponents to date. He is very skilful at doling out patronage while blaring a simplistic, distorted message to voters. Essentially, he is telling them that he is their only hope against the forces of atheism, foreign intrigue, pernicious liberal influences and others who would deny Turkey its justified place at the High Table of powerful nations. The reality that his policies have driven the country into bankruptcy is conveniently swept under the rhetorical onslaught of populism and nationalism. The fact that he has turned an old saying, a Turk has no friends but a Turk, into a reality is presented as a matter of pride, a badge of honour. Us vs. Them!! Turkey vs. the World!! Against this tsunami of conspiracy theories, pride, and lavish handouts the country can’t afford it would take someone much more charismatic than the mild-mannered Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu to survive.

     One knowledgeable friend said the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoǧlu, would have been a much stronger candidate. But then, she added, ‘Erdoǧan would have cut him off at the knees once he became a real threat.’

             So what happens now? Given the victory of populism and intense nationalism the country will undoubtedly slide further from the West whose liberal ideals are not welcome in Erdoǧan’s Turkey. But it is not clear where it will slide to. The country has no natural allies (Azerbaijan, maybe) and its relationship with Putin’s Russia is purely transactional. The Arabs? How much are they really willing to help Turkey besides buying up valuable assets?  The security services will be strengthened and any sign of dissent will be ruthlessly stamped out. Unfortunates like Selahattin Demirtaş (leader of the Kurdish HDP party)  and Osman Kavala (a philanthropist  thrown in jail on some vague charge related to the Gezi Park protests in 2013) will probably remain behind bars. The country’s economy will continue to sink with yawning budget deficits and a rapidly depreciating currency. The Central Bank is beyond broke. I would not be at all surprised to see some sort of currency controls, however disguised, to slow the depreciation of the Turkish Lira. Such controls will be sold to the people as an act of economic nationalism. ‘Let’s free Turkey from the evils of foreign influence.’  

     Erdoǧan may occasionally sound bellicose on the international front, but in reality there’s not much he can do. Foreign military adventures cost a great deal of money, which he doesn’t have. Media barons will breathe a sigh of relief at their continued financial well-being and continue to fill the airways and papers with pro-Erdoǧan propaganda. Why bother with anything resembling real news when that pays so well?

       I am reminded of what British Prime Minister William Pitt the younger said when he learned of Napoleon’s crushing victory against the Russians and Austrians at Austerlitz in 1805. ‘Roll up that map of Europe. It will not be needed these 10 years.’ The same sense of sadness and weary resignation permeates people who had hoped for a change in Turkey. It will take time, but sooner or later a strong alternative to Erdoǧan will emerge.