Turks Got Their Strong Leader. But Where Will He Lead Them?

    A good friend from Istanbul succinctly summed up his feelings about the recent election results. ‘Welcome to Venezuela without the oil.’

  Turkish President Tayyip Erdoǧan is on track to defeat his opponent Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu fairly easily in the second round of the Turkish elections If he does indeed win there will be much gnashing of teeth in the large urban areas of Istanbul and in the Western media. How could this happen? How could this nightmare come again and again? There must have been massive fraud.

     Unfortunately, not. He didn’t need to resort to much fraud for several reasons. When you control all the security services, the judiciary and almost all the media you make sure yours is the only narrative that gets heard by people every day and night. The message that all of Turkey’s well-documented problems can be blamed on others, particularly foreigners, is pounded home again and again. Instead of being the problem you become the only solution.

    

What will he do with his latest victory?

        Turks abroad, especially in Germany with its 1.5 million Turkish voters, were fed a daily diet rich in resentment and alienation where many Turkish workers were portrayed as second-class citizens.  The sub-text was simple. Only AKP can restore your sense of pride and welfare in this place where most people regard you merely as something they scrape off their shoes. The reality that the vast majority of Turks and other immigrants in Germany are usually treated well is glossed over.

             Underneath these messages lies another reality. Over the years AKP has built a formidable political organization capable of turning out the vote. AKP apparatchiks are very good at the nuts and bolts of successful politics. Voters can shrug off the deafening rants filled with lies and distortions if the local AKP official can help them slog through the bureaucratic quagmire that plagues everyone’s life. None of this work is glamorous but it is the glue that binds voters to leaders.

While it’s obvious that overall economic conditions have deteriorated, much of the blame has been shifted to vague, impersonal – often described malignant foreign – forces beyond any reasonable person’s control. Abstract issues like independent judiciary and human rights that resonate so loudly in European and American media count for very little against the quality of local services.

Nice guy, but still in second place

             It also helped that Erdoǧan is a much more seasoned, charismatic campaigner than any of his opponents to date. He is very skilful at doling out patronage while blaring a simplistic, distorted message to voters. Essentially, he is telling them that he is their only hope against the forces of atheism, foreign intrigue, pernicious liberal influences and others who would deny Turkey its justified place at the High Table of powerful nations. The reality that his policies have driven the country into bankruptcy is conveniently swept under the rhetorical onslaught of populism and nationalism. The fact that he has turned an old saying, a Turk has no friends but a Turk, into a reality is presented as a matter of pride, a badge of honour. Us vs. Them!! Turkey vs. the World!! Against this tsunami of conspiracy theories, pride, and lavish handouts the country can’t afford it would take someone much more charismatic than the mild-mannered Kemal Kılıçdaroǧlu to survive.

     One knowledgeable friend said the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoǧlu, would have been a much stronger candidate. But then, she added, ‘Erdoǧan would have cut him off at the knees once he became a real threat.’

             So what happens now? Given the victory of populism and intense nationalism the country will undoubtedly slide further from the West whose liberal ideals are not welcome in Erdoǧan’s Turkey. But it is not clear where it will slide to. The country has no natural allies (Azerbaijan, maybe) and its relationship with Putin’s Russia is purely transactional. The Arabs? How much are they really willing to help Turkey besides buying up valuable assets?  The security services will be strengthened and any sign of dissent will be ruthlessly stamped out. Unfortunates like Selahattin Demirtaş (leader of the Kurdish HDP party)  and Osman Kavala (a philanthropist  thrown in jail on some vague charge related to the Gezi Park protests in 2013) will probably remain behind bars. The country’s economy will continue to sink with yawning budget deficits and a rapidly depreciating currency. The Central Bank is beyond broke. I would not be at all surprised to see some sort of currency controls, however disguised, to slow the depreciation of the Turkish Lira. Such controls will be sold to the people as an act of economic nationalism. ‘Let’s free Turkey from the evils of foreign influence.’  

     Erdoǧan may occasionally sound bellicose on the international front, but in reality there’s not much he can do. Foreign military adventures cost a great deal of money, which he doesn’t have. Media barons will breathe a sigh of relief at their continued financial well-being and continue to fill the airways and papers with pro-Erdoǧan propaganda. Why bother with anything resembling real news when that pays so well?

       I am reminded of what British Prime Minister William Pitt the younger said when he learned of Napoleon’s crushing victory against the Russians and Austrians at Austerlitz in 1805. ‘Roll up that map of Europe. It will not be needed these 10 years.’ The same sense of sadness and weary resignation permeates people who had hoped for a change in Turkey. It will take time, but sooner or later a strong alternative to Erdoǧan will emerge.