The
only comparison I can make with the current inane Brexit discussions going on
in Britain is the final scene from the 1991 classic Ridley Scott film Thelma & Louise where the two women happily
run their convertible car at high speed off a cliff. In the current Brexit remake
of that film we have fervent Brexiteers Boris Johnson – the man who will do
anything to be prime minister – and his boon companion Jacob Rees-Mogg putting
the pedal to the metal and hurtling Britain off the cliff and back into what
they presume to be the glorious past of Rule
Britannia.
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| Is this all he's promising? |
Alas,
a more likely outcome is to crash loudly on the rocks of reality at the bottom
of the cliff. The truly discouraging point is that no one – not the government
and certainly not the opposition Labour Party – has clue what will happen in
six short months when whatever ‘deal’ is agreed is supposed to go into effect.
The alternatives range from A -- as in Absurd
– to Z – as in Zilch.
A
major sticking point at the moment seems to be what do with the border between
Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a member in good
standing of the EU. Will there be a ‘hard’ border with customs duties, etc. or
a ‘soft’ border more or less replicating the ease of trade between the two
parts of Ireland that exists today. The obvious answer – an answer regarded as
the third rail in British politics – is the unification of Ireland. But, given
the realities of the deep religious divide within Northern Ireland, that option
looks Dead on Arrival at the moment.
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| Is this old border post in Ireland going to get re-opened? |
Somewhere
along the way, lost in all the raucous debate and fevered posturing, is the seemingly
simple question of how the quality of real daily life for the average Brit will
be affected by a rupture with the European Union. Without offering anything
more than mere speculation the Brexiteers assure us that we are headed for the
sunny uplands of a rejuvenated Britain freed from the snares of those wily
foreigners.
They
are a little light on explaining exactly what those sunny uplands will look
like. What will replace the ease of trade and travel we now enjoy throughout
the European Union? Trade that, among other things, keeps our supermarkets full
and prices relatively low. It is important to remember just how much Britain
relies of huge volumes of trade each and every day with the EU just to feed
itself. Next time you go to the supermarket take a look at the country of
origin of what you buy. Then ask yourself what would happen to those products once
trade barriers and customs duties are imposed. It’s not a pretty picture.
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| How many of those trolleys are filled with EU products? |
What
about travel? Now we enjoy seamless travel throughout the EU. Go through
passport controls quickly, enjoy the right of residence, and – very important –
have access to health care through reciprocal arrangements between the NHS and
other public health providers with the European Health Insurance Card. What is
going to replace this convenience and peace of mind? More important is the right
that all UK businesses – services and manufacturing – have to operate
anywhere in the EU.
Ah,
the Brexiteers say, those agreements can be replicated with a fresh new set of
treaties when we are free from EU shackles. Right. And exactly who is going to
negotiate those treaties? And, given that the much-touted trade model between
Canada and the EU took seven years to negotiate, it could be a long, dry trip
to those sunny uplands. Furthermore, that Canadian model does not begin to
cover the extent of the existing trade between the EU and Britain.
But
our sovereignty, the Brexiteers cry out. We will regain our sovereignty. What
does that mean, precisely? Exactly how much is the daily life of the average
Briton affected by this alleged lack of sovereignty. Does the Queen still sit on
her throne? Do local councils continue to exist? Does parliament still exist? I
admit this is a dubious point, but at least the building still exists. Do
British courts still rule? European courts have some jurisdiction, but hardly
total. Is not the Bank of England still free to implement whatever policy it
wants? Is sterling not the legal tender throughout the UK?
The
argument that Brexiteers fall back on when all else fails is ‘control of our
borders.’ Again, this begs clarification. To a very large extent Britain
already does control its borders. The fact that it has such difficulty in doing
so is not the fault of the EU. But more to the point, official statistics show Britain is hardly flooded with EU immigrants. For example, for the year ended in March
2018 there were 226,000 immigrants from the EU (most of which were from the
original EU countries) and 138,00 emigrants, i.e. a net immigration of 88,000. You can lose that many people in Harrod’s
in any given day. So, what exactly is the problem that leaving the EU will
solve?
The
vast majority of immigrants in that time period came from non-EU countries, countries
over which Britain has complete border control. There were 316,000 non-EU
immigrants for that year, and the vast majority of those – 202,000 – came from
Asia. It is worth noting that only 81,000 of the non-EU immigrants left Britain
in that year, leaving a total immigration far outstripping those who came from
within the EU.
It
is well past the time to shed the hyperbolic rhetoric of the Brexiteers and
focus instead on exactly how a rupture from the European Union is going to
benefit – or hurt -- the daily lives of the proverbial man-in-the street.
Messrs.
Johnson and Rees-Mogg have us headed at high speed straight off the cliff edge
with absolutely no clarity on what we face in their brave new world. Is this a
gamble the British people really want to take?
