I recently
attended a briefing in London from a former senior Turkish official during
which he, probably unintentionally, highlighted many of the contradictions in
modern Turkey. The country is truly the poster child of the ‘on the one hand
and on the other hand’ conundrum that drives its friends and enemies to distraction.
With its location
in the middle of some of the world’s most sensitive areas, its military
strength, growing defence industry, strong private sector companies and geo-political
outreach Turkey should sit at the top table of global/regional powers with a
key role to play.
It is a large
country with a population of more than 80 million. It has close ties with the
EU, the Balkans, Russia, Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East, and,
increasingly, Africa. Turkey has more diplomatic missions than all countries
except the US and China. It can play a critical role in rebuilding Syria and
possibly in Gaza. In Africa alone the number of Turkish diplomatic missions has
increased from 12 in 2002 to 44 today.
Turkish Airlines
flies to 350 global destinations in 130 countries. Turkish companies have
invested billions of dollars in several countries around the world including
Egypt, the US, and many EU countries. I wonder how many customers in the UK
realize that the popular white-goods company Beko is actually a brand of
Arçelik that itself is part of the enormous Koç group of companies. The Turkish
army is the second largest in NATO and its defence industry exports are growing
rapidly to more than $8 billion this year. Many EU countries as well as the UK
want Turkey to be a key component of the emerging European defence architecture.
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| Europe would love to have this force join its defence |
Despite these
impressive figures and brute power, Turkey’s long-term quest to be considered a
major international player is bogged down in the domestic quagmire of its own
making. Rule of law with a truly independent judiciary, transparency and real
democracy remain a mirage in the wasteland of one-man rule, crony-capitalism
and widespread corruption. President Tayyip Erdoǧan has been in power for more
than 20 years, and, despite articles in his own party’s founding document and
the national constitution prohibiting another term, he seeks to circumvent
these prohibitions by relying on friendly courts and a compliant parliament to
simply change the law.
The Turkish people
understand real democracy very well, and hundreds of thousands of them have protested
all over the country against the arbitrary arrest and detention of Erdoǧan’s
main political opponent, the popular mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoǧlu, on what
appear to be ludicrous charges including corruption and espionage. It’s a miracle
that the carefully chosen prosecutors could even mention Imamoǧlu’s alleged corruption
without deeply blushing. But the ordinary people face at least two major
challenges in their efforts to change Turkey’s domestic situation.
Erdoǧan is a strong
campaigner with almost total control of the media and is a master of cynical
political manipulation. Another major obstacle is that in his long time in
power he has helped certain favoured business groups amass immense fortunes
that could disappear quickly if the opposition were by some miracle to win the
presidency. These groups will support Erdoǧan with everything they have because
they recognize that without the protection of his charisma and power their
economic well-being could shatter.
The Kurds are
another possible, unexpected source of support for Erdoǧan. The much-vaunted peace
process with the violent guerrilla group PKK is well underway and there is even
talk of releasing the head of the Kurdish political party from his long
imprisonment. Erdoǧan could easily condition concessions on Kurdish rights and
the release of Selahattin Demirtaș on support from the Kurdish party for his claim
to another term as president. Demirtaș has been in prison for eight years and
it could be very difficult for him to turn down the offer of release even if it
were part of a distasteful deal.
One issue that
could cause serious problems for Erdoǧan is the sorry state of an economy
burdened with high inflation and high interest rates. Ordinary people and many
companies are suffering as prices continue to rise, and high interest rates
make loans – even if you can get them – very expensive for most people. Nominal
interest rates are about 40% and many people believe the currency is highly
overvalued. In addition to making Turkey a very expensive tourist destination
this dangerous combination of high inflation/constantly increasing prices and
overvalued currency puts a real squeeze on Turkey’s large export sector.
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| The people are angered by increasing food prices |
Many people had once
hoped that external pressure from the EU would help improve conditions in
Turkey as the country struggled to meet the EU entry criteria. But when that
application door was slammed shut several years ago Erdoǧan was relieved of any
pressure to change his autocratic rule. Now, the radically changed European and
Middle Eastern security calculus has eased any external pressure on Turkey’s
domestic policies. Many EU members and the UK seem perfectly willing to put up
with Turkey’s democratic and judicial shortcomings in the rush to have Turkey
join the new defence architecture. And the United States, especially under
Trump, has always placed Turkey’s geopolitical role in an unstable region over
any concern for the country’s internal affairs.
The Turkish
people, like people in most countries, don’t respond well to pressure from the
outside telling them how to behave. Any lasting change in Turkey will have to
come from within. And it remains to be seen if the political opposition is
clever enough to overcome its internal feuding and mobilize the general popular
discontent to overcome Erdoǧan’s built-in advantage of controlling all the
levers of power.
