Time To Call Tayyip Erdoğan's Bluff

With his latest move to change one of Orthodox Christianity’s most powerful symbols from a museum into a mosque Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdoğan is once again demonstrating his complete contempt for international cooperation or opinion. He simply doesn’t care – at all. The only thing important to him is to maintain the unwavering support of his nationalist and fundamentalist Islamic base of support, a base that has shown signs of weakening in recent years.

Haghia Sophia before the Ottoman conquest

            To the world at large Erdoğan is Turkey. That is a serious mistake. His main damage over the years has been to obscure the complex, rich reality of Turkey – a complexity which he loathes. There are literally millions of hard working, well educated people in Turkey who reject his narrow, inward view of the world.  They want to engage with the rest of the world not retreat from it. Indeed in the last round of municipal elections they showed their strength when the opposition won almost all the major cities including Istanbul. These cities and surrounding areas  contain the bulk of Turkey’s population and the vast majority of the country’s economic activity. There are promising signs that the success in local elections could be carried to the national level. This is what Erdoğan really fears and why he has to work hard to maintain is base of support.

            Why is the status of Haghia Sophia so important? Constructed in the 6^th century AD by Byzantine Emperor Justinian it stood for almost 1,000 years as a powerful symbol of Christianity with its soaring dome and glittering mosaics. When the Ottoman Turks conquered Constantinople in 1453 one of their first acts was to convert this symbol into a mosque. It remained a mosque until 1934 when the Turkish republic’s first president Kemal Ataturk – determined to secularize and modernize the country – converted it into a museum. Thus it remained until today. Erdoğan and his fervent followers deeply resent Ataturk’s secularization drive and have tried over the years to weaken his hold on the Turkish public. The conversion of Haghia Sophia back into a mosque is simply their latest, boldest, step in trying to settle decades-old grievances against Ataturk’s legacy and the outside world – especially the perfidious West. It remains to be seen if their Islamic zeal will make them destroy the remnants of the original glorious 6^th century mosaics inside Haghia Sophia. After all, human representation in any artistic form is an anathema for Islamic fundamentalists.

Will these precious mosaics in Haghia Sophia be destroyed?

            Is there anything the rest of the world can do to make Erdoğan reverse this decision? In the short term, not really. Isolated in his bubble and surrounded by sycophants he is impervious to criticism – especially from Europe. This time is slightly different in that Orthodox Russia has also severely criticized the conversion. But the Russian condemnation quickly gets tangled in the delicate and complex web of Russian/Turkish relations and might not have much effect.

            But that doesn’t mean other countries and international organizations are completely impotent in this matter. Erdoğan is a very shrewd, clever villager who has little knowledge of or interest in the rest of the world. But up to now has played his international counterparts like a harp. They can flap their arms in despair at some of Erdoğan’s moves, express all the righteous indignation they want and he just laughs because he knows full well those are empty gestures. They won’t do anything. Turkey may be resource poor but it occupies what has been considered a critical piece of geography, literally spanning East and West. It is a member of NATO and played a key role during the Cold War. However, those ties are fraying and Turkey’s useful role is being questioned more and more. There are also strong elements in Turkey that want to get rid of all Western alliances and focus more on Eurasia – an area they feel is more politically and socially compatible with their 16th century vision for Turkey. Much of Turkey’s economic elite is horrified at such an Iranization of the country, but it’s not clear how much – if any – influence this elite has.

Erdogan in a familiar pose

            Erdoğan loves to stress that Turkey is a sovereign nation and can make its own decisions. True enough. But other nations are also sovereign and are perfectly free to make their own reactions to Erdoğan’s moves. Merely whining does no good at all. He feeds on that. It is time to get serious and call his bluff. He wants to change the status of historic monuments? Fine. But there must be consequences, regardless of any inconvenience. International cultural organizations could make Erdoğan’s Turkey a pariah and withdraw the country’s membership. Yes, there are countless valuable antiquities in Turkey. But if anyone thinks coddling Erdoğan is the way to preserve those he is kidding himself. He has shown an undying love of modern concrete over natural beauty or ancient sites – especially if they are Christian.

            What else could be done? Erdoğan is exposed in Syria. Yes, the Assad regime is an abomination but Orthodox Christians in Syria should be very afraid of the alternative of the fundamental Sunnis, the Al Qaeda offshoots supported by Erdoğan. The West together with Russia could put serious pressure on Assad to do a deal with the Kurds, who hate Erdoğan, and work for a loose federation that keeps Syria together while getting rid of the Turkish occupation of the north-western part of the country.

            Thanks to Erdoğan’s mismanagement the country’s economy has become quite fragile with an over-reliance on imports, dwindling foreign currency reserves, high unemployment and massive foreign currency debt obligations. Officials may be adept at managing these challenges in the short term but longer term the country will pay a high price.

            Ah, but the immigrants you say. Annoy him too much and he can unleash millions of immigrants – most of whom are not Syrian refugees -- into Europe. Yes and no. Several months ago Greece showed what could be done with a little resolve. Close the border. Bulgaria could do the same. Most civilized countries recoil at such measures. But it is up to Europe to set its own immigration terms and not permit Erdoğan to use these unfortunates as pawns to intimidate other countries.

A Long Way Around But We Finally Made It

After a circuitous two-day trip we finally managed to escape from the travesty that has befallen Boris Johnson’s Britain and land in Greece. This involved a flight to Geneva then a train trip to Zurich and finally, the following morning, a flight to Athens. Arriving in Geneva one is reminded of something that seems to have escaped the ‘New’ Britain – efficiency. We caught a train directly from the Geneva airport for a comfortable scenic ride directly to the Zurich airport. Train officials were mortified that the train was 6 minutes late. They shouldn’t have worried. This small taste of efficiency was very welcome. British officials, on the other hand, seem to have lost the ability to be mortified by anything, let alone mere train delays. A delay of only 6 minutes would be cause for celebration throughout the country. One more thing, the check-in queue at Swiss Air in Zurich very early on Friday morning was extremely long. But there were more than 20  check-in counters and they were all manned. Consequently the queue moved quickly. The same story at security. Every position was manned and it took less than 3 minutes to clear security despite the crowds.

            Because our trip had originated in the UK we were tested for Covid-19 at the Athens airport. We had previously given our trace-and-track details and were allowed to continue our journey even though the results wouldn’t be ready until the next day.  Had we tested positive – we didn’t – we would have been notified to self-isolate for two weeks. Seemed like a reasonable approach – especially when compared to the ham-handed approach in the UK where there was no attempt at testing (let alone tracking) and arriving passengers were simply told to quarantine for two weeks. Now, when the UK is finally modifying that policy many countries aren’t sure they want British tourists because of the virus spikes in the country.

Track and trace? Promised by June, now delayed indefinitely.

            British governments weren’t always this incompetent. But now there’s a prime minister who acts as though he would be much happier as the master of ceremonies at some pub’s karaoke night rather than lead a serious country. That’s hard work and requires real knowledge of major issues. Much easier to use one’s natural glibness and focus on simple, short crowd pleasing slogans like ‘Get Brexit Done.’

Much more fun than Prime Minister's Question Time

            Even though Britain is starting to re-open the country faces many more serious challenges like a treaty with the European Union and a trade agreement with the United States. Both of these are problematic. If this wasn’t enough they have to figure out how to pay for all billions of Pounds given to support companies and individuals during the worst of the virus.

            The deadline for the treaty stipulating relations with the European Union is December 31, 2020. Failure to agree a treaty by then would mean Britain leaving with ‘no deal’ which would result in total confusion and self-inflicted damage to the British economy. But, sadly, British negotiators seem to have adopted the ‘My-way-or-the-highway’ approach in these talks which were going to be difficult in the best of cases. This is fine if you have the upper hand which the UK most definitely does not. It needs friction-less trade with the EU far more than the EU needs an obstreperous, naively arrogant Britain.

            Unfortunately, Boris Johnson displays little interest in or knowledge of economics. Concerns of business and financial leaders worried about being cast adrift from the country’s largest and most important market interest him not at all. He loves the idea of so-called Global Britain able to form its own trade relations untethered to the cumbersome EU. In theory possible, but that requires the very diplomatic and bureaucratic skills scorned by the current government. It also requires management skills fatally lacking during the Covid-19 crisis.

            The government’s big hope is a trade deal with the United States. After all, Johnson and American president Donald Trump share a deep contempt of the European Union and a deep distrust of independent bureaucratic competence. 

Both of them believe sheer bluster can replace competence

But Johnson will soon discover that it is very hard for a small fish to negotiate equally with a whale. The only way the US would agree to such a trade deal is if Britain basically accepts everything the US wants – namely free access to the health care system and food markets.  This raises fears in many parts of the UK about soaring drug prices and lower food safety standards. Those fears may well be exaggerated but given their acceptance by a large part of the UK population they pose a real hurdle for Johnson. 

On a more practical note, there is absolutely no chance at all of any trade deal being completed before the US presidential election in November. If Joe Biden wins Johnson could face someone much more eager to work with the EU than with an ‘independent’ Britain. I suspect the priority of any trade deal with the UK would slide way down the long list of issues that any Biden administration would face. Johnson would quickly discover that the world is a very lonely place for medium sized countries not connected to any major economic bloc.