Who Is Erdoğan Trying To Kid?

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan’s desperation is showing. Faced with the prospect of possibly losing the all-important referendum next month he has incited diplomatic spats with Holland and Germany – each of them home to millions of expatriate Turks.

The proximate cause of his anger – real or feigned – is the refusal of those countries to be drawn into Turkish domestic political fights. Those two countries took the entirely reasonable position that letting Turkish ministers host election rallies in Holland or Germany would amount an unwelcome intrusion of violent Turkish politics into their own more normal political system.

He is in a position to lecture anyone on freedom??

Why, they asked, should they condone Erdoğan’s  undemocratic, repressive version of politics by letting his ministers practice those traits in Germany or Holland? Not an unreasonable question. Furthermore, the Dutch have a critical election this week. Why did Erdoğan even think they would allow any outside intrusion at this point – let alone the rabble rousers from Turkey?

But focusing only on Erdoğan’s obvious insensitivity and hypocrisy is to miss the point. He simply doesn’t care about European criticism of his moves. In fact, he loves it because it feeds the popular domestic narrative of those nasty Europeans with their so-called emphasis on human rights trying to keep Turkey down in the second division. It is important to realize that his complaints about Holland and Germany are nothing but a smokescreen enabling him to push the always-reliable button of Turkish nationalism.

The only thing that matters to him at this point is getting enough votes in the referendum on proposed changes to the Turkish constitution giving him unchecked powers. There are some cautious comments in the Turkish press that this might not be as easy as he had hoped. There is some serious resistance to the idea of ending Turkey’s parliamentary system of government in favor of what amounts to one-man rule. It’s one thing to vote for AKP, it’s quite another to give one man – Tayyip Erdoğan – absolute power. Therefore Erdoğan has to do everything he can to whip up the Turkish booboisie – to steal a term from H.L.Mencken – into such a nationalist fervor that they rush to support their leader.

To that end he has manufactured inflammatory actions like calling Germany and Holland modern day versions of the Nazis, insisted on having his ministers travel to those countries and then get photographed as they are refused entry, yelping about double standards on human rights and freedom of speech, etc., etc. It takes a great deal of energy to do all this with a straight face, especially when so many journalists and opposition politicians are languishing behind bars in Turkey. Again, I cannot emphasize enough that he just doesn’t care about this very, very bad joke or the reality of the situation – assuming he knows it. Very few of his supporters have access to, or ability to understand any of the critical foreign comment. All they hear is his side of the story – blazoned across his in-house newspapers or broadcast loudly on supine TV stations.

Dutch riot police outside the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam

Turkish televisions are now filled with dramatic shots of protests outside the Dutch consulate in Istanbul -- located on the city’s main shopping street – or scuffles in Holland outside the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam. To outsiders, Erdoğan and his puppet ministers look comical and ridiculous as they struggle to climb onto the high road in this intensifying debate about standards of freedom in each country. They should be embarrassed by their pretensions, but they have long since lost the ability to be embarrassed by anything in Turkish politics. If the massive corruption scandals a few years and brutal repression against protesters didn’t cause any embarrassment, then it’s naïve to think that something like a loud argument with a foreign country would cause any embarrassment. Quite the contrary. Remember the old Turkish saying, A Turk Has No Friends But A Turk.

Turkey has sealed off the Dutch embassy for 'security' reasons

Will this tactic be enough to swing the election his way? Difficult to say. Turkish polls are notoriously inaccurate, but various commentators report some unease in the Erdoğan camp about the outcome of the referendum. This unease apparently extends not just to the usual political opposition but also could include some members of the ruling Justice and Development Party itself who like the parliamentary system. Unlike the general elections, this is a straight Yes or No vote where the winner has to get at least 50% of the votes cast. Given the possibility of vote fiddling, many people in the No camp believe they have to get well over 50% to get the outcome they want.

The only certain thing is more sharp election maneuvring by the Erdoğan camp between now and the referendum on April 16. Will  this be a sign of desperation, or just politics as usual? Very difficult to say.

Turkey Illustrates The Real Risk Of Emerging Markets

The current political turmoil in Turkey illustrates with startling clarity the real risk in the so-called Emerging Markets.  Commonly used economic indicators such as GDP growth, debt, deficits, corporate profits, etc. tell only part – the superficial part -- of the story.

            Much more important for anyone seduced by the theoretical growth potential of these markets are issues like the underlying political stability, existence of ‘crony’ capitalism, competence of government institutions, level of systemic corruption, and -- most important of all – respect for the rule of law.

            A brilliant young Turkish financial analyst, who needs to remain anonymous given the poisonous climate in Turkey, emphasized this contradiction in a recent email about Turkey and cautioned against a headlong rush into emerging markets in general.

“The key issue is to understand that a growing population, rich natural resources, or a large manufacturing (assembly) base do not in themselves make a good long term story. In fact, three common denominators of emerging markets are lack of the ‘rule of law’, an economic system of ‘crony capitalism’, and a poor education system. These, in turn, create a system of constant corruption and regular boom/bust cycles. In emerging markets corruption is the grease that turns the wheels of the economic system – where politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen benefit at the expense of productivity and innovation. This system is usually supported by a political system that plays on social/political divisions along different ethnic, religious or political lines.”

            Turkey, thanks mainly to the work of former economic minister Ali Babacan, doesn’t score too badly on the raw numbers. Unfortunately, the country scores at or near the bottom of any league table on the second set of issues – the ones that can really make or break any investment. President Tayyip Erdoğan has gone out of his way to show that he recognizes no constitution and no law except the law of sheer power.

            The dramatic events yesterday that saw the dismissal of the prime minister only confirm this trend. It is well known that Erdoğan does not tolerate any dissent from his narrow, parochial world view – particularly his ambition to transform the office of president into an untouchable, unaccountable power center. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was seen as the softer, more reasonable side of Turkey’s unequal power balance. Despite his frequent avowals of undying loyalty, he apparently infuriated the president with his lack of enthusiasm for several issues key to Erdoğan’s megalomania: 1) the change to an unchecked presidential system, 2) his reluctance to throw people in jail before a trial, and 3) his willingness to use professionals like Babacan as economic advisers rather than rely on the sycophants who surround Erdoğan.

            In some ways Davutoğlu was the architect of his own downfall. His deeply flawed foreign policy only succeeded in completely isolating Turkey. Arab countries don’t really trust Turkey, Russia openly loathes and mocks Erdoğan, and the Europeans would really like to keep Turkey in some sort of ante-room to be seen and not heard. The Americans look on in despair at the rapid polarisation in Turkey and the deterioration of the country’s political discourse. But then they grit their teeth and think of Turkey’s geopolitical importance. Perhaps Davutoğlu’s main foreign policy problem as far as Erdoğan is concerned was to be perceived as mildly pro-Western. Erdoğan despises the West. He reacts furiously when Western politicians, journalists, NGOs, etc. scold him for his miserable record on human rights, press freedom, or judicial independence. His only response is loud bravado that ‘Turkey was great once and will be great again’.

            The name of the non-entity who takes over as prime minister is completely irrelevant because his only job will be to enact whatever Erdoğan wants. Cabinet meetings will have the same vibrant discussion, bright ideas, and independent thought as Stalin’s politburo meetings.

The only sliver of good news is that Erdoğan’s Turkey has absolutely no ability to project power beyond its own borders. Erdoğan would love to act like Putin throwing his weight around. But he can’t. He is hemmed in on all sides – if not militarily then politically. The Turkish army is large, but so far has shown no interest at all in moving one meter beyond its borders. From time to time the Air Force chases Kurdish guerrillas into northern Iraq and makes the boulders bounce with a few bombs, but that’s about it.

In the long run Erdoğan will fail because he is making the same major mistake as his arch-enemy the old Kemalist regime that ruled the Republic with an iron hand for more than 70 years. By alienating a large part of the population the Kemalist regime created fertile recruiting ground for Erdoğan. Erdoğan, too, is alienating a large part of the population. He is trying to force all Turks into his narrow mold of what he thinks a Turk should be. The trouble is, Turks don’t do ‘should’. The country is too diverse, too heterogeneous to fit into anyone’s mold. Erdoğan’s mold, like that of the Kemalist regime’s, will one day break. The only question is ‘How long is the long run?’

Turkey Looks OK . . . By Comparison

During the media storm surrounding Greece's continuing efforts at self-immolation its large neighbor across the Aegean has been getting a relatively free ride from the international press. Apart from a few semi-critical pieces in The Economist and various small items about the Kurds, critical analysis of what is going on in Turkey tends to get buried under the Greek and Syrian avalanche of news.

Part of the reason is that compared to the very, very low standards of the neighbourhood Turkey seems pretty good. When the comparisons are Greece, Bulgaria, Syria, Iraq and Iran you don’t have to do much to be the star of the class.

One banker said the relatively rosy picture of the Turkish economy masks a real vulnerability. “We are extremely vulnerable to external events. We need a steady flow of foreign funds to cover our deficits. We need low global interest rates. The minute these stop is the minute the Turkish economy starts to wobble.”

But the real risk, according to an experienced foreign banker, is political.

“The risk here, as always, is political. We have seen this chain of events often. At the first sign of political problems people rush to the U.S. dollar, the currency collapses, interest rates sky rocket, people stop spending, the ‘feel-good’ factor disappears overnight. We have seen this many, many times,” he said.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002 promising an increase in ‘democracy’. What has actually transpired over the last decade is a re-emergence of familiar rigid Turkish autocracy, but with a different cast of characters running the show. Instead of the Kemalist military, bureaucratic and business elite the country is now run by and for the conservative Anatolian-based masses. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged as the undisputed, unchallenged leader of the country, more in line with one of the early Ottoman sultans than any modern democrat.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan

 The few checks and balances that once existed have all but disappeared. The once-powerful military has been humbled, any remaining political opposition has been emasculated, and the rapidly diminishing number of critics silenced. “He can do anything he wants,” said one foreign businessman referring to the prime minister. “This is a democracy in structure, but not in function.”

The press has been one of the major victims of this disturbing trend toward thought control. Never known for its accuracy, the Turkish press was at least lively with several different versions of the same story appearing in different papers. Now, as one friend put it, “the press has been reduced to bread and circuses.” Front pages are dominated by scandal-ridden Turkish football, the inevitable bus accident, crime, or pictures of aging starlets displaying embarrassing amounts of cellulite. In many ways the press now resembles Jack Nicholson’s lobotomized character Randle McMurphy at the end of the great film One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest. Challenge authority too much and this is what can happen.

Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Scores of journalists have been jailed or fired for daring to criticize any aspect of the government in general or the prime minister in particular. As Yavuz Baydar points out in a column in Today’s Zaman this timidity does not require overt government censorship. He says the courage of media owners, never that strong in the first place, has completely wilted in the face of potential threats against any of their other business interests. They all remember with horror the very large tax claim against the country’s leading media group. It was a very effective shot across the bow.

This self-censorship does not apply only to papers that once used to challenge Erdoğan. A journalist from a strong government supporter Yeni Şafak was recently fired for veering from the company line over the killing of 34 Kurdish teenagers who were thought to be terrorists. The reality was that they were smuggling goods back and forth between Iraq and Turkey, an activity in that area that goes back at least as far as Xenophon in 401 BC.

A recent column in the English language DailyNews by Semih Idiz points out dangerous trends in the judiciary, politics, social and cultural life as the ruling party tries to impose its narrow views on Turkish life. The government is moving against state-sponsored theatres after the prime minister lashed out against ‘arrogant, alcoholic actors’ who he said insulted his daughter. Erdoğan  says he wants a ‘religious generation’ to emerge. A prosecutor recently brought a case against internationally-renowned pianist Fazıl Say for allegedly insulting Islam in a Twitter message.

State Theater Workers Protesting A Government Crackdown

 In yet another outburst the prime minister compared abortion to the massacre of the Kurdish teenagers at Uludere and said anyone who had an abortion was committing murder. Predictably this has unleashed a wave of protest. But as long as that protest does not reach down into the deep AKP voter base Erdoğan really doesn’t care.

Turkish Women Defending The Right To Abortion

 One Turkish analyst says two of the major problems facing Turkey are the Kurdish issue and succession within AKP if and when Erdoğan moves up to the presidency.

“The Arab Spring has reached our borders, but our leaders don’t seem anxious to apply the lessons they’re preaching to others. Turkey is such a one-man show right now, that no one can predict what will happen if Erdoğan ever leaves active daily politics for the rarefied atmosphere of the theoretically neutral presidency.”

For the moment the prime minister can afford to ignore any of the voices raised in protest. The Teflon shield surrounding him won't crack until the economy hits the wall or the violence of the Kurdish protests

increases. Then he will need more than simple, loud bombast.