The downfall of long-time Tunisian strongman Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali has prompted a great deal of ink about the fate of other Arab autocrats. Is Tunisia, like Solidarity in Poland, the spark that will set off a chain reaction and freedom and democracy in the Middle East? Will other regimes use some imagination to deal with the turmoil spreading from under the rock of oppression or will they simply push down harder on the rock to make sure absolutely nothing seeps out?
Initial reactions are not promising. Other than checking the status of their get-away planes and Swiss bank accounts the autocrats’ reactions have been typical – buy off potential threats by lowering prices of key commodities rather than deal with the real underlying issues. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have quickly lowered prices of key items to pre-empt any disturbances over rising prices. Saudi Arabia may also have felt it had to do something to cut off protests after it solidified its reputation for never turning away a despot in need by granting asylum to the unpopular Ben Ali. Syria has increased its heating oil allowance by 72% to the equivalent of $33/month for a total cost more than $300 million. Even moderate Jordan has similarly announced a package of $225 million in cuts for several fuels and staples including sugar and rice rather than risk the wrath of the people. It remains to be seen if these moves are enough to contain the virus of political freedom. It will be more difficult than in the past. With Facebook, tweets, and other electronic communications channels the autocrats can no longer control the news flow as much as they did. Their people may just require more than a reduced price for bread.
While the Tunisian events have been unfolding, there is a time bomb in Lebanon steadily ticking away. The prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has issued an indictment in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. He was killed with a huge car bomb that claimed another 22 innocent people. The indictment is being reviewed by a tribunal judge before the terms are released. But the widely held belief is that it will condemn the Iranian-supported group Hezbollah along with Syrian agents. Hariri was strongly opposed to Syria meddling in Lebanese affairs, and many believe that Syria played a key role in the assassination. The fact that 10 Lebanese politicians opposed to Syrian control have been killed since 2005 is a clue that these suspicions may not be groundless.
A further clue to Hezbollah involvement is that the group pulled its members out of the Lebanese government last week in protest about the indictment and its possible conclusions. Hezbollah wants the government to distance itself from the Special Tribunal and stop cooperating with it. The odds of this happening are not great because, among other things, the acting Lebanese government is headed by the son of the assassinated prime minister. Operating on the premise that offense is better than defence, Hezbollah is trying to discredit the tribunal and has predictably called it a tool of the United States and Israel. Hezbollah added that it will not allow any of its members to be arrested as a result of the indictment. With its heavily armed and disciplined militia that is not an idle claim.
Meanwhile representatives from just about every other country inside and outside the region are meeting to try to find a way to stop Lebanon from sliding into bloody chaos after the indictment is released to the public. Lebanon is a delicate construct of deeply incompatible religious, economic and political interests that seems to survive on nuances and deals that slither around this incompatibility without ever challenging it. There is a fear that something as direct and blunt as a United Nations-sponsored indictment rendered by the Tribunal’s Canadian prosecutor will tear these relationships apart with disastrous consequences.
Syria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and France are desperately trying to find a solution that will square the circle. Egypt is not directly involved, but there are reports its agents are busily working away in the Sunni regions of Lebanon. The result of all these meetings so far is a collection of inane statements that make Texas beauty pageant winners sound like Rhodes Scholars. The prime minister of Turkey, a relative late comer to intra-Arab affairs and included over the objections of Egypt, lets us know that he wants peace in the region. Very good. Any ideas how to achieve this? The spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry says a solution must balance stability and justice. Good luck with that, whatever that statement means.
If, as expected, Hezbollah is implicated in Hariri’s assassination it risks losing a great deal of the credibility within Lebanon that it gained as a result of its strong resistance to the disastrous Israeli invasion in 2006. Many Lebanese may not like Hezbollah, but they like the Israelis even less. Over the last few years the organization has tried to portray itself as dedicated to the welfare of Lebanon and not just a tool of its fellow Shiites in Iran. Once the indictment is made public this facade will be torn to shreds and the Sunni Moslems and Christians in Lebanon would now have a powerful weapon to use against Hezbollah.
One gets the impression that release of the indictment was delayed less for a judicial review than to give the parties involved a chance to find a solution that would avoid chaos. No one so far seems to have bothered to ask the Lebanese people just what they would like to happen once the indictment is released. Or perhaps it is felt that their wishes are far less important than the interests of the various patron states.
Showing posts with label Lebanon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lebanon. Show all posts
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
Wednesday, 29 December 2010
A Very Tangled Web
No country better illustrates the tangled web of political and economic relations in the Middle East than the Republic of Cyprus. This divided island about 40 miles off the southern coast of Turkey has managed to maintain useful relationships with the Arabs and Israel while simultaneously poking a finger in the eye of its large, implacable foe – Turkey.
The current issue involves the large deposits of natural gas and oil that have been discovered in the waters of the eastern Mediterranean. Rather than create a deadly free-for-all about who owns what Cyprus has negotiated what it calls Exclusive Economic Zones carefully delineating areas of economic interest with Israel, Lebanon, and Egypt. No agreement with Syria has been reached yet, but Syrian president Bashar al-Assad recently paid a two-day visit to Cyprus to discuss areas of economic cooperation. Given Syria’s close ties to Turkey, this visit has to be counted a major success for Cyprus.
The latest economic zone agreement with Israel annoyed the Turks who went so far as to call in the Israeli ambassador to express their displeasure and note that this agreement interferes with efforts to re-unite the island. As Turkish journalist Burak Bekdil notes, the Israeli ambassador could well have asked why similar concerns were not expressed with Lebanese or Egyptian agreements. Semih Idiz noted in another column that the waters of eastern Mediterranean are heating up with the hydro-carbon discoveries.
Turkey also maintains that these agreements infringe upon the rights of the self-proclaimed statelet of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and make any reunification of the island more difficult. The only problem is that no country other than Turkey recognizes the TRNC. For the rest of the world the Republic of Cyprus is the only legitimate government of the island.
The island of Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey landed troops and occupied about 30% of the island. In the Turkish version the landing was necessary to protect the Turkish minority from ethnic cleansing by gangs of Greek thugs. In the Greek Cypriot version the Turkish military landing was an invasion pure and simple. The Turks established something called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus that is officially recognized only by its patron Turkey. The Republic of Cyprus, meanwhile, is the internationally recognized government of the island and is a member of the European Union.
There have been half-hearted attempts to re-unite the island, but, given their strong international position and thriving economy, it is hard to see why the Greek Cypriots would be interested in a deal. Turkey, on the other hand, would love to see a settlement for at least two reasons. Its refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus as the legitimate government of the island is a major block to its EU pretensions. Second, maintaining the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, costs the Turkish treasury $400 million a year – money that could be better spent in Turkey itself. In addition, Turkey continues to station about 30,000 troops in the northern part of the island. The economic gulf separating the two sides of the island is only widening as the 800,000 Greek Cypriots enjoy a per capita income of $28,000 while the per capita income of the 256,000 Turkish Cypriots is less than half that amount.
The Republic of Cyprus also benefits from its 10% corporate tax rate for onshore and offshore companies. It is interesting to note that the European Union is demanding that Ireland increase its similarly low tax rate, but no one says anything about Cyprus. Banks in the Republic of Cyprus have also made themselves useful to Russians looking for somewhere to keep their piles of cash. The TRNC meanwhile has no international trade (other than with Turkey) to speak of, and relies heavily on casinos that attract the high rollers from Turkey where casinos have been banned for several years because of their connection to organized crime.
Despite Turkey’s push to improve ties with the Arab world, no Arab country has reciprocated by daring to recognize the Turkish part of the island. Even Turkey’s cousins in Azerbaijan and close Moslem brothers in Pakistan have refused recognition. Their ties with the Republic of Cyprus, and by extension Greece and the entire European Union, are too valuable. One small example is that when visiting many Arab countries I often recall commenting on the quality of various products imported from Cyprus. This comment would be greeted with hoots of laughter, and I would be told that the product was actually manufactured in Israel. It would be sent to Cyprus, have the labels switched and then sent to countries that officially boycott goods from Israel.
Among other things these agreements clarify Israel’s right to explore and produce gas and oil from offshore fields. The stakes for Israel are very high as the latest discovery indicates reserves of 16 trillion cubic feet of gas at the Leviathan structure, about twice the amount discovered at the nearby Tamar site. These major discoveries could turn Israel into a gas exporter, and could finally contradict the old joke that Moses led the Jews around the Middle East for 40 years and finally put them on the only piece of land that didn’t have oil. Moses said nothing about offshore riches.
The oil and gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean are a potential economic ‘game changer’ for the region, and one can only hope that these new economic zone agreements can avoid turning this positive development into yet another reason for conflict.
The current issue involves the large deposits of natural gas and oil that have been discovered in the waters of the eastern Mediterranean. Rather than create a deadly free-for-all about who owns what Cyprus has negotiated what it calls Exclusive Economic Zones carefully delineating areas of economic interest with Israel, Lebanon, and Egypt. No agreement with Syria has been reached yet, but Syrian president Bashar al-Assad recently paid a two-day visit to Cyprus to discuss areas of economic cooperation. Given Syria’s close ties to Turkey, this visit has to be counted a major success for Cyprus.
The latest economic zone agreement with Israel annoyed the Turks who went so far as to call in the Israeli ambassador to express their displeasure and note that this agreement interferes with efforts to re-unite the island. As Turkish journalist Burak Bekdil notes, the Israeli ambassador could well have asked why similar concerns were not expressed with Lebanese or Egyptian agreements. Semih Idiz noted in another column that the waters of eastern Mediterranean are heating up with the hydro-carbon discoveries.
Turkey also maintains that these agreements infringe upon the rights of the self-proclaimed statelet of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and make any reunification of the island more difficult. The only problem is that no country other than Turkey recognizes the TRNC. For the rest of the world the Republic of Cyprus is the only legitimate government of the island.
The island of Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey landed troops and occupied about 30% of the island. In the Turkish version the landing was necessary to protect the Turkish minority from ethnic cleansing by gangs of Greek thugs. In the Greek Cypriot version the Turkish military landing was an invasion pure and simple. The Turks established something called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus that is officially recognized only by its patron Turkey. The Republic of Cyprus, meanwhile, is the internationally recognized government of the island and is a member of the European Union.
There have been half-hearted attempts to re-unite the island, but, given their strong international position and thriving economy, it is hard to see why the Greek Cypriots would be interested in a deal. Turkey, on the other hand, would love to see a settlement for at least two reasons. Its refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus as the legitimate government of the island is a major block to its EU pretensions. Second, maintaining the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, costs the Turkish treasury $400 million a year – money that could be better spent in Turkey itself. In addition, Turkey continues to station about 30,000 troops in the northern part of the island. The economic gulf separating the two sides of the island is only widening as the 800,000 Greek Cypriots enjoy a per capita income of $28,000 while the per capita income of the 256,000 Turkish Cypriots is less than half that amount.
The Republic of Cyprus also benefits from its 10% corporate tax rate for onshore and offshore companies. It is interesting to note that the European Union is demanding that Ireland increase its similarly low tax rate, but no one says anything about Cyprus. Banks in the Republic of Cyprus have also made themselves useful to Russians looking for somewhere to keep their piles of cash. The TRNC meanwhile has no international trade (other than with Turkey) to speak of, and relies heavily on casinos that attract the high rollers from Turkey where casinos have been banned for several years because of their connection to organized crime.
Despite Turkey’s push to improve ties with the Arab world, no Arab country has reciprocated by daring to recognize the Turkish part of the island. Even Turkey’s cousins in Azerbaijan and close Moslem brothers in Pakistan have refused recognition. Their ties with the Republic of Cyprus, and by extension Greece and the entire European Union, are too valuable. One small example is that when visiting many Arab countries I often recall commenting on the quality of various products imported from Cyprus. This comment would be greeted with hoots of laughter, and I would be told that the product was actually manufactured in Israel. It would be sent to Cyprus, have the labels switched and then sent to countries that officially boycott goods from Israel.
Among other things these agreements clarify Israel’s right to explore and produce gas and oil from offshore fields. The stakes for Israel are very high as the latest discovery indicates reserves of 16 trillion cubic feet of gas at the Leviathan structure, about twice the amount discovered at the nearby Tamar site. These major discoveries could turn Israel into a gas exporter, and could finally contradict the old joke that Moses led the Jews around the Middle East for 40 years and finally put them on the only piece of land that didn’t have oil. Moses said nothing about offshore riches.
The oil and gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean are a potential economic ‘game changer’ for the region, and one can only hope that these new economic zone agreements can avoid turning this positive development into yet another reason for conflict.
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