Political Earthquake Rattles Turkish Political Status Quo

The recent crushing defeat of Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan’s chosen candidate for mayor of Istanbul – the country’s largest city and centre of economic activity – demonstrated much more than the skill of a young, dynamic opponent with a clear message. The defeat revealed wide cracks in the dogmatic, resentful, autocratic veneer that Erdoğan had drawn over the country – cracks that will be almost impossible for him to repair.

            Another key message of this election – and why it heralds deep changes in Turkey – is that the slow, sometimes painfully slow, evolution of democracy is much longer lasting than the previous quick fixes of military coups that only made things worse in the long run by papering over rather than solving sharp divisions. Yet another message is that the term ‘Islamic democracy’ is not a complete oxymoron. When given the chance people in countries with an overwhelmingly Moslem population can indeed vote for positive change.

Ekrem Imamoglu and his wife Dilek. The new symbol of Turkey?

            From the time he first became mayor of Istanbul in 1994, then prime minister, then president with unchecked powers Erdoğan has feasted on the ‘we-vs.-them’  theme where the ‘we’ were the struggling masses of Anatolia and the ‘them’ were the so-called ‘White Turks’ of the traditional political, military, and economic elite. The message only got stronger when the bulk of rural Anatolia emigrated into Turkey’s booming cities. Erdoğan’s message of how the social, religious and economic concerns of the masses were ignored by the White Turks resonated loudly. The sad thing is that he was not completely wrong.

            Rainer Hermann, Middle East editor for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, lived for almost 20 years in Turkey and the Gulf and is one of the most astute analysts of the region. He has travelled widely throughout Turkey and spent many days in the burgeoning suburbs of Istanbul observing how they have changed over the last 15 – 20 years. The festering slums have been replaced by apartment blocks, water systems, roads, public transit, and schools. ‘What Erdoğan failed to notice were the social, political and economic changes in the third and fourth generation of Anatolian immigrants into Turkey’s cities. Now almost 80% of the Turkish population now lives in the country’s 30 largest cities. By this time, they are thoroughly urbanized and their expectations are similar to many young people throughout Europe. In short, the ‘we’ he used to rely on has become the ‘them’.’

            With this background it is easier to see how Erdoğan’s proxy candidate in Istanbul,  the old faithful Binali Yildirm, had very little chance against the much younger and energetic Ekrem Imamoğlu who had previously been the mayor of one of the city’s several sub-districts. Yildirm sang the same old song, but this time the chorus was not with him.

            Another very good analyst of Turkish affairs, Kadri Gursel, noted that the Istanbul election amounts to a ‘political earthquake. The June 23 result is nothing less than a tectonic shift in Turkish politics, the impact of which was felt in all of Istanbul’s districts.’ He went on to say that Erdoğan ‘could well lose Turkey down the road because any political change in Istanbul reflects on the whole country sooner or later. A megapolis of 16 million people, Istanbul is a role model emulated by the rest of the country. It is a trendsetter in almost everything, from lifestyles and consumption habits to sports, culture and arts. And any trend that Istanbul does not adopt remains local, failing to spread across the country. This goes for political trends as well. One cannot win over Turkey without winning over Istanbul.’

            This defeat could also have a serious impact on Turkey’s foreign relations. It is one thing to punch above your weight and use the bellicose language of a neighbourhood bully when supported by the full-throated roar of 80 million people. It is quite another to act that way when the economy is in free-fall and that ‘full-throated roar’ has diminished to a whimper. A weakened domestic position will very quickly result in a weakened international position. Very few leaders will be willing to pay attention to or do any favours for someone they may start to see as a lame duck.

            This development couldn’t have come at a worse time for Erdoğan who is facing problems and increased isolation on multiple fronts – Syria, the Kurds, Iraq, the US, the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, Cyprus, Greece, Russia – just to name a few. Take the Russian S-400 missiles for example. He is damned if he takes them and damned if he doesn’t. The American Congress has threatened serious economic sanctions – such as excluding Turkey from the advanced fighter jet F-35 program – if Turkey carries through with its purchase of the Russian missiles. Erdoğan is desperately lobbying President Trump to overrule the proposed sanctions, but Trump would have a great of difficulty in doing that because the sanctions were approved unanimously in the famously partisan Congress. Turkey has very few friends in Washington these days. If he doesn’t take the Russian missiles who knows how Russian President Putin will react. Not calmly one suspects.

                                                

Which one Mr. President? You can't have both.

                                                                                    

                                       

S-400

            

            

The next step in this rapidly unfolding drama is the much-talked-about creation of a new political party led by former stalwarts of previous AKP governments. Erdoğan could be in a very difficult position if they succeed in forming such a party and peeling away significant numbers of AKP members of parliament. Then he could find himself as isolated domestically as he is on the international front. If that happens his days as an autocratic one-man ruler could be over.

Turkey's Already Difficult Path Just Got More Difficult

The only surprising thing about the outcome of yesterday’s Turkish referendum was just how close the result was. Given his total domination of the media, use of thuggish gangs to intimidate opposition rallies, jailing political opponents and journalists Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan should have won his power grab by 20 points or more. Reflecting the complete split and sharp divisions of Turkish society he won by less than 3 percentage points. And the opposition is claiming that at least 2.5 million invalid votes were cast in favour of the constitutional changes. Because Erdoğan and his cronies control every branch of government it is very doubtful that those claims will get anywhere.

The map shows the huge problem Erdoğan faces. All the big cities, the Aegean coast and Kurdish areas
voted against him.

            A leader genuinely interested in representing the entire country would pay close attention to this vote, especially the fact that all major cities voted against the constitutional changes. This was the first time ever that Istanbul, for example, had voted against Erdoğan. But introspection and course alteration to meet the demands of 50% of the population are not on Erdoğan’s agenda. He is now free to move Turkey even further from the ideals of Europe and closer to the dictators and petty despots of Central Asia he admires so much.

            He never liked the European Union with all its emphasis on thorny issues like human rights, freedom of speech, or independent judiciary. He loved to whip up the crowds by railing against any European leader who had the temerity to criticize him. He promised to replace the EU’s Copenhagen criteria with his co-called Ankara criteria, which most likely include stiff jail sentences for any of those pesky EU leaders who set foot in Turkey.

Erdoğan votes in the referendum

            One would like to think that the better-than-usual results achieved by the opposition would encourage them to capitalize on this showing by getting better organized and broadening their appeal to all segments of Turkish society.

On one level, Turkish voters continued their vain search for a strong leader a Man on a White Horse who can solve all their problems with the flick of his wrist. This part of the society refuses to accept that the complicated process of improving the country starts with themselves and includes truly independent institutions like the judiciary, the press, the Central Bank, and above all else a quality education system. But that’s hard work. Much easier to rely on the strong man. However, it was encouraging to see that almost 50% of the population rejected this simplistic notion and demonstrated – against all odds – that they valued a real representative democracy, with all its faults. Perhaps they can keep the flame of democracy alive in Turkey.

            His cynical tirades against Europe paid off for him as the referendum results showed most of the Turks who voted in Germany or the Netherlands voted in favour of the constitutional changes. In fact, without these votes Erdoğan may well have lost the referendum. Most of these Turks may have no intention of returning to Turkey, but they told a German journalist friend of mine that Erdoğan made them ‘feel proud to be Turkish.’ It’s a pity that they don’t realize they were just useful tools for Erdoğan and are much better off in Germany or the Netherlands – where they enjoy the full spectrum of rights and economic opportunities -- than they ever would be back in Turkey.

            In all his push to resemble his Central Asia idols, Erdoğan faces one enormous problem – a problem he can’t solve with a jail sentence. The economy now resembles Venezuela-without-the-oil, and is eroding like sand under his feet. The budget deficit is increasing rapidly, unemployment is climbing, inflation is back in double digits, and inward investment has dropped sharply. To add insult to injury, Iran is now the favored destination for many European companies. It is becoming increasingly difficult to fund Erdoğan’s massive public spending projects, projects that have enriched his family and several of his close associates over the last several years. Many people have spoken about this ‘charmed circle’, but a recent analysis by Rainer Hermann in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung described it in great detail. But now, funding them has become a real problem. Money is disappearing from the Treasury. Erdoğan has had to resort to such desperate tactics as issuing government guarantees of profitability for the favored contractors or demanding the state banks lend to these projects when private banks refuse. He has also forced state companies into a so-called Wealth Fund which will enable him to re-direct the cash flow and borrowing capabilities of those companies into ever-increasing public works projects to keep the ‘charmed circle’ happy and rich – at the state’s expense.

            What comes next? Will massive statues of Tayyip Erdoğan begin to dot the landscape of Turkey?  Will his likeness be sculpted onto a cliff, like Mount Rushmore in America? Will he change his name to something like Türkbaşɩ, Chief Turk? Who knows? And more important, how will he react when faced with serious economic, international or military problems of his own making? He has already reduced the number of Turkey’s friends to such a level that they can hold their annual convention in a phone booth. Who will he call? Donald Trump? Vladimir Putin?

            For the immediate future the Turks can only wait nervously while Erdoğan determines just how to play his narrow win. Will he snuff out Turkish democracy completely or will he uncharacteristically reach out to the millions of Turks who actually like their democracy?