America's Unseemly Retreat

That sound you’re hearing is one Americans don’t hear very often. It’s the sound of a panicked full scale retreat. Fearful of the wide world, convinced of his own narrow prejudices, disdainful of anything like facts Trump has chosen to pull up the drawbridge and cower behind walls rather than continue 70 years of strong American global presence. Far from being a beacon for the rest of the world, America under Trump is turning into a stagnant pond. The Statue of Liberty must be blushing.

So much for welcoming the poor and meek

Since World War II America has provided a blanket of economic and military stability for much of the world. Yes, there have been serious lapses like Vietnam or Iraq, but there are very few who can doubt the huge role that the United States has – up to now – played. Now Trump wants to change all that. According to him, the world is filled with deadbeats and cheats who have been getting a free ride under the American security umbrella and who have undermined the American economy with cheap imports.

American troops helping defend NATO ally Estonia. Just another deadbeat?

Does he have any idea that these years of bi-partisan American leadership were essentially an exercise in enlightened self-interest? Doubtful. Absent from his fact-free rants is any serious analysis of who or what will fill the vacuum created by the American withdrawal. What malignant forces will this retreat let loose? Not for him any serious analysis of trade. Does he even understand or care that American companies are the undisputed winners – not losers -- in globalization? Does he even understand that the real profit for a company like Apple is in the design and engineering done in California, not the manufacturing done in China? Why should American companies be forced to retain low profit, low value-added plants in the United States? There is nothing Trump can do to change the economic realities of the modern world.

But these are mere details, and we all know Trump has no time for details. I am not even sure that he realizes just how much he mimics the isolationist, anti-Semitic rants of the earlier ‘American Firsters’ led by Father Charles Edward Coughlin in the 1930s. Coughlin’s radio broadcasts were hugely popular as he excoriated Jews and praised Hitler and Mussolini in the run-up to World War II. In theory that war taught Americans the harsh consequences of isolationism. But obviously, Trump never bothered absorbing that lesson. Substitute Moslems for Jews and you have Trump of 2017.

Now the White House hyperventilates in the presence of foreigners in general and goes weak in the knees at the mere sight of Moslems. What’s worse, Trump and his acolytes simply don’t care. As he told TheWall Street Journal when asked if the U.S. should encourage political stability and economic growth in Mexico he replied, “I don’t care about Mexico. Honestly, I really don’t care about Mexico.”  If this is how he regards America’s southern neighbour with a population of almost 130 million and with close economic and political ties to the U.S. just think how he regards America’s role in the larger world.

Trump’s minions proudly proclaim his immigrant policy a ‘great success’. The only success of this mindless policy is to give groups like ISIS unparalleled free recruitment advertising. ‘See, I told you they hate you. Join up now and fight back!’ The problems American forces face in the Middle East have just been multiplied several times. So much for countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Gulf states, or even Egypt. Very tough for them to show much support for America under these conditions.

They just got a powerful new recruiting tool -- for free

Even in today’s multi-polar world the leadership role of the United States as the strongest economic and military power is undeniable. I remember a conversation with a senior Jordanian official not long ago when someone at the dinner table made a mild joke about America. The official scowled, turned to me and said “America is not something we joke about. It’s too important.”

            Trump’s arrogant disdain for international affairs and America’s role in the world may play well in certain parts of the country. But it could backfire badly with Republicans in Congress who are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the antics of the Republican president. Even the arch-conservative Charles Krauthammer is apalled at what he calls 'Trump's foreign policy revolution.' A friend of mine put it very well when he said that Trump is a like a spoiled 7-year-old brat who has been given an Abrams tank for Christmas and is proceeding to destroy the neighbourhood. Trump, who mocks the traditional Republican party, may try to circumvent Congress as much as he can and substitute his famous Tweets for policy. His ego is such that he could even break with the traditional Republican party and form a separate entity in his own image.

            Those cheering Trump’s latest moves against immigrants should remember a poem by German Pastor Martin Niemöller about the Nazi horrors of World War II.

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— 
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— 
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

An Awkward Moment for Turkey

Turkey is right now in a spot it had hoped to avoid. It has to make a decision, a decision between its new best friend Iran with all its despotic client states and organizations and its traditional allies in the West. The much vaunted ‘Zero Problem’ initiative of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has now generated Turkey’s biggest headache since the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002.


Turkey has been a member of NATO for more than 50 years and has the second largest army in the organization. Now NATO wants to install a missile shield against potential threats from certain countries, namely nuclear wanna-be Iran. One leg of this shield is scheduled to be placed in Turkey. Ouch!

Davutoglu and his boss, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, are frantically trying to reconcile the irreconcilable. Placing the missile shield in Turkey could jeopardize their burgeoning trade and energy relations with Iran. Refusing to place the shield in Turkey would just about kiss good-bye to whatever pretensions they had about joining the European Union as well as calling into question their very presence in NATO. Who needs a partner that bails out when the going gets tough?

One factor in the equation is economic; fast growing energy-starved Turkey needs Iran’s natural gas and Turkish companies need a place to expand their exports. But an equally important factor is that the balance of public sentiment has shifted dramatically away from the West. Turkey was founded in1923 by a military caste that equated modernization with Europe. Everything associated with the collapsed Ottoman Empire; its religion, its imperial status, and its ties to the Arabs, were regarded as anchors that held the country back and consequently suppressed.

Several developments in the last decade have shifted this orientation, and encouraged Turkey to seek a more independent role. If this means closer relations with pariah states like Iran, so be it. This policy plays very well with the Turkish masses who resent the condescension from Europe, the ambivalence over Turkey’s EU membership bid, and the blundering American policy in the Middle East.

AKP has its roots deep in Turkey’s long-neglected Islamic and socially conservative traditions. It has openly championed a resurgence of religious observance in a country whose founding principle is secularism. This move has created a deep fracture with the ruling secular elite that had run the country for 80 years. Suddenly, slavishly following European fashions and culture has been replaced by more conservative social and religious trends. Turkey is re-discovering its deep religious and historical ties to the Arab world. Damascus, Cairo and Dubai are now challenging Paris, London and Rome. Not all the Arabs are thrilled about Turkey’s renewed interest in the Islamic world. To them it comes too close to the Ottoman Empire that ruled much of the Arab world for more than 400 years.

Nonetheless, this shift in Turkey’s domestic priorities has opened the door to a more assertive, independent foreign policy. Turkish leaders no longer feel compelled to check with Washington and Europe before starting a new venture. They have trumpeted the new policy of ‘strategic depth’ and avoiding problems with one’s neighbours. This plays very well with the Turkish masses whose pride has been dented by constant barrage of criticism and unsolicited advice from EU bureaucrats. With the economy growing much faster than Europe’s the Turks don’t think they have to take advice or orders from anyone.

This is all well and good. But this new policy is much better on paper than in reality. It is a worthy goal to have zero problems with one’s neighbours, but what happens when your neighbours are problem areas like Syria, Iraq, Iran or Armenia? What do you do when they have problems with each other? How do you reconcile your policy objectives to Iranian support for Armenian genocide claims?

You can generate favourable headlines and demonstrations by asserting your distance from the West. But are better relations with places like Iran and Sudan going to replace NATO or the EU? More than 50% of Turkey’s exports go to the European Union. There is simply no way that the Middle East can replace the purchasing power of Europe that is so important to Turkish exports.

Turkey wants to be more independent. Fine. How to accomplish this without becoming isolated? If the West tires of Turkish equivocation where is Turkey going to turn? Turkey is big, but not big enough to forge a completely independent foreign policy like India, Brazil or China. Do the Turkish leaders believe that alliances with Iran, Syria, Hamas and Sudan will help them play a larger role in world affairs?

Turkey constantly says it opposes a nuclear-armed Iran. Yet it has done very little to hinder this development. It says sanctions won’t work and negotiations are the only way. What negotiations? With whom? The Iranians have consistently rejected any Turkish overtures to negotiate with the United States. Turkey’s stance on sanctions is just a bit disingenuous. Several of its companies are doing a booming business with Iran, and the government is loathe to see that stopped. The still-born effort with Brazil to shift some of Iran’s uranium to a third country came to nothing when the United Nations Security Council ignored it and passed the sanctions resolution despite a Turkish veto. Brazil later regretted its role and said it was dropping out of any future talks with Iran.

The Turkish foreign policy team is clever, and it is going to take every ounce of its skill and cunning to satisfy the seemingly mutually exclusive objectives of pleasing its NATO allies and Iran.