Can An Unprecedented Act Of Non-Violent Protest Help Restore Turkish Democracy And Justice?

During the stale pageant commemorating the first anniversary of the failed coup attempt, Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan and his acolytes demonstrated once again their ability to turn reality on its head. George Orwell would be proud of this very, very cynical performance.

            He hailed the failure of the coup as a victory for Turkish ‘democracy’ and yet another  demonstration of Turkey’s ‘unity’ and indomitable will to resist all enemies – foreign and domestic.

            Even conceding that the followers of the cleric Fethullah Gülen – who now lives in the United States -- were behind the coup, one wonders how Erdoğan can talk about unity when his actions for the past 12 months have done nothing but widen the existing deep divisions in Turkey and destroy his already slim credibility abroad. He is furious that no foreign leader is willing to give him the credit he thinks he deserves for ‘saving democracy’ in Turkey. He fails to appreciate that replacing the democracy that existed in Turkey with one-man rule is not the best way to get the appreciation and applause he thinks he so richly deserves.

Under the state of emergency that has been in place since the coup attempt – and just extended for another three months -- thousands upon thousands of people have been fired and the jails have been filled with people accused of being part of a ‘terrorist’ organization. It’s important to understand that Erdoğan’s definition of ‘terrorist’ is wide indeed. The ever-widening list of ‘terrorist’ organization includes the followers of Gülen, the Kurdish guerrilla group PKK, the Kurds in Syria and Iraq who are effectively fighting ISIS, and many others. The list also includes all those such as Amnesty International and opposition politicians accused of ‘aiding’ terrorist groups.

 

President Erdoğan at the anti-coup rally

            Erdoğan’s claims of national unity were also shown to be hollow when at least half the voters rejected the controversial referendum giving him absolute, dictatorial power. His narrow victory, marred by serious claims of fraud, was much closer than he anticipated.

            Then there was the 250-mile march from Ankara to Istanbul led by the opposition leader Kemal Kɩlɩçdaroğlu and joined by thousands who marched under banners emblazoned simply with the word Justice. This unprecedented example of non-violent civil disobedience was in protest of the arrest of an MP from Kɩlɩçdaroğlu’s party who, as a journalist, had the temerity to publish a story with pictures about Turkey smuggling weapons to radical groups in Syria.

            The odd thing about the failed coup, as one European journalist said, is that it was more like a family feud than the traditional military coups that Turkey had become accustomed to. After all, Gülen and Erdoğan were Islamic soul mates for decades. Gülen’s followers had been infiltrating government agencies and the military for years, and Erdoğan did nothing to stop this when he came to power 15 years ago. In fact, according to Murat Yetkin – one of the few remaining respected journalists in Turkey -- the cooperation only grew stronger as the Foreign Ministry ‘ordered diplomats abroad to give full assistance to Gülenist institutions and schools opened in remote corners of the world, think tanks in influential places like the U.S. and European capitals, and institutions in world-renowned universities.”

            When Erdoğan was warned that Gülen’s people were taking over the judiciary he said that was no problem because they ‘shared the same qibla’ – the same religion. In 2008 it was Gülenists (many of whom are now on the run or in jail themselves) in the judiciary who fabricated evidence against current and former army officers, journalists, academics and others who were thrown in jail on charges of trying to overthrow Erdoğan’s government. This so-called evidence was later shown to be merely a figment of someone’s imagination. Again, Erdoğan did nothing to stop this abuse of judiciary power.

            It was only in 2013 when the Gülenists began probing serious corruption charges against certain cabinet ministers and Erdoğan’s own family that relations between the two began to sour. Gülenists in the police released several deeply embarrassing tape recordings of the ministers and Erdoğan’s family discussing all the money they had amassed. As if this wasn’t bad enough, the final split came when Gülen opposed Erdoğan’s bumbling intervention in the Syrian civil war.Now, of course, the former close ties and cooperation are being swept under the rug as hapless AKP spokespeople are going around saying ‘Fetullah who? Never knew the guy’.

 

Kɩlɩçdaroğlu leading the Justice march from Ankara to Istanbul

            Erdoğan’s commemoration ceremonies rang hollow with the same stale rhetoric and the spontaneity of a Stalinist politburo address. Same old, same old. The real star of the summer political season was Kɩlɩçdaroğlu’s march, a truly spontaneous example of non-violent protest in Turkey. Many people equated it to Gandhi’s Salt March in India in 1930 in protest of the British tax on salt. Erdoğan was at times dismissive and then furious at his inability to stop this powerful demonstration of civil non-violent disobedience. How do you arrest a 69-year-old man marching 250 miles in the heat of the summer during the Holy Month of Ramadan carrying a one-word banner Justice? Many thousands joined this march that ended July 9 with a massive rally in Istanbul.

            It took another 18 years from Gandhi’s Salt March before India gained independence. We can only hope it doesn’t take that long for Turkey to regain real democracy and justice.

Judiciary Issues A Powerful Lesson To Trump

A federal appeals court in the United States just brought down to earth and demonstrated powerfully for all to see the value of such seemingly abstract terms as rule of law or separation of powers. In the process the court also demonstrated why such concepts are the absolute bedrock of any self-respecting democracy, and are feared by all current and wanna-be autocrats.

The particular issue in this case was the noxious and shambolic temporary travel ban that the Trump administration imposed to bar entry into the United States for refugees and citizens of selected countries. Technically, a three-member panel of the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals refused unanimously the Trump administration’s attempt to overturn a lower court’s order temporarily blocking enforcement of the ban.

 

9th Ciruit Court of Appeals

The three-judge panel, including judges appointed by both major political parties, could have issued its ruling in a brief paragraph or two. Instead, it gave the new administration a sharply-worded 29-page lesson in constitutional law and separation of powers.

The opinion relied heavily on rights granted by due process, and shredded the administration’s main argument that the courts had no business reviewing Trump’s executive order temporarily banning refugees and those from seven majority-Moslem countries. This claim was slapped down hard.

“There is no precedent to support this claimed unreviewability, which runs contrary to thefundamental structure of our constitutional democracy.” In other, less august terms, you could say the court told the administration to ‘sit down and read the Constitution before issuing such foolish executive orders.’

Trump's order prompted massive protests across the country

Turkish courts take note. I wonder if President Tayyip Erdoğan read that particular section. Just imagine his reaction if any Turkish court issued a similar ruling that sharply limited his power. I suspect the reaction would be near-nuclear.

The 9^th Circuit Court didn’t stop there. It also strongly rebutted the government’s claim of public interest to avoid irreparable injury.

“The Government has pointed to no evidence that any alien from any of the countries named in the Order has perpetrated a terrorist act in the United States. Rather than present evidence to explain the need for the Executive Order, the Government has taken the position that we must not review its decisions at all. We disagree.” Get the point, Mr. Trump?

While not ruling explicitly on claims of religious discrimination, the Appeals Court gave a strong indication of where its sentiments lie. It forcefully reminded the government of the constitutional protection for all religions, and that the constitution “prohibits the Government from impermissibly discriminating among persons based on religion.”

The court also said evidence submitted by the states challenging Trump’s order included his previous statements about implementing a ‘Muslim ban’ as well as evidence they claim suggested that the Executive Order was intended to be that ban. While not the final judgement, these statements are a thinly veiled warning to the government not to even attempt such a ban.

Of particular interest to Turkey in the issue of the extradition request for Fetullah Gulen  is the court’s insistence on the due process rights of everyone in the United States – Green Card holders, legal immigrants, illegal immigrants – the whole lot. The language couldn’t be more clear.

“The procedural protections provided by the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause are not limited to citizens. Rather, they apply to all persons within the United States, including aliens, regardless of whether their presence here is lawful, unlawful, temporary or permanent.”

In other words, even if the Trump administration agreed to Erdoğan’s demands to extradite Gulen, the reclusive cleric has every right to contest that order in court, and if necessary push his case all the way to the Supreme Court. Obama tried to tell this to Erdoğan, but the message obviously didn’t sink in. Instead of building a sound legal case the Turkish government has relied on Trump-style bombast and not-so-subtle threats. The message of this ruling should be that such behaviour will backfire – just as it has done for Trump. Such tactics also didn’t work in Greece where the Supreme Court ruled against extradition for the eight Turkish soldiers who landed in Greece after the abortive coup attempt last summer. Why does Erdoğan think they will work in the United States?

Gulen's legal rights trump political concerns

The Trump administration has not indicated just what it will do – other than issue more harsh Tweets – about this ruling. It could well appeal all the way to Supreme Court where it would face an uncertain result. Regardless of the action of the Supreme Court this ruling is a strong reminder to the Trump administration that, unlike his family business, there are three, equal branches of government and that he cannot implement his favourite policies at the mere stroke of a pen.

Coups Are The Wrong Solution To Turkey's Woes

It will be a long time, maybe never, before the real story of the attempted coup in Turkey emerges. What we don’t know far exceeds what we do know. The only thing that is clear at the moment is that the one person to benefit from this farce is President Tayyip Erdoğan. Even if the coup had succeeded it was the exact opposite of what Turkey needs.

            Well-armed with a full magazine of self-righteous, theatrical anger he now has the perfect excuse to eliminate anyone who might conceivably oppose him in purges that would make Joseph Stalin blush. Erdoğan loudly proclaimed that he is protecting his version of ‘democracy’ which probably doesn’t vary much from what the military would have imposed.

            The conspiracy theorists in Turkey are having a field day with such claims as ‘This is nothing more than Erdoğan’s Reichstag fire’ – a reference to the 1933 burning of the German parliament building, started by the Nazis but blamed on some hapless Dutch communist, that presented Adolf Hitler with the perfect excuse to move against all his opponents. It seems a little far-fetched to say that Erdoğan was actively behind the attempted coup, but it is not inconceivable that he had some prior intelligence about such a move and that he  knew it would fail. He was not slow to take advantage of this golden opportunity to grab the small bit of power that still eluded him.

The coup that turned into deadly farce

            It is the sheer incompetence of the plotters that generates some questions. The Turkish army is fairly skilled in coups, but apparently the plotters missed the course called Coup Making 101. The first step in any successful coup is to arrest the civilian leadership as was done in 1960 and 1980. This was not done. As soon as I heard that Erdoğan was making public statements I knew the whole thing was over. The effect Erdoğan’s broadcast was the same as Hitler announcing he was alive after the assassination attempt on July 20, 1944. Anyone even thinking of joining the plotters had a sudden change of heart and did absolutely nothing. It is fair to say the same thing happened in Turkey. Who knows what would have happened if the plotters had been marginally more efficient?

            In a final tragi-comic step a group of eight plotters swiped a helicopter and flew to Greece to ask for political asylum. This is just what Greece needs. The Greek authorities must be groaning and asking why, oh why, couldn’t they have just flown a few minutes more and landed in Bulgaria. As of Sunday night the helicopter has been returned, but there has been no decision announced on the men.

This is not a problem the Greeks need

            As far as Erdoğan is concerned the real culprit is clear – his one-time ally Fetullah Gülen who now lives on a farm in Pennsylvania in the United States. Erdoğan has long accused Gülen of setting up a ‘parallel’ state structure in Turkey to challenge Erdoğan’s government. According to Erdoğan, the tentacles of the Gülen organization reach deep into the military, judiciary, police and administrative institutions of Turkey – all the organizations now being ‘cleansed’ by the thousands. In addition, I would not be surprised to see him build up a strong para-military force answerable only to him to counter any future discontent with the military ranks.

            But the real victims in this idiocy that cost too many lives are not the plotters who deserve every punishment they get, but the long-suffering people of Turkey. Yes, Tayyip Erdoğan is a typical autocrat who has absolutely no regard for individual freedoms or respect for the incredible diversity of Turkey. But the solution is never going to be replacing one autocrat with another – the army. Too many of Erdoğan’s opponents think there is only a binary choice in Turkey -- an oppressive, Islamic Erdoğan or an oppressive, secular army. They are missing the point.

            Perhaps Erdoğan’s biggest fault in his long period in power is to strengthen the already dominant tendency in Turkey to revere the ‘strong man’ the ‘man on a white horse’ who can solve all the country’s problems with the stroke of a pen. Instead of building up and strengthening governing institutions like the judiciary, the central bank, the security services or police he made them subservient to his will. Consequently, very few people, if any, have the least bit of faith in the institutions that define a modern political entity. No one in any political or administrative position wants to make a decision without consulting the ‘reis’ – the chief to see which way he is leaning.

            Many of Erdoğan’s opponents fall into this same trap. Instead of the hard, time consuming process of building an alternative political movement stressing process and institution-building they, too, look for a simple answer – a charismatic hero to challenge Erdoğan. This latest farce of a so-called coup attempt only shows that that simply isn’t going to happen. Far from removing what they perceived as a ‘threat’ to Turkey the coup plotters only succeeded in strengthening Tayyip Erdoğan’s iron control of the country.

Disturbing Echoes Of The Bad Old Days

There is a very good reason why anyone over the age of 50 in Turkey is deeply concerned about the increasing political and social polarisation in the country. They remember all too well when similar divisions in their youth led to the violent clashes of the 1970s and ultimately to the military coup of September 1980.

            I was in living in Ankara in 1968 and 1969 and remember vividly the building tensions. The 1968 upheavals in Europe had made their way to Turkey. Hardly a day went by without an angry demonstration against ‘imperialism’, the United States, the general ‘establishment’ or any of the other assorted evils perceived by students of that generation. Walls at Ankara University were covered with posters urging solidarity with the Palestinians, Che Guevara, Mao Tse-tung. , and, of course, Ho Chi Minh. The anti-capitalism works of the German philosopher Herbert Marcuse became very popular.

            All this made the government extremely nervous. The only way officials knew how to respond was with heavy-handed police action and subsidising squads of right-wing thugs. The stage was set for a decade of escalating violence that routinely resulted in several killings a week.

            I remember going to a dinner party and joking that people should check their guns at the door. It was not a joke when several of the guests then deposited their hand guns on a table by the front door. It was also not a joke when a journalist friend of mine was kidnapped, badly beaten and left for dead in an empty lot. It was a miracle that he survived.

            Of course there are sharp differences between now and then. For one thing, the military is a less obvious source of intervention than it was more than 30 years ago. For another, Turks have more experience at the ballot box and rather like the chance to choose their own rulers.

             The biggest difference, perhaps, is that now it is the government itself fuelling tensions. Not a day goes by without the prime minister accusing his growing number of opponents of being terrorists, atheists, stooges for unnamed foreign powers (everyone understands he means the US, EU, and Israel), or simply working against the National Will. Most politicians offered ritual sympathy to the family of the young man who died recently after being hit with a police tear gas canister. No such words of sympathy from Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan. Instead, he accused the 15-year-old of being a terrorist whose pockets were filled with explosive devices. Those charges might carry more weight if earlier outrageous claims by the prime minister about desecration of a mosque or attacks on a head-scarfed woman had not been proven to be complete lies.

            The immediate causes of these angry, irrational outbursts are the municipal elections and the spreading corruption charges against his cronies and family. Erdoğan is fighting for his political life in these elections scheduled for March 30. The actual outcome in individual cities is much less important than the overall national share of the vote. Erdoğan has been bragging that with 50% of the vote he is essentially invulnerable and the voters love him regardless of any corruption charges. If the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) vote share falls much below 50% those claims go up in smoke and his political future is thrown in doubt. It is unclear how low the AKP vote total would have to go before other forces in the party would summon the courage, if any remains, to get rid of Erdoğan before more damage is done.

            Given that the stakes are so high, will Erdoğan try to rig the elections? Turkey has an enviable record for relatively clean elections, but Erdoğan has demonstrated time and again that his role model is more Vladimir Putin than Thomas Jefferson. His government has routinely bent theoretically independent state institutions to serve his own purposes. His Minister of Interior has been caught on telephone yelling at a prosecutor to arrest and charge a journalist. When the prosecutor demurs, the minister angrily tells him to go ahead and that the government will pass any law needed to cover his action.

            So there is understandable anxiety in the opposition parties about the fairness of the elections. Why, one opposition leader asks, have more than 140 million ballots been printed when Turkey only has about 47 million voters? What is going to happen to those un-used ballots? So far there are no answers.

            These elections will go a long way to show if, and how far, Erdoğan’s electoral star has dimmed. The electoral landscape has changed since he won about 50% of the vote in 2011. His one-time partnership with the movement controlled by Islamic scholar Fetullah Gülen has been irreparably broken. Now the question is how much electoral power does the Gülen movement really have? Can their votes make a difference? Also, will the urban young who demonstrated so vigorously against Erdoğan last summer go to the polls? Can they channel their street anger into anti-Erdoğan votes? And what about the three major Istanbul football clubs? Their millions of supporters have reasons of their own for disliking the prime minister. Will they express their dislike at the polls?

            Meanwhile, scenes from the bad old days continue haunt the country. Football matches and funerals have become platforms for massive anti-government rallies. Unknown assailants attack a Gendarme post and kill three soldiers. Pro-government gangs disrupt political rallies. AKP blocks a legislative investigation of government corruption. Throughout it all the prime minister continues to bellow his increasingly hollow claims that it is the internal and external ‘enemies’ of Turkey that are causing problems. Unfortunately, the March 30 elections will not be the end of these deep divisions in Turkey. The presidential and legislative elections that follow will keep tensions high. One can only hope they don’t escalate into the violence seen not that long ago.

Can You Fool All The People All The Time?

         The political situation in Turkey has gone far beyond what even George Orwell could imagine in his wildest fantasies. Prime Minister Erdoğan and his loyal flunkies are disproving the old adage that ‘You can fool some of the people all the time. You can fool all the people some of the time. But you can’t fool all the people all the time.’

            The fact that there was serious corruption in this government had long been accepted as common knowledge – part of the price of doing business in Turkey. But as long as delicate political balances were maintained and people were making money there was very little incentive to do anything about it.

            Those political balances were upset when the prime minister directly challenged the reclusive Islamic scholar Fetullah Gülen by moving to close private preparatory schools, many of which were owned by Gülen and used as fertile recruiting grounds.

            The explosion of corruption revelations that followed shortly thereafter put Erdoğan squarely on his back foot. The evidence supporting the allegations was compelling and clearly followed a long investigation that was somehow kept secret from the prime minister. Not only were two sons of ministers arrested, but the prime minister was forced to fire three of his ministers implicated in the scandal.

            The Gülen people denied any hand in the investigation. Needless to say these denials were met with scepticism at best.

            Erdoğan’s response was a classic. It was as if he had just read Orwell’s 1984.

First: Vigorously deny the reality that is in front of most people. Do this loudly enough and it sometimes works. Becomes more difficult when some of the alleged conspirators are already in jail.

Second: Do something that always works in xenophobic, conspiracy theory-loving Turkey, blame unnamed foreigners. It helps if you wink and nod and imply that the Americans and Israelis are somehow behind this smear campaign.

Third: Shift the argument. It’s no longer about corruption. It’s about evil forces that want to stop Turkey’s progress or hinder the so-called ‘national will’.

Fourth: And this is the most effective – destroy the evidence. There’s nothing subtle about this move. Just fire hundreds of police officers (who only last summer were praised for their actions against protesters in Istanbul) involved in the investigation. If this is not enough, move to stop all judicial investigations into corruption. Change the laws to limit the power of prosecutors and judges. Fill the ranks with Erdoğan loyalists. Worked in Stalin’s time. Why shouldn’t it work in Erdoğan’s time?

Fifth: Rally the supine and extremely loyalist media. Government outlets are filled with outrage, outrage that anyone would dare impugn the integrity of this government.

Sixth: (Note: it’s important you do this without blushing.) Claim the Moral High Ground. Claim that the police and investigators were part of a ‘parallel’ government whose only goal was to bring down Tayyip Erdoğan. Claim that the government’s actions are simply an effort to assert the rule of law over a ‘secret’ political group (the so-called Gülenists) that had infiltrated state institutions. The trouble with this is that sometimes that Moral High Ground turns out to be nothing more than a pile of sand that keeps shifting. Hard to keep your balance.

         This effort to call black white is not limited to corruption scandals. Police in southern Turkey recently intercepted a truck headed to Syria that allegedly was loaded with arms. Rather than admit they were caught red-handed, as it were, the government resorted to its tried and true manoeuvres:

1.      Deny the allegations of arms smuggling. The truck was filled with ‘humanitarian’ aid to Turkmens in Syria. Of course.

2.      Fire all the police involved in the investigation.

3.      Cover the whole thing up by calling it a ‘State secret.’ Don’t bother explaining why ‘humanitarian’ aid is a so-called state secret.

While it is discouraging that so many in Turkey continue to believe this nonsense, it is very encouraging to see many other courageous people with a great deal of integrity resist Erdoğan’s steam-roller. They are valiantly trying to defend the independence of key institutions such as the judiciary are that under assault by Erdoğan’s hard core supporters.

Meanwhile, lurking not very far under the surface, is a reality even the prime minister cannot deny. The economy is in trouble. The Turkish Lira has depreciated to record low levels, bond yields are shooting up, investment opinion has universally turned negative, and the stock market is tanking. It is not clear yet if these trends will develop into the Perfect Economic Storm, but the warnings are out there. It will be interesting to see how the prime minister deals with this reality.

Ruling Party Rocked By Corruption Claims

Many years ago when I had just returned to Turkey to work in the financial sector a very senior Turkish bureaucrat gave me valuable advice about how to operate in that country.

“I know very well that the rules and regulations in this country are antiquated, contradictory, and often obscure. It seems simple to take advantage of this confusion and make a great deal of money through, shall we say, ‘irregular’ channels. My advice? Avoid this temptation at all costs. Do everything in your power to stay inside the rules. One thing we (Turkish officials) are good at is finding out about the little games people play to get very rich. Whether or not we do anything about it depends entirely upon circumstances at the time. But trust me, if you ever cross anyone in power, displease them in any way, they will pull out your file and make your life miserable as they reveal all your activities.”

In other words, “You can get away with anything you want. But do understand that someone, somewhere knows exactly what you are doing. And when it suits them they will lower the boom right on top of your head.” I have seen this happen time and again in Turkey.

This admonition came to mind when I read about the latest corruption scandal to rock Turkey. In an operation that seemingly was a surprise to the prime minister – who notoriously hates surprises of any kind -- police officials arrested a number of people close to the government, including the sons of three cabinet ministers, on corruption charges. When searching the home of the general manager of a state bank officials found shoe boxes filled with $4.5 million. The allegations are continuing to spread and now involve the Minister for European Affairs.

Rumours of corruption in high places have been circulating in Turkey for years. But up to now it was in no one’s interest or ability to do anything about it. Word of pay-offs to get projects completed would be greeted with a shrug of the shoulder. “What’s new? This is just the price of doing business.”

Suddenly, out of the blue, someone has decided the time has come to lower the boom. Turkey is no blushing virgin in matters of corruption, and this is not the first time people close to the government have been have been caught lining their own pockets. But why did this come out right now? What brought these claims to surface now in such a dramatic fashion? Who are they really aimed at? Who is behind them? How could this investigation have been going on for a year without anyone in the government realizing what was happening?The Minister of the Interior apparently learned about his son’s arrest on television. And this man is in charge of the police?! Either he is completely incompetent or strong forces outside the government’s control are at work here.

Needless to say the country is filled with rumours of great conspiracies involving the usual suspects of Israel and the United States. Also coming into the spot light is the reclusive Islamic scholar Fetullah Gülen whose followers allegedly control much of the police and judiciary. Gülen was one of Prime Minister Erdoğan’s early supporters. But the two fell out when Erdoğan moved to close the private college preparatory schools, many of which were run by Gülen’s people. Gülen has adamantly denied any involvement in the latest investigation. But those denials do not find many believers in Turkey.

The government’s first response to this investigation was straight from the pages of George Orwell. They fired about 30 senior police officials, including the police chief of Istanbul, involved in the investigation. “How dare you do your job?!!”  This is the same police chief who earned Erdogan's high praise for cracking down hard on the protesters around Gezi Park last spring. No one has said a word about the substance of the investigation. There was not even a ritual statement about the evils of corruption. No, all they could do was claim that the investigation was somehow ‘dirty’, the result of a plot to undermine the government.

An added twist is the involvement of a shadowy Iranian Turk who was allegedly involved in the illegal, sanctions-busting gold trade with Iran. According to initial allegations he was also directly involved in bribing certain Turkish ministers for several items like building permissions and help with getting passports and visas for relatives.

The only thing that is clear right now is that this investigation could not come at a worse time for Prime Minister Erdoğan. He faces three key elections – municipal, presidential, and general – in the next 18 months. While he could shrug off massive protests last spring from the urban, liberal segment of Turkey, he may have more trouble with this one. His party came to power claiming to bring a new, clean style of governing to Turkey. As these corruption revelations continue to dominate headlines even his strong supporters could begin to rebel at the seeming hypocrisy of those claims.

For the first time since he came roaring to power more than 10 years ago the prime minister seems to be on his back foot. Where does he draw the line on support for some of his closest allies, many of whom have become very rich? Can he escape the fall-out from the steady revelations of corruption in high places? Can he continue to claim the ethical high ground?

Meanwhile the press and social media in Turkey are consumed with speculation about this investigation. Pictures of cash counting machines and millions of dollars hidden in shoe boxes in the suspects’ apartments dominate the front pages. There are claims that four ministers are about to resign or get fired. Who will be next? And then there is the billion-dollar question. Who is behind this drama? 

Strange Days In Turkey

What on earth is going on in Turkey these days? At a time when the country has serious economic, foreign and domestic policy problems the government seems to be focusing on minor issues that threaten to unravel the aura of progress and omnipotence created by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) over the last 10 years.

Vindictive reprisals continue against anyone accused of being associated with the Gezi Park protests last spring. Students suspected of involvement have been thrown out of university dormitories. Others have had their state grants revoked. The list of journalists fired by easily intimidated media bosses continues to grow. Companies that are accused of not toeing the government’s line are threatened with massive tax inspections.

Businessmen I have spoken with are convinced their telephones, emails and faxes are tapped. One business leader said his employees do not use mobile phones or faxes. “We’ll talk when I am in London next month,” was his response to a question. Such is the paranoia among business leaders outside the charmed government circle that when you do get an interview you are likely to be asked to remove the battery from your mobile phone. “They can listen to anything you know.” George Orwell where are you?

 

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has now carried his vendetta against university students to new levels in decreeing that co-ed dormitories or even private apartments will no longer be allowed. The ensuing uproar among his fellow countrymen living in the 21^st century did not faze the prime minister. He may well have calculated that any uproar in that segment of society will only strengthen his base before the upcoming municipal elections.

But in a bizarre move that threatens to break open the long-festering dispute within the ruling party the prime minister recently moved to close the so-called dershanes, private cram courses to prepare students for the critical university entrance exam. The move ostensibly was aimed at levelling the playing field for university applicants by removing the advantage of wealthy children who can afford the courses.

The problem for Erdoğan, and indeed for his entire party, is that the move directly challenges one of his major supporters, the shadowy but powerful Islamic scholar Fetullah Gülen who established many of the dershanes. From his farm in the United States, where he fled from legal action in Turkey many years ago, Gülen controls a vast ‘movement’ of supporters in Turkey and other countries.

Fetullah Gulen

Gülen says he symbolizes the ‘soft’ power of Islam and devotes his efforts to sponsoring schools and health care facilities around the world. The dershanes are a key part of his program in Turkey. In addition to providing the required exam tutoring many people in Turkey say Gülen also uses the school to recruit members for his ‘movement’.

Gülen and Erdoğan, who hates any competing power base, have never been close. But as long as Erdoğan was working for increased religious influence in the Turkish government Gülen lent his support. But now that Gülen’s movement has gained power within Turkey through strong positions in the judiciary and police it can more easily oppose Erdoğan.

Where Erdoğan was strident, harsh and unrepentant Gülen would appear to be softer, more conciliatory. During the Gezi Park protests last spring when Erdoğan was relying on tear gas and police batons Gülen would issue impenetrable statements seeming to urge – as far as anyone could understand them in Turkish or English – dialogue and conciliation. Gülen, whose supporters have been accused of driving the so-called Ergenekon case against alleged coup plotters, has recently urged that the elderly plotters should be released from their long prison sentences. Divisions between President Abdullah Gül, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç and Erdoğan surfaced during the demonstrations with Gül and Arınç urging more tolerance. Since then Gül has missed no opportunity to distance himself from Erdoğan’s increasingly divisive policies.  

Which way will President Gul move?

Now, with the policy on the dershanes, Erdoğan is forcing an open break with the Gülen movement. Gülen has used the newspaper Zaman, to condemn the move against the dershanes and to urge his supporters to remain strong the face of opposition.

It is difficult to see a clear winner in this contest between two camps within the religiously oriented AKP. Ministers assumed close to the Gülen movement are dropping broad hints that Erdoğan has only a short time left in active politics and that the jockeying for power has begun within the post-Erdoğan AKP. President Abdullah Gül has been particularly coy about his plans. Will he run for president again? Or will be step down and become Turkey’s next prime minister? At moment he is the most popular politician in Turkey. He will calculate his next step very carefully indeed.

In theory, internal party rules ban Erdoğan and 72 other AKP members of parliament, from running again. This apparently leaves Erdoğan no choice but to run for the non-partisan presidency. While no one doubts that he could change the party rules in a minute, Erdoğan has often said he will do no such thing.

The rub for Erdoğan is that currently the presidency is largely a ceremonial post with no real power. He is trying desperately to change that and create an executive presidency along French lines.  But is by no means clear that he has the required support in parliament for the constitutional change required for a change in the nature of the presidency. Again, certain ministers close to the Gülen movement are dropping hints that the issue is off the table. President Gül, for one, has publicly stated his opposition.

Are we witnessing the frantic actions of someone facing the end of his absolute control? Or are these manoeuvres aimed merely at solidifying his base to repel all challengers? It is too early to tell for sure. But meanwhile, serious issues for Turkey continue to mount. And time is one luxury the country certainly does not have.