Did Turkey's Shrewdest Politician Miscalculate This Time Around?

It flies in the face of recent Turkish history even to consider the possibility -- but has President Tayyip Erdoğan badly miscalculated the chances for his ruling AKP party in the June 23^rd re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election? Against all odds the opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoğlu won by a very narrow margin in the original election on March 31^st. Incensed at losing the base of his support Erdoğan ordered the allegedly independent High Election Commission to review the results for fraud. Unsurprisingly, the Commission found enough ‘evidence’ to annual the election and order a re-run.

             Since 2002 Erdoğan has had an almost perfect score in Turkish elections. When his party didn’t do well he simply ordered another election in which the offending results were predictably reversed. Given his total control of the media, suppression of opposition, control of the judiciary and, most importantly, control of patronage the only surprising thing about those elections is that his victory margin was not wider.

Erdogan with his son-in-law

            On the surface, the Istanbul do-over appears to be more of the same. Reject the unfavourable result and resort to time-tested means of government spending, immense rallies, accusations that the opposition is nothing more than a front for ‘foreign interests seeking to weaken Turkey,’ even more suppression of the media, etc. etc. to secure a comfortable victory in the re-run. Is there a chance this one will be any different? Very difficult. But this time the situation is a bit different.

1.     For the first time, the economy is not Erdoğan’s friend. The economy is in recession and the currency is sinking fast as the hapless Central Bank and Finance Ministry remain firmly on the sidelines. Prices are skyrocketing with inflation at 20% plus. Unemployment is about 15% and even higher among young people. Turkey used to boast proudly that it was almost self-sufficient in food stuffs. Now, after more than a decade of mismanagement Turkey’s once-dominant agriculture sector is decimated. The country even has to import onions. Grumbles about high prices in the market place often lead to reversals at the polls.

Does Binali Yildirm have the drive and stamina to carry Istanbul for the AKP

2.     The candidate. Erdoğan is used to running against candidates who make a three-toed sloth look energetic. Now, in Ekrem Imamoğlu, the AKP is facing a young, smart, articulate, very active candidate who won against all odds in March. In contrast, the AKP candidate is the old stalwart and long-time Erdoğan ally Binali Yildirm who seems tired and vaguely disinterested – looking forward to putting his feet up and having a nice cup of tea rather than chasing votes around Istanbul. A nice enough person, but one who doesn’t compare well to the younger, more dynamic opponent. One local commentator put it very well when he said that Imamoğlu doesn’t represent just a single party. He represents a much more widespread, general movement that wants change. This wave could catch AKP off-guard.

Is Imamoglu riding a big wave of popular support

3.     The opposition is finally getting smart and tactical. For years Erdoğan feasted off the idiocy of the opposition that continued to split into factions that individually never threatened AKP’s stranglehold on the electorate. In the March 31^st election the opposition parties – mainly the Kurdish HDP – put aside their petty feuds and decided to support Imamoğlu. And guess what? Together they beat the AKP. The lesson seems to have been learned because the HDP has already announced that it will support Imamoğlu. Important in Istanbul because it’s the largest Kurdish city in the world. There’s even a chance that Imamoğlu will get the support of the small religiously-oriented Felicity Party that could refrain from fielding its own candidate.

4.     The AKP is not as united as previously. The AKP used to enter elections with a full-throated, unified roar of support for whoever the candidate was. This time seems different. It appears there were many within the AKP unhappy about annulling the March 31^st election. Apparently the decision to challenge was promoted strongly by Berat Albayrak, the President’s extremely ambitious son-in-law who also serves as Finance Minister. Rumour has it that he is not universally liked within AKP.

5.     Then there’s the perpetual rumour of a new party being formed to appeal to the traditional socially-conservative AKP voters who like democracy and oppose the one-man rule of Tayyip Erdoğan. While these rumours have been circulating for years, they seem to be getting more traction now. They focus on the well-respected former Finance Minister Ali Babacan and former President Abdullah Gül. If – and it remains a very big ‘if’ -- this come to pass it could seriously threaten Erdoğan’s total control by peeling away up to 50 AKP members of parliament. This is why Erdoğan’s supporters are doing everything possible to throw mud on Babacan and Gül by, among other things, calling them closet supporters of the exiled cleric Fetullah Gulen who is blamed for the abortive 2016 coup attempt.

            Does all this mean that Erdoğan’s AKP will lose the new Istanbul election? Hardly. It is very risky forecasting defeat for a leader who controls so many levers of power – the media, the judiciary, patronage and government spending.  I am sure that Erdoğan will use every official and some unofficial tools to control the vote. Every bit of slander he throws at the opposition is repeated endlessly by his acolytes on TV or in the printed media. I doubt that Imamoğlu will be allowed much more than token appearances on TV.

            But Imamoğlu has a few tools of his own. Social media is powerful in Turkey, and he has a big presence there. He is also an energetic and tireless campaigner who emphasizes his appeal to all the varied segments of Istanbul’s 13 million people. Then there’s the hard-to-measure but increasingly apparent Erdoğan fatigue factor. People seem to be getting tired of the bombast that is beginning to sound hollow as it is no longer accompanied by economic triumphs. Maybe Istanbul is the place to start.