Why Now?

Turkey is learning the first lesson of all aspiring premier league countries – ignore international organizations when you don't like their decisions.

The United States simply ignored the United Nations when it failed to win the UN’s support for invading Iraq in 2004. Germany and France simply ignored the Maastricht Treaty when their budget deficits exceeded the rules of the treaty. And now Turkey is ignoring a United Nations’ report that didn’t agree with Turkey’s claims on the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

The United Nations had a commissioned a report on the incident that occurred in June 2010 when a Turkish ship commissioned by a group that some consider a terrorist organization tried to run the blockade and deliver its cargo directly to Gaza. The Israelis intercepted the ship in international waters, boarded it, and wound up killing nine Turks in the ensuing fight. Turkey protested vigorously while Israel said it had every right to maintain the blockade to stop potential weapons smuggling to Hamas-controlled Gaza.

Turkey reacted to the report with all the self-righteous indignation it could muster. They sounded as if Turkey were the only country with a right to self-interest. The prime minister said the report had no basis and that Turkey would reduce its diplomatic ties with Israel to the bare minimum. Other Turkish ministers huffed and puffed and made thinly veiled warnings about increased Turkish naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Just what this already explosive area needs.

The fact that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan simply does not like Israel or its equally combative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already well known. But why the explosion now? After all, the incident in question happened over a year ago. Why is Turkey all of a sudden making all sorts of veiled threats about events in the Eastern Mediterranean? While the death of nine Turkish citizens is indeed lamentable, it is far less than wholesale slaughter of innocents in neighbouring Syria. Syria gets a slap on the wrist while Israel – and Cyprus – get dark warnings of military intervention.

Oil and Gas

One possible explanation could be Turkey’s annoyance at being left out of the promising oil and gas exploration in the waters between Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon. Cyprus intends to explore the famous Block 12 in its southern territorial waters close to where the Israelis have made a major discovery. Turkey has objected vehemently to the Cypriot exploration. Turkish officials say that internationally-recognized and European Union member Cyprus has no right unilaterally to explore for hydrocarbons in its own territorial waters. According to them this exploration would somehow have negative implications for the isolated, economically struggling self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus that occupies about one-third of the island and is recognized only by Turkey.

Try as it might Turkey has been unable to get a single other country to join it in recognizing the Turkish part of Cyprus. This must be frustrating, especially as a group like the Sovereign Military Order of Saint John of Jerusalem of Rhodes and of Malta without a square meter of land has diplomatic relations with more than 100 countries.

But beyond the frustration and embarrassment, Turkey is desperate for oil and gas. The country has only negligible hydrocarbon resources and spends upwards of $90 billion/year importing almost every drop of oil and gas its rapidly growing economy needs. It most certainly wants to be included in the promising exploration in the Eastern Med. But this is not going to be easy.

The areas currently being explored are nowhere near Turkish territorial waters, and it is not at all clear what the legal basis would be to object just because the perceived rights of an unrecognized entity like the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus would be ignored. This could change if a few other countries would join Turkey in recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but for the moment this possibility seems remote.

The smoothest option would be for the troubled island to find a way to re-unite and bring the Turkish north into the international and European Union fold. Unfortunately, reunification seems more remote than ever. The Greeks in the south see no point in bringing in the poorer northern part of the island, and Turkey has shred all pretence of an independent northern Cyprus by imposing harsh conditions for any potential reunification - - regardless of what the native Turkish Cypriots might want.

So far the Republic of Cyprus has ignored Turkish objections to the exploration, and supported by the European Union, Russia, the United States as well as several other countries it is unlikely to stop looking for major oil and gas reserves.
Turkey is becoming much more adventuresome in its foreign policy, but will it risk serious confrontation by using military force to intervene in the oil and gas exploration by another sovereign country? Under previous governments I would definitely say no. But Prime Minister Erdoğan is taking the country in a new, assertive and aggressive direction. It remains to be seen just how far he will push Turkish claims in this region.

So Much For 'Zero' Problems

All of a sudden Turkey’s famous ‘Zero Problems’ diplomatic rhetoric has morphed into multiple problems on multiple fronts. In addition to mounting problems with Cyprus, Iraq and Iran Turkey has done something unique in simultaneously achieving hostile relations with both Syria and Israel. This is not easy


Turkey’s hyperactive reaction to the recently released United Nations report on the by-now infamous Mavi Marmara incident of June 2010 in which nine Turkish citizens were killed as they tried to breach the Israeli blockade of Gaza shows Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan’s unique ability to make justified anger look slightly foolish and ultimately self-defeating. He demanded an apology from Israel, didn’t get one, and used the UN report to escalate the issue

In all their huffing and puffing about the incident the Turkish leaders ignored the fact that the report actually said the blockade was legal and that Israel had every right to defend itself from terrorist arms smuggling. The Turks didn’t want to hear this. What they latched onto was the report’s justified criticism of the clumsy reaction of the Israel forces as they boarded the ship in international waters and killed nine people in the process of taking over the ship.

Erdoğan seized on this part of the report and instantly ordered a down-grade of relations with Israel and stopped all military cooperation. On top of this the Turkish government made heavy-breathing noises about escorting its merchant ships (as if the Mavi Marmara was a normal merchant ship and not deliberately trying to provoke the reaction it got) with its navy. One wonders what the Turkish Navy will do when and if another attempt to break the blockade is made inside Israeli territorial waters. The fact that this heated rhetoric might reduce Turkey’s credibility on the world stage never seems to have occurred to him.

It’s important to remember that this virulent anti-Israel stance is not generated by any Turkish version of Islamic fundamentalism. It is more just Tayyip Erdoğan being Tayyip Erdoğan. He cannot stand dissent in any form, least of all when it comes from someone he detests like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. No one in the Turkish government dares to disagree with Erdogan, and he naively expects the same obedience from leaders of other countries. In Erdoğan’s mind only one country is justified in having national interests, and that’s Turkey.

While all this was going on Turkey announced that it had agreed to install American anti-missile radar. The Islamic press in Turkey is working overtime to convince its gullible readers that this radar is really aimed at Israel, not Iran. Right. It’s doubtful that many Iranians share that particular twist of reality. The Turks were so nervous about installing this radar that they demanded any reference to NATO be removed in the documentation. Do they seriously think this is going to fool the Iranians?

Meanwhile, relations with Syria are not getting any better as the Syrian leader Basher Assad continues to defy Erdoğan’s calls for reform. Not too long ago Turkey held up its relations with Syria as a model of how neighbours should treat each other. Now Turkey is nervously hosting thousands of Syrian dissidents and is even considering joining international sanctions against the Syrian regime.

Then there is the PKK, the violent military wing of the Kurdish movement that continues to attack Turkish soldiers. After several bloody attacks Erdoğan’s patience – never in great supply anyway – ran out and he ordered air strikes against suspected PKK basis in northern Iraq. There is even talk in the hyper-nationalistic Turkish press of sending troops into Iraq to clean out the PKK bases. The fact that all this has been tried before to no avail does not seem to have occurred to anyone. I’m sure the Iraqis would love to see thousands of Turkish troops cross their border.

As if this wasn’t enough another Turkish minister made threatening noises about using the navy to block the attempts of the Republic of Cyprus to search for off-shore gas in its own territorial waters. He didn’t say exactly what international legal principle gives Turkey the right to interfere with exploration in another country’s internationally-recognized territorial waters. It would be interesting to learn just how the Turks would justify such a move that would be loudly condemned by the rest of the world, including Russia and the United States. Turkey could easily brush off criticism from the European Union (Cyprus is a member of the EU), but it might have more trouble with Russia and the US.

And, of course, there is the question of Cyprus itself. The Republic of Cyprus is internationally recognized and a member of the European Union. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is recognized only by Turkey. Chances of re-unification of the island have never seemed less likely. The Greeks in the south ask themselves what would be gained by taking over the problems of their poorer Turkish neighbours, particularly with the stiff conditions that Erdoğan has demanded. Failing unification, what will Turkey do if, as likely, it fails to get any other country to join it in recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus? Will it formally annex Northern Cyprus, or will the uneasy status quo continue? No easy answers, and bombast doesn’t really solve much in the real world.

So much for ‘Zero Problems.’

Turn Left At Aristotle

The Hellespont. A name fabled in history, the narrowest point of the Dardanelles Straits separating Europe from Asia. The place where Xerxes with his Persian army of 300,000 in about 480 B.C. crossed into Europe on his way to Thermopylae and ultimately Salamis where his fleet was destroyed by  Themistocles. Frustrated at his initial failure to cross the straits Xerxes ordered his army to give the swiftly flowing passageway 300 lashes to show it who was boss. It must have worked because his huge force was able to cross on a hastily constructed bridge – the only time a bridge has crossed the Hellespont.

About 150 years later Alexander and his army of 30,000 tough Macedonians and their allies together with a cavalry of 5,000 had a smoother crossing on rented galleys. The crossing was unopposed and Alexander turned the transport over to his general Parmenion while he dashed off to nearby Troy to pay homage to Achilles. As his galley neared the Asian shore he hurled his spear onto the beach to declare his intention to conquer Asia. A few days later he began his long march to India  by crushing a much larger force of Persians and Greek mercenaries at the River Granicus. About a year later Alexander repeated  by this feat by destroying the Persian army once and for all at the Battle of Issus in what is now southern Turkey.

As we waited for the ferry near the 15^th century fortress of Kilit Bahir (Lock of the Sea) to Canakkale these images of ancient history suddenly seemed not so ancient. The landscape has not changed very much, and the area has been spared the worst of the unlovely development that plagues much of the Turkish coast. You can’t help thinking of people like Xerxes, Alexander, Leander and Hero, and Byron. After Bryon made the difficult swim across the straits in 1810 he admitted that he didn’t see how Leander had much energy left for his tryst with Hero after he repeatedly swam across the straits to be with her.

Friends had invited us to their home in Assos – just across from the Greek island of Mytilene – and told us to take a left at the statue of Aristotle, go past a defunct cheese shop and wind up at their house literally on top of the ancient city where Aristotle once taught. It’s a long drive from Istanbul, but, once beyond Tekirdag, the road goes through beautiful farm land with fields of sun flowers before winding down to the long Gallipoli peninsula separating the Dardanelles from the Gulf of Saroz.

Aristotle at the entrance to Assos

One reason the Gallipoli peninsula remains relatively free of development is that most of the area is a national park dedicated to the memory of the Battle of Gallipoli in 1915 when allied forces tried, and failed, to knock Ottoman Turkey out of World War I. The entire battle field is dotted with monuments and cemeteries – none more poignant than the one at a place called Lone Pine where hundreds of young Australian soldiers of the Light Horse Brigade are buried. I have often swum at ANZAC (Australia New Zealand) cove, looked up at the imposing cliffs and thought “They never had a chance against the Turkish forces perched on top.” It was curious sort of battle where the soldiers developed a grudging respect for each other. One monument captures this attitude well. A giant Turkish sergeant carries a wounded British soldier to the British trenches, puts him gently down and returns unmolested to his own side of the battle.

As the ferry pulls into Canakkale on the Asian side you can see a replica of the real hero of the naval operations at Gallipoli. Not some grand battleship bristling with guns, but a tubby little mine layer named Nusret. It was mines very cleverly placed by the crew of the Nusret that caused so much damage to the allied fleet that it gave up the idea of forcing the straits.

Once on the Asian side you wind up a steep hill and suddenly the plain of Troy opens in front of you. A small sign indicates a dusty road leading to the excavation of several layers of cities, once which could have been the fabled Troy of Homer’s epic poem. Perhaps, perhaps not. But it does not take a great deal of imagination to sit on the walls looking over the plain toward the sea and picture Achilles, Hector, Agamemnon, Priam, Patroclus, Odysseus and all the others involved in that long war more than 3,000 years ago.

One thing Homer, or other poets, got right was the description of the geography of the region. Our friends in Assos had descriptions of 19^th century British travelers who rode all over the Troad with their copies of the Iliad in one hand and a map in the other. According to them the descriptions in the Iliad of the hills, streams, islands, and distant mountains match almost perfectly with the current topography – at least the topography of the mid-19^th century.

In this part of the world ancient history is not ancient at all. It is with us every day as another bit of this history is uncovered by your door step. The feats Alexander should be considered part of the current affairs curriculum, not history.

Back To The Barracks

There has been much breathless reporting about the sudden resignations of some of Turkey’s top military officers on the eve of the annual meeting where senior promotions are made. The reports would have us believe that these resignations signal the military’s deep discontent with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The fact that much of the officer corps does not like AKP is not exactly hot news. What really annoys the officers is that there is very little they can do about it. Their once dominant role in Turkish politics has been steadily eroded over the last few years. The military used to regard itself as the only true defender of Ataturk’s Turkey. As such they could decide what was good or bad for the country. Politicians and the democratic process in general were viewed with deep suspicion, and both were dispensable if the need arose.

This was before the advent of AKP and its dominant leader, Tayyip Erdogan. Bolstered by his unprecedented popularity and stunning success at the polls, Erdogan has turned the tables on the military. He is now the one who dictates policy and determines what is good or bad for the country. The military has forced into a subordinated role similar to the military role in most real democracies.

Erdogan maintains this is all done in the name of democracy. True, but there is an undeniable element of revenge. It was the military, after all, that suppressed the forerunners of AKP and supported the jailing of Erdogan himself on charges of inciting tensions in the country. AKP justice officials have returned the favor by jailing several high-ranking military officers on charges (as yet unproven) of plotting to overthrow the civilian government.

In a broader context what has happened to the military merely reflects the larger changes in Turkish society since AKP came to power in 2002. The traditional aggressively secular economic/social/bureaucratic elite that had basically run the country for the last 70 years has been pushed aside by a new elite based in small towns around Anatolia instead of the power centers of Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara. This new elite is socially conservative and angry at the second-class treatment they had to endure for the first 80 years of the Republic. I remember clearly a meeting with one of these Anatolian elite in 2004 when he said the traditional power structure had “abused Ataturk’s legacy for their own ends. It is our turn to rule now.”

A good friend of ours is a charter member of the old elite. He and his wife have busy professional lives and their children go to the one of the best universities in America. He recognizes the changes and says they are not all bad.

“There is a reason that Erdogan gets 50% of the vote. His people work extremely hard. There is no question that the living standards of the lower-middle classes have improved dramatically. For the first time they feel that someone is actually working for them.”

“Just look at Istanbul. The city is much cleaner and public services have improved dramatically. I voted for the opposition party because I think we need a strong opposition, not because I thought they would do a better job running the country. They wouldn’t. Let’s face it. AKP represents the real face of Turkey. We’re not France or Switzerland. We’re Turkey. The so-called Islamic trend is way overdone. The worst thing you can say about many AKP supporters is that they are very conservative country bumpkins. That hardly makes them Islamic fundamentalists.”

“They may have as many corrupt officials as any other Turkish political party, but,” he adds with a wry smile, “at least their corruption appears to be productive.”

Whether Erdogan is becoming a typical autocrat supremely confident in his own opinions and deaf to all criticism is another matter altogether. But for the moment there is no denying that he is the most dominant force in Turkish politics for several decades.

One threat to AKP’s dominance is the economy. They came to power on the back of Turkey’s worst economic crisis, and gained increasing popularity as the country climbed out of that hole and grew rapidly. Erdogan continues to insist that the economy is fine and that Turkey will avoid the problems affecting many other countries. He does not acknowledge, in public at least, the gaping current account deficit, or increasing inflation. Turkey’s continued economic growth depends largely on continued external funding, and there are signs that could become more difficult. Interest rates on two year government bonds are about  8.5 – 9%  and inflation is at least 7%. How long are these very slim real rates of return going to entice investors? One leading economist believes rates will have to increase soon, and this could put some people like real estate developers in a tight spot. Turkey’s growth has been fueled by rapid credit expansion driven by demand for homes and cars. What happens to those borrowers when their interest payments shoot up? Who will they blame? For the moment Erdogan does not want to hear these doubts, but sooner or later inconvenient, very hard economic truths will begin to intrude on his version of reality.

Full Speed Ahead

The fact that Turkey is bursting at the seams is clear even before the plane lands. Our short flight from Athens was in a lazy holding pattern over the Black Sea because traffic had backed up at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport. And this was a 3 pm on a Monday afternoon.

As we pulled up to the jetway I could see planes from every corner of the globe. The passport queue was long, but moved rapidly as each of the booths was manned by officials who took a cursory look at the passport, slammed down the stamp, and waved you through. I remember times past when you could wait 45 minutes. The booths then were manned by only one or two extremely bored officials who laboriously examined each page of your passport to see if you really were the person you claimed to be.

The baggage claim area is dominated by at least three very busy duty free shops where passengers were loading up on relatively inexpensive booze and cigarettes. The road into the city runs along the Sea of Marmara lined with clean parks filled with people escaping the heat and humidity of July in crowded city of 13 million people.

We had not been back to Istanbul since leaving about 18 months ago, and signs of construction activity are evident everywhere you look. Massive new buildings are going up, the tunnel under the Bosphorus has reached its final stages, and the number of cars has seemed to double. The Bosphorus itself seemed more crowded than ever with tankers, bulk carriers, ferries, private yachts, fishing boats, and water taxies. My first impression was that wealth has definitely increased.

The car swept through the 1,500-year old land walls of the old city, along the sea walls and finally around Seraglio point beneath Topkapi Palace to the Galata Bridge across the Golden Horn. We could see the balcony of our old apartment in the Cihangir section of the city where we would sit for hours looking at the incomparable view of the Golden Horn, the old city, the entrance of the Bosphorus and the Princess Islands in the distance.

Hotels are fully booked, but our friends at the Four Seasons along the Bosphorus managed to find us space in this busy season. There are two Four Seasons hotels in Istanbul, and each of them offers the best service by far of any of Istanbul’s great hotels.

View of the old city from the hotel

The next few days were busy with visits with old friends, dinner at favorite restaurants, and, of course, visits to the Covered Bazaar and the Spice Market with an old school friend and his wife who just happened to be visiting Istanbul. While I was loading up on roasted almonds, pistachios, dried apricots and a kilo of baklava Mariella was having lunch with friends in one of the modern shopping centers in a distant section of the city. She is a great advocate of public transport, and reported gleefully that the trip from the shopping center to the Covered Bazaar to meet us took only 45 minutes using the vastly improved metro and tram system. By car it could have taken well over an hour. Even the dolmuses (shared cabs) have improved and many are air conditioned.

Sunset at a roof-top restaurant in the Pera neighborhood

One consequence of the country’s economic boom is that the number of cars has increased greatly while the number of roads has not. Evening traffic along the Bosphorus road is a nightmare. One night it took more than an hour to go just over a mile from our hotel to a restaurant up the coast. We would have been much smarter to use a water taxi. When we returned about midnight it was just as bad as the nightclubs and outdoor concert venues were just warming up.

How long can these economic boom times continue with growth of more than 8%? That is the main question people ask themselves. Will this boom be followed by an equally deep recession? Warning lights are beginning to flash. Inflation is creeping up (Turkey is definitely more expensive than it was 18 months ago), rapid credit expansion fuelled by demand for cars and homes, current account deficit exploding to record numbers, and financing for large infrastructure projects becoming more difficult. Groups that won large privatization projects like the Ankara natural gas distribution system, the port of Izmir, or several electricity distribution areas had to withdraw because they couldn’t find financing. The stock market has declined sharply this year and the Turkish lira has begun a long overdue depreciation.

So far the government maintains its usual upbeat tone. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan steadfastly claims that the global economic crisis will not affect Turkey at all. The Central Bank governor who recently warned against borrowing in foreign currency was encouraged to change his tune. A few days later he, too, said everything was rosy. Time will tell. But for the moment the vitality and energy of the country are driving it forward at a rapid pace.