Has
the tide started to change? Has the negative, extremist populism that has
dominated political rhetoric for so long slowly begun to recede? Recent
elections in Europe and the UK certainly give some hope to those who reject the
hard-line uncompromising positions of either the far left or the far (alt)
right.
In France, recently elected Emmanuel
Macron just saw his newly-formed party roar to an overwhelming victory in the
crucial first round of parliamentary elections. On current form his party, La République
En Marche, should win more than 400 of the 557 seats in parliament. With this
victory, he completely overturned the political status quo by burying the
traditional parties of the Left and Right. Macron, France’s anti-Trump, showed
just how meaningless those traditional alignments have become, and in the
process breathed some long-overdue fresh air and vitality into French politics.
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| He is now firmly in control |
He now has the power to enact the
sweeping legislative reforms he promised to get the French economy growing.
Among the first items on his ambitious agenda is reform of France’s notorious
labor law that makes it very expensive to hire anyone and almost impossible to
lay anyone off – regardless of prevailing economic conditions.
Macron’s desire to introduce much
more flexibility into French labor has – predictably -- incurred the wrath of
the far left, who traditionally reject any move to relax the
current strait jacket of regulations. Jean Luc Melanchon, leader of the
far-left La France Insoumise (Unbowed France) has warned Macron that he should
not tinker with the employment laws. The fact that his party received only a
negligible share of the vote doesn’t seem to have made much impression of
Melanchon. Like many people, he severely underestimated the desire of the vast
majority of French people for a thorough, pragmatic approach to get their
country moving again. Macron’s type of pragmatism now has the chance to do more
for the sans culottes of France than
anything the traditional Left or Right have to offer.
As a deeply committed Europhile,
another key part of Macron’s agenda is to deepen and strengthen the European
Union. He has already moved to re-ignite the Franco-German motor of the EU. It
is not all clear just how much Chancellor Angela Merkel shares his views about
deeper integration, but with her recent comments about the EU having to act much
more independently from the United Kingdom and the United States it is possible
see much greater Franco-German cooperation for more integration.
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| They hold the keys to the European Union |
It is doubtful that anyone could
live up to all the expectations that Macron has generated. He may find that using great power effectively is much more difficult than getting such power in the first place. Sooner or later he
will stumble and generate a backlash from even his most fervent supporters. But, in the
meantime, it will be fun to watch him trying to pull a country as steeped in
tradition as France into the 21st century. Right now, he has the
wind in his sails. One only hopes he is a good enough sailor to survive the
inevitable storms.
The reversal of fortune between
France and Britain could not be more dramatic. After a startling election last
week that saw the ruling Conservatives unexpectedly lose seats, Britain is now
drifting rudderless in very dangerous seas. For years the British political and
chattering classes have used France as a shining example of why Britain must
leave the European Union. “How can we be tied to this failing enterprise called
the European Union? Just look at France! What a mess! They will never get out
of that hole.”
Now, it is suddenly Britain that
looks old and bungling compared with the youth and vitality across the channel.
Macron is only 39, while British Prime Minister Theresa May looks very old and
haggard at 60. We are already hearing voices that maybe the so-called Hard
Brexit – a complete break from the EU – might not be the smartest thing to push
for at this time. These concerns are supported by recent economic data that
show Britain at the bottom of the league table. First quarter growth in Britain
was only 0.2% while the Eurozone recorded growth in the same period of 0.6%.
The much-derided Euro has also picked up strength against Sterling.
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| Whoops! This wasn't supposed to happen. |
We were recently in Holland,
traditionally a strong British ally, and heard almost a sigh of relief at the
prospect of Britain leaving the EU. “For years, all they did was say ‘no’ to every initiative for closer
European integration. They wanted to opt out from this, opt out from that. In
short, they always fought harder for British exceptionalism than for the whole
concept of a strong European Union. It will be a relief to have them gone. Now
we can get on with things,” said one senior Dutch executive.
I doubt that Macron will be in a
mood to do Britain any favors in the upcoming Brexit negotiations. I expect him
to pay much more attention to moving his aggressive EU agenda forward than
worrying about Britain’s continued relations – if any – with the union.
The anticipated re-election of
Chancellor Merkel in Germany and the election results in Holland and France
demonstrate that, in Europe at least, the vast majority of voters want nothing
to do with political extremes. They want solutions to their problems, not the
theoretical rantings of the extreme Left or Right. It remains to be seen if the
shock results in Britain will have the same results.
