Pathetic,
simply pathetic. While Tayyip Erdoğan was giving a Master Class in politics on
his way to victory in Turkey’s presidential race his opposition was AWOL
(absent without leave.) Opposition voters had a golden opportunity to derail
Erdoğan’s presidential plans, but their inability (unwillingness?) to
capitalise on this opportunity means that the future of Turkey is completely
out of their hands.
Even with all his manipulation,
public financing and suppression of the media Erdogan got in with just under
52% of the vote. One can only wonder what the outcome would have been if even
half of the 13 million voters (out of 53 million eligible voters) who failed to
vote had gone to the polls. Even the former president Ahmet Necdet Sezer
refused to vote. Some couldn’t be bothered to get off their sun beds in Bodrum
or leave the cocktail party circuit in Bebek to vote. Others, like a young columnist in the Daily Telegraph of London, justified their failure to vote on the grounds that the election was not ‘true’ democracy and that they didn’t want to participate in a sham election. Unbelievable! While they preserved their precious democratic scruples
Erdoğan was busy tightening his iron grip over Turkey. They have only
themselves to blame for the outcome.
Of course he’s ruthless! Of course
he plays hard ball and appeals to baser instincts of his followers! Of course
he manipulates wherever he can! What did they expect? Politics in Turkey is a
‘full-contact’ sport. It is not a parlour game limited to polite discussions in beautiful
homes along the Bosphorus.It’s about
time they woke up to the realities of modern Turkey.
If the opposition ever wants to beat
Erdoğan it has to learn a few hard lessons.
1.
Come
up with a message that means something to the mass of the people. What is your positive vision for Turkey's future? Simply
focusing on Erdoğan’s obvious faults has failed over and over again. I have
never heard any opposition candidate say something positive, give any hint on
how he would improve services to the people. AKP candidates are masters at
this, always focusing on services they provide for the people. Do something For the people rather than lecture To them about the failures of Tayyip
Erdoğan. Essentially the so-called main opposition CHP has to ask itself a very
serious question. Why has it won so few
elections since the introduction of multi-party politics in Turkey after World
War II? What exactly does it stand for? Could it be that the mass of Turkish voters rejects everything it
stands for? Instead of blaming the voters maybe it’s time to blame the message.
2.
Atatürk,
the founder of the Turkish Republic, died in 1938. Let him rest in peace. Any
political party that wants to be successful today has to do more than repeat ad nauseam pithy little phrases from his
speeches. Atatürk set the general direction of Turkey, but it may come as a
shock to most opposition politicians that the man himself is no longer
that relevant to the vast majority of Turks. Maybe he should be. But that’s beside the point. He isn’t. And no one
understands this better than Tayyip Erdoğan. Say what you will about the man,
he understands his people. The opposition is lost in a time warp and hasn’t got
a clue.
3.
Admit
that AKP has a vastly superior political organisation. Learn from it. Copy it,
if necessary. It’s much more than giving away free refrigerators or coal or any
other gift. Effective politics is hard work. Without a strong grass-roots organisation in every town in Turkey
and without a massive get-out-the-vote effort you will never win. You will
always be seen as a creature of the so-called ‘elite’ – far removed from
ordinary people who care much more about jobs than about
vague threats that Tayyip Erdoğan poses for Atatürk’s legacy.
4.
Perhaps
the CHP and MHP should merge, formalise the arrangement they had during the
presidential election. CHP likes to pretend it is a social-democratic party.
But the reality is that it is just as nationalistic as MHP. Of course such a
move would alienate some CHP’s more effete members, but so what? They don’t bother to
vote anyway. The genuine political left –
the real social democratic movement -- in Turkey is minuscule and doesn’t
count for much. So why shouldn’t the nationalists join forces?
Will
the CHP make any effort to change? More important, will it even recognize that
its policies must change to meet the needs of today’s Turkey? Very, very
doubtful. The early signs are that the party will be consumed by yet another
sterile leadership battle rather than focus on the obvious need for basic reform
of the party. Erdoğan could not buy a
better opposition party. He must be laughing all the way to the presidential
palace.
Where does
Turkey go now? Will Erdoğan be able to get his wish and replace the present parliamentary
system with a strong executive presidency? Maybe, maybe not. While he won the
presidency he didn’t get as many votes as his sycophants were hoping. It may be
difficult for the Erdoğan-less AKP to get a large enough majority in the next
general election to change the constitution.
What will the
current president Abdullah Gül do? Will he fight for a senior position in the
new AKP or will he retire gently into the night? It is no secret that the Erdoğan
people would love to push him not-so-gently into the night. For one thing he
has stated several times that he prefers the parliamentary system to the
strong, executive presidency. He also presents a less strident, more amenable
face to Turkey’s Western partners.
How will Turkey
deal with the looming constitutional crisis when Erdoğan starts to act like an
executive president instead of a figure head? Even with a puppet prime minister
Erdoğan may have problems keeping the AKP together.
Turkey faces
serious internal and external challenges in the next several months. Those
people who piously abstained from voting in this election have to decide
whether they are going to help the country through these crises or whether they
will remain in the stadium seats as mere spectators.
Tercih onlarin. The choice is theirs.
