Few
places better than the island of Cyprus demonstrate the futility, the touchingly naïve earnestness, embodied in
the English word ‘should’. Given the climate, resources, relatively well educated
population and rich history the Eastern Mediterranean island should be a shining example of harmony
and prosperity. It isn’t.
In
addition to the recent, largely self-inflicted, financial collapse the island
suffers from a long-standing division between the 800,000 Greek Cypriots in the
southern part of the island and the roughly 300,000 Turks who live in the
politically and economically isolated northern part of the island. About half
of the Turkish population is native Turkish Cypriots while the others are
immigrants from Anatolia.
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| This island 'should' be a paradise |
The
Greek part of Cyprus is the internationally recognized and European Union
member Republic of Cyprus. The self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus is recognized only by Turkey. It survives largely on casinos, tourism
and about $600 million in annual subsidies from Turkey. Until recently the
Republic of Cyprus enjoyed a much higher income than its northern counterpart. With
the collapse of the Cypriot banking bubble this difference has narrowed
sharply.
Reasonable
people might think that this is the perfect time for the two groups on the
island to overcome their past differences, re-unite and build a prosperous
island that begins to fulfil its potential. Unfortunately, as is often the case
in this part of the world, such people are simultaneously right and wrong. They are
right to believe that a unified
island would be much stronger than a divided island. They are wrong to think this is going to happen any
time soon. Cyprus is very close to the Middle East, and in that part of the
world the mere fact that such a move would
make sense is absolutely no guarantee
that it will happen.
Why
not? How much time do you have? The tangled history of Cyprus involves
centuries of invasion, co-habitation, the sometimes malevolent influence of
religion, colonization, communal strife and, above all, a deeply ingrained
sense of grievance and victimhood.
However,
there are changes in the wind that, according to one astute observer, could change
the narrative, the frozen paradigm of the divided island. Metin Munir, a native
of Cyprus and formerly a prominent columnist with the Turkish daily newspaper Milliyet, has long been sceptical of the
real chances of reunification. Now, however, there are changes that might, just
might, in time help bring the island together.
“The
economic difference between the two sides is diminishing. In addition, Turkey is bringing water to the island from the
mainland and will soon be bringing electricity for much less than it costs to
generate it on the island. The rapprochement between Turkey and Israel also has
the potential to change the situation. If Israel ships its gas through Turkey
via a pipeline there could be a great deal of pressure on Cyprus to do the same
for its offshore gas, or at least sell its gas to Israel who in turn would use
the pipeline to Turkey. The alternative is to build a very expensive LNG plant
on Cyprus. It is difficult to see right now who would spend the $7 - $8 billion
for such a plant when a much cheaper pipeline alternative (Turkey is only 40
miles away) is available.
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| Turkey is so close and so far away |
“Nothing
is going to happen immediately, but the potential for change is emerging. For
one thing there is a lot of sympathy on this side of the island for what the
Greeks are going through right now. One major obstacle is what the Greeks
perceive as Turkey’s belligerent approach to Cyprus. Turkey has to change its
tune, and then we will see what happens.”
He
has a point. No one can accuse Turkish foreign policy of being subtle. Why use
a scalpel when a sledge hammer will do? There is a certain aggressive,
chip-on-the-shoulder attitude in the comments of many Turkish politicians that
make it difficult to create a win-win
rather than an I-win-you-lose
situation. A recent example is Turkey’s heavy-handed threats against the
Cypriot development of the offshore natural gas deposits without including the
Turkish part of the islands.
To
be fair to Turkey, the internal timing for any concessions on Cyprus couldn’t
be worse. The Turkish government is already in tense negotiations with the
Kurds to end decades of conflict. This is prompting outrage on the part of
Turkish nationalists who see any move to accommodate the Kurds as a betrayal of
the very concept of a Turkish nation. Any concessions on Cyprus would send this
outrage off the charts and stir up the old cries of ‘selling out’ their
brothers on the island.
The
best chance for a settlement on the island was in 2004 when negotiations under
the auspices of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan produced a plan that was
overwhelming approved by the Turkish population on Cyprus. The Greek Cypriots,
however, already promised a place in the European Union and prompted by the
Archbishop of Cyprus who called the plan ‘the work of the devil’, rejected the
plan.
Despite
this history, calls for a radical re-think are growing. Former Greek Foreign
Minister Dora Bakoyannis recently expressed her support for reconciliation on
the island.
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| Will these discoveries prompt settlement or strife? |
It
is too early to tell if the faint signs of reconciliation and common sense will
prevail over long-held and possibly no-longer-relevant grievances. But the
world, and more particularly Cyprus, has changed dramatically in the last few
decades. It may just be time to dust off those under-utilized negotiating
skills
